ANALYSIS: Will Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev keep failing in majors after barren US Open asks questions

Failing is a very interesting phrasing because it means different things for different people. While making the second week of a major would be considered a pretty good result for the overwhelming majority of tennis players, for some it’s truly a failure.

Two of those for whom it’s a failure are Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. They are some of the best players we have in the world, and both of them have the highest ambitions. Daniil Medvedev was able to win one major so far in his career as he won the US Open in 2021 by beating Novak Djokovic in the final.

One year before that, Alexander Zverev stood in the US Open final, and despite winning the first two sets, Zverev still ended up losing the match in five sets against Dominic Thiem. The German has stood in a final after that, making the Roland Garros final this year. He would get beaten by Carlos Alcaraz in the final of that one in five sets.

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Daniil Medvedev also contested a Grand Slam final this year as he played in the Australian Open final, also losing in five sets though to Jannik Sinner. So, as you can see, there are a lot of connecting dots between these players and the inability to go all the way. Medvedev and Zverev are truly some of the best players in the world, but therein lies the problem.

They are able to be good, and ultimately they have the same problems so many tennis players have had before them. The most notable example of their problem was dealt with by Andy Murray, who was a ridiculously good tennis player but still quite often not as good as Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal. No matter how much he pushed and no matter how good he played, the Brit simply wasn’t good enough to beat these three regularly, which is why he won much less than he could have won.

When it comes to Medvedev, he at least has the solace of having won a major before. He stood in a couple more finals but failed in every one of them. Some of those were pretty close, such as the one against Rafael Nadal where he led in two sets and had a break in hand in the third one.

He also led against Jannik Sinner earlier this year but failed to close it out, so it’s not that his tennis is not good enough, it’s mostly that in those moments when the match is on the line, Medvedev isn’t able to really find something more. He’s not able to control his emotions as well as you’d like him to remain calm and simply close out the match.

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A similar problem is with Alexander Zverev. In both of the finals he contested, he was on the cusp of winning them, but when the match really went on the line, the German wasn’t able to really find what he needed to win it. Much like Medvedev, he doesn’t control his emotions that well in those moments either. He becomes a bit reserved, almost like scared, and he doesn’t really trust himself, which ultimately results in him losing the match. It’s nothing uncommon or anything that we haven’t seen before because it’s pretty common for athletes. Those are some of the most high-pressure moments they can face, so it’s only natural that they start doubting themselves.

The question as to when they will stop failing at the majors is a good one, but it’s not easily answered. Both of them aren’t the youngest anymore, and while they will improve as players in the coming years, they are mostly what they are by now. Daniil Medvedev won’t ever change the style he plays, and he largely doesn’t have to because he’s been able to win with it.

Zverev, interestingly enough, has started a shift in his style as he’s not as defensive anymore as he used to be in the past. He tends to fall back into his old habits, as he did against Fritz, but it doesn’t go well, so he’ll likely abandon that sometime in the future. He’s been stepping into the court more and more and being aggressive, which is certainly the right path to take.

Alexander Zverev missed a big chance in New York.

Ultimately though, it’s not about tennis. Both of them play tennis on a very high level and can be considered among the top 5 players in the world at any time of the day. It’s more mental, which is what both have struggled with. Zverev is a doubter and doubts himself in those moments, which leads to slow reactions and simply an inability to deal with that pressure.

Medvedev isn’t a doubter but actually the opposite. He might be a bit too confident because he’s just so trusting in what he does. He tends to play very loose and, at times, too confident, which is why he doesn’t even change it when things go badly. Once he started losing the Australian Open final earlier this year, Medvedev didn’t change. He kept going, but it didn’t work, so he ended up losing.

While Medvedev has won a major, his record since has led him to think what if.

With a bit of luck, both will win at least one Grand Slam in the coming years. It won’t all depend on them, but if they can both smooth out their mental stuff, they should be good enough to get it done. As we noted above, the tennis side of things is not a problem, but they need to work their way to becoming killers in the biggest moments of the match because until they do, they’ll keep failing at the majors.

What makes major champions major champions is the ability to handle the moment, and both of them have proven so far to not be the best at that. If they can change that and handle the moment, then they will finally win what they hope to win.