Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are starting to do the math regarding Jannik Sinner's suspension, and the three months off for the Italian could shake things up at the top of the ATP ranking. The world No. 1 has a 3,700-point lead over the German and 4,300 over the Spaniard.
Sinner is preparing to lose 1,600 points, and both Alcaraz and Zverev may have a chance to surpass him in the ranking in the coming months, though they will need near-perfect campaigns in their upcoming challenges on the calendar.
Alcaraz and Zverev eye world No. 1
The suspension started on February 9 and the 3-time Grand Slam champion will miss important tournaments, but none of the Grand Slams, as the penalty, imposed 11 months after the infraction, comes after the Australian Open he won in late January and will end before Roland Garros. Many view this as a tailored punishment, as it’s a period of time without major tournaments and without a significant defense of points for Sinner.
In the meantime, he will miss the ATP 500 in Doha, which is already underway in Qatar; the Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami, USA; the one in Monte Carlo, Monaco; and the one in Madrid.
The Italian already knows he will lose 1,600 points – notably 1,000 from not defending his trophy in Miami – leaving him with 10,230 points when he returns, which will likely be at the Masters 1000 in Rome, at home. This will happen before the French Open, where despite lacking some competitive matches, he will be one of the big favourites for the title that Alcaraz won in 2024.
Jannik Sinner will return to courts in May at Rome Open
Sinner’s closest challenger is 'Sascha' Zverev, who could also close the gap on the leader or even surpass him in the ATP list, so being the top seed in the French capital is still up in the air for Jannik. The Hamburg player only earned 950 points in the tournaments he played in this part of the season last year – his best result was reaching the semifinals in Miami before winning in Rome – so he is in a position to take the No. 1 spot.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz, who will lose the 100 points he earned at the ATP 250 in Buenos Aires from his semifinal run there 12 months ago (he skipped the South American tour this year), can add 500 points in Doha, where he will debut, and another 500 in Barcelona, where he didn’t play last year due to injury. Additionally, he defends the 1,000 points from his 2024 triumph in Indian Wells and 200 points in Miami and Madrid after making the quarterfinals in both tournaments.
In the hypothetical case of winning everything while Sinner serves his suspension, the Spaniard from Murcia would increase his points by 2,500, reaching 10,010, just 220 points behind Sinner. At the Rome Open, when Sinner returns, the 21-year-old Spaniard could claim the world No. 1 spot again, provided he maintains a perfect – or nearly perfect – campaign during Sinner’s suspension period.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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