Sabalenka, Anisimova and Osaka face huge ranking pressure who has the most to lose before the US Open?
WTAMonday, 03 August 2026 at 00:04
The North American hard-court swing could completely reshape the WTA rankings. With two WTA 1000 events and the US Open still to come, several of the world's biggest stars are about to put huge chunks of their ranking points on the line. For some, it's a chance to strengthen their position; for others, a failure to repeat last year's results could trigger a dramatic slide down the rankings.
The player with the most pressure on her shoulders is Aryna Sabalenka, the US Open champion one year ago, who is defending more than 2,000 ranking points during this part of the season. The world No. 1 could see her position at the top threatened in the coming weeks if she does not produce some important results, with Flushing Meadows being her main objective.
Among those defending the most points, Iga Swiatek — the defending champion in Cincinnati — and Amanda Anisimova also stand out, as both could see their place in the top-10 threatened in the coming weeks. They are among the players with the most at stake, risking losing positions and dropping outside the elite group.
Below, we review the WTA players who had the best campaigns in North America one year ago, but who therefore arrive with double pressure to defend a significant amount of points while risking a potential ranking decline if they fail to repeat those results.
Who is defending the most?
| Player | Points defending | Biggest tournament to defend | Biggest risk |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 2,215 | US Open champion | World No. 1 under threat |
| Iga Swiatek | 1,550 | Cincinnati champion | Could drop out of the top 10 |
| Amanda Anisimova | 1,545 | US Open finalist | Top-10 place at risk |
| Naomi Osaka | 1,490 | Canadian Open finalist | Could slip away from top-10 contention |
| Elena Rybakina | 1,215 | Three semi-finals | Opportunity to challenge for No. 1 |
| Victoria Mboko | 1,010 | Canadian Open champion | Injured and unable to defend title |
| Jessica Pegula | 910 | US Open semi-final | Chasing the No. 1 ranking |
Aryna Sabalenka: More than 2,200 points on the line
- Cincinnati Open: Quarterfinals (215)
- US Open: Champion (2,000)
No player has more to lose during the North American swing than Aryna Sabalenka. The world No. 1 is defending a staggering 2,215 ranking points, including her US Open title, making every match over the next month hugely significant.
Although she has maintained her dominance on Tour over the last year, she has not enjoyed the same success at the majors. In New York, she will have her final chance to avoid ending the year “Slam-less”, with players such as Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva getting closer and closer in the battle for the top spot in the rankings.
The Belarusian did not participate in the Canadian Open one year ago and only reached the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, meaning both tournaments represent an opportunity to gain points and arrive at the US Open with a greater margin for error. However, the four-time major champion will surely be more pressured by the desire to win titles than by the ranking points themselves. Sabalenka remains favourite to stay at No. 1, but no player enters the swing carrying more pressure.
Aryna Sabalenka with her 2025 US Open trophy
Iga Swiatek: Five-year top-10 streak under threat
- Canadian Open: Fourth round (120)
- Cincinnati Open: Champion (1,000)
- US Open: Quarterfinals (430)
Iga Swiatek begins one of the most important months of her career knowing a poor North American swing could finally end her remarkable five-year stay inside the world's top 10.
One year ago, Swiatek arrived in North America full of confidence after her Wimbledon title, and she quickly proved it by winning Cincinnati, her 11th WTA 1000 title. She also produced a deep run to the US Open quarterfinals, and although the defeat against Anisimova was particularly disappointing, the Pole still collected a strong amount of points that allowed her to remain inside the top-5 for the rest of the season.
This time, Swiatek arrives as world No. 8 and with a significant number of points to defend. The rise of names who have been protagonists this year — such as Muchova, Noskova, Svitolina, or Kostyuk — adds extra pressure. She could fall outside the top-10 if she fails to react during the North American swing. The Pole has remained inside the top-10 for more than five years and had never faced such pressure during a swing regarding a potential sharp ranking decline. Few elite players have as much at stake over the next month as Swiatek.
Iga Swiatek won her 11th WTA 1000 title at Cincinnati Open
Amanda Anisimova: Defending a US Open breakthrough
- Washington: Round of 16 (60)
- Canadian Open: Fourth round (120)
- Cincinnati Open: Third round (65)
- US Open: Finalist (1,300)
Amanda Anisimova arrives in North America defending more than a third of her ranking points after last year's run to the US Open final transformed her career. The American was another one of the names who enjoyed confidence during this part of the season back in 2025. Although her campaigns in Canada and Cincinnati were not particularly remarkable, her run to the US Open final erased doubts about whether Anisimova was ready to compete for the biggest titles, securing back-to-back finals at Wimbledon and the US Open.
Although 2026 has not been as productive as the previous year, Anisimova is starting to look at her ranking situation with concern. She currently sits at No. 10 and will have opportunities during the WTA 1000 events to compensate for points, but more than a third of her total points are at stake. Her ranking points will be on the line during the next month, with the risk of falling outside the top-15. The American has little room for error if she wants to remain among the elite. If she falls outside it could lead to tougher Grand Slam draws and her ranking mostly depends on New York.
