Andy Roddick believes Ben Shelton has a genuine chance against Alexander Zverev in Sunday's US Open final, despite a head-to-head record that heavily favors the German. Zverev leads their rivalry 5-0, including four victories last season, and Shelton has lost the last 10 sets they have played.
That history matters because the two players have not met in 2026. Zverev knows the patterns that have worked against Shelton, while the American will have to find a way to disrupt a matchup that has consistently gone against him. Yet Roddick sees a different Shelton arriving in his first Grand Slam final.
The biggest change has come on the backhand side. Once viewed as the obvious area for opponents to target, Shelton's backhand has held up against both Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe during his run to the final. That has given him more freedom to construct points without constantly trying to protect a weakness.
Roddick believes that development could give Shelton a real opportunity, although he also identified a major obstacle: Zverev's serve. The German's delivery presents a very different challenge from those Shelton faced against Alcaraz and Tiafoe, particularly when it comes to creating the forehands that have driven his run through New York.
Shelton's backhand has changed the equation
Shelton's opponents have repeatedly looked to attack his backhand throughout his career. Alcaraz and Tiafoe followed that same strategy in New York, but neither was able to consistently expose the American on that side.
Roddick believes that improvement has fundamentally altered the way Shelton can approach matches.
“Ben's backhand is holding up like I've never seen it hold up before," he said durign the last episode of Served with Roddick. "The pattern that Foe went to and that Carlos went to, pepper the backhand, that's been the scouting report on Ben for the entire time. Ben has been able to neutralize Carlos (Alcaraz), not most of the time, but a decent amount of the time.”
The former world No. 1 believes Shelton is no longer playing as though he needs to avoid his own weakness. That gives the American more time to trust his baseline game and wait for opportunities rather than forcing the forehand too early.
“The weakness has turned into something that looks a lot more stable. It's not easy to find the leak anymore. And so, you know, the maturity, all that. But it's easy to be a lot of those things when you're not worried about one pattern over and over and over. And you know that your weakness can hold up.”
For Roddick, that has been one of the defining developments of Shelton's tournament. If the backhand remains reliable against Zverev, the American should have enough stability to use his power and athleticism without constantly worrying about being exposed.
“That's been a game changer," Roddick added. "He said that was kind of the whole deal. You know, the fact that that side is holding up and he can switch directions and kind of went into it. So if that stays solid, he's got a real shot.”
Zverev's serve presents a different problem
The difficulty is that Shelton cannot simply reproduce the return patterns that worked against Alcaraz and Tiafoe. Roddick believes Zverev's serve will make it much harder for the American to immediately run around his backhand and attack with his forehand.
“Now the return is going to be very different. As great as Carlos is, the serve isn't Zverev's serve. Right? The second serve isn't. Like he was able to run around Carlos' second serve and get forehands and eat. Same thing with Tiafoe. I don't think he's going to be able to do that with as much consistency.”
Alexander Zverev of Germany during his second round match on day 5 of the 2026 US Open
Zverev's delivery can also create problems through its movement, forcing Shelton to take the ball from less comfortable positions rather than simply stepping around it.
“Zverev's serve goes faster and it turns into the body like a slice. So he's going to be, if he wants to get a forehand, he's going with the spin and then trying to turn it out, which is not an easy thing to do.”
That is why Roddick expects the return battle to be particularly important. Shelton may have improved the weakness that opponents once targeted most aggressively, but Zverev could prevent him from getting into the patterns that allow that improvement to become an attacking advantage.
“The type of serve that you're returning and the way that you're returning it matters," Roddick stated. "He's going to have a much more difficult time against Zverev's serve.”
The head-to-head gives Zverev another advantage, but Roddick's analysis suggests Shelton has reached this final with a more complete game than the one the German has beaten before. His backhand is holding up, his return game has improved and he has already survived Alcaraz and Tiafoe.
The question is whether those improvements are enough to finally change the matchup. Shelton has never beaten Zverev, but Sunday will give him the biggest opportunity yet to find out whether the version of his game that has emerged in New York can finally solve the German.
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.