Anisimova has to defend another Grand Slam final.
Naomi Osaka: Nearly half her ranking points at risk
- Washington: Round of 16 (60)
- Canadian Open: Finalist (650)
- US Open: Semifinals (780)
Naomi Osaka's return to the elite was built on an outstanding North American swing—and now she has to defend almost all of those gains. It has been one year since Osaka’s remarkable 2025 hardcourt swing, when she once again showed that she was ready to compete for the biggest titles. Her run to the Canadian Open final and US Open semifinals highlighted a summer in North America that once again established the Japanese player among the elite of tennis.
This time, the pressure is not as significant, although her level provides reasons for optimism. She recently reached the semifinals at the DC Open and is convinced that she can take another step forward during this North American swing. While the four-time major champion has remained close to the top-10 over the last year, much will depend on what she can do this month to determine whether Osaka can stay close to the elite group or whether she will lose ranking positions again, with almost half of her points at risk during these weeks. Recent form suggests Osaka is capable of defending those points—but the challenge is substantial.
Back in Canadian Open 2025, Osaka reached her first WTA 1000 final in over three years, though she ultimately lost to Victoria Mboko
Elena Rybakina: Huge opportunity—but plenty to defend
- Washington: Semifinals (195)
- Canadian Open: Semifinals (390)
- Cincinnati Open: Semifinals (390)
- US Open: Round of 16 (240)
Elena Rybakina's remarkable consistency last summer means she now has more than 1,200 points to defend across four tournaments. An irregular first part of 2025 for Rybakina began to turn around with her return to the hardcourts. Precisely, she was the player who collected the most wins in the months after Wimbledon and remained for months as perhaps the most consistent name on Tour. She posted a 13-4 record in North America and reached the semifinals at three consecutive tournaments.
At the US Open, she suffered a surprising defeat against Vondrousova in the fourth round, but she still accumulated a significant amount of points — which ended up giving her confidence during her run at the end of the season, qualifying dramatically for the WTA Finals just days before after another remarkable stretch of form during the post-US Open Asian swing. It will be a major test for Rybakina, who especially at the US Open could arrive with the opportunity to challenge for the top spot in the rankings.
Unlike others she is chasing World No.1 too. Three consecutive semi-finals though is hard to repeat. Although Rybakina may have more points to defend than most, but she also has one of the clearest opportunities to climb the rankings if she reproduces last year's form.
In the 2025 North American swing, Elena Rybakina reached semifinals at DC Open, Canadian Open and Cicnnati Open.
Victoria Mboko: Injury means a painful rankings slide
- Canadian Open: Champion (1,000)
- US Open: First round (10)
Victoria Mboko won't even have the chance to defend the biggest title of her career, with injury ruling her out of the North American swing. The surprise champion of the 2025 Canadian Open, she did not add any wins in the following weeks. However, a WTA 1000 title immediately places her among the players who collected the most points, even after her first-round defeat at the 2025 US Open.
Unfortunately, this time she is injured and will not be seen competing during the next month, meaning she will continue losing ranking positions after her recent exit from the top-10. When she returns, she can be expected to be around the top-20 once the North American swing concludes. Mboko's absence makes her ranking slide inevitable—but not necessarily long-term.
Albeit the prognosis is not terminal as her ranking will leave her placed for 2027 albeit in the short term it will be a painful slide without much in the way of solace.
Victoria Mboko proudly boasting the Canadian flag while holding trophy after winning the 2025 Canadian Open
Jessica Pegula: Can home advantage spark another US Open run?
- Canadian Open: Third round (65)
- Cincinnati Open: Third round (65)
- US Open: Semifinals (780)
Jessica Pegula enters her favourite part of the calendar with fewer points to defend than several of her biggest rivals—giving her a golden opportunity to climb the rankings. One of the players who stands out every North American swing, last year did not win any titles during this period. Ahead of the US Open, there were serious doubts about Pegula’s level, but she ultimately showed what she has accustomed us to with a strong performance to reach the semifinals at her home Slam.
The world No. 3 has several weeks to add a significant amount of points if she can improve her campaigns in Canada and Cincinnati, although the biggest pressure will come at the US Open. If the next few weeks are positive for Pegula, she could also enter the battle for the top spot in the rankings. For now, she started in the best possible way with a run to the DC Open final — where she will face Alex Eala in search of her third title of the season. Of all the leading contenders, Pegula may have the most to gain during the North American swing.
Key takeaways ahead of US Open
- Most points to defend: Aryna Sabalenka (2,215)
- Biggest top-10 danger: Iga Swiatek
- Most difficult result to repeat: Amanda Anisimova's US Open final
- Unluckiest player: Victoria Mboko (injured)
- Biggest opportunity to climb: Jessica Pegula
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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