Montreal draw analysed: Which ATP title favourites should be worried? Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz lead the way

For the first time in years, an ATP Masters 1000 event arrives without Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic. Their absence has blown the Canadian Open wide open, turning Alexander Zverev, Félix Auger-Aliassime, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev into leading title contenders, but none of them have escaped dangerous early tests in Montreal.

The 32 seeded players received first-round byes, meaning the highest-ranked names will begin their campaigns in the second round. The draw is designed to protect the top seeds from immediate clashes against other elite players, with the difficulty increasing from the third round onward as potential meetings between seeded players become possible.

However, even the biggest names in Montreal will need to navigate dangerous early tests. Players such as Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Félix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur enter the tournament as leading contenders, but the absence of the usual favorites also increases the pressure and opens the door for unexpected runs.

Shelton took advantage of a similar opportunity last year, when he captured his first Masters 1000 title in Montreal during a tournament missing several top names. This time, the draw could once again have a major influence on the outcome, with a wide-open Masters 1000 event expected to produce surprises from the opening rounds.

As the top seed and highest-ranked player left in the field, Alexander Zverev enters Montreal as the clear favourite. However, despite avoiding the biggest names, he has not escaped a potentially awkward early route that could test him well before the latter stages. His campaign will begin against either Lorenzo Sonego or Tallon Griekspoor, with the Dutchman representing a potentially tricky opponent after previously causing problems for the German.

However, considering Zverev’s current form, it would still be a favorable opening test for the world No. 3. A potential third-round matchup could come against Matteo Arnaldi (30th seed), a player who reached the Montreal semifinals two years ago but has struggled to find consistency. His ranking received a major boost after his French Open semifinal run this year, but he still needs to prove he can transfer that level to hard courts, where he holds a 0-4 record this season.

A potential fourth-round clash could become particularly dangerous, with one of Zverev’s biggest recent rivals potentially waiting: Francisco Cerundolo. The Argentine has defeated Zverev three times in their career, although all of those victories came on clay courts. Still, it would represent another demanding challenge for the top seed in a tournament where every round could carry extra importance. Cerundolo may not possess the same pedigree on hard courts, but having already beaten Zverev three times means he would arrive believing he can do it again.

Overall, Zverev still has the strongest chance of reaching the quarter-finals, but compared to some of the other leading contenders, his route is less comfortable than it initially appears.

No player may have more to gain this week than Félix Auger-Aliassime. Playing at home, seeded second and with several of the Tour's biggest names absent, the Canadian has a genuine opportunity to reach the closing stages of a Masters 1000 event.

His campaign will begin against Luca Van Assche or a qualifier, while a potential third-round matchup could come against Brandon Nakashima (28th seed). Nakashima's compact baseline game and consistency off both wings make him the type of opponent who rarely gives away free points, forcing Auger-Aliassime to dictate from the very beginning.

From the fourth round onward, things could become significantly more complicated, with a potential matchup against Frances Tiafoe or Arthur Rinderknech. Both players have shown their ability to compete at the biggest tournaments, but consistency remains the main question mark.

Auger-Aliassime has a relatively open section of the draw, starting as the favorite to reach the quarterfinals without facing a top-15 opponent. A potential quarterfinal opponent could be Flavio Cobolli, perhaps the most vulnerable player among the top eight seeds. The path will not be simple, but if the Canadian finds confidence early, he has a genuine opportunity to make a deep run. Compared with the other top seeds, Auger-Aliassime appears to have avoided the most dangerous projected quarter-final opponent. Of all the leading contenders, Auger-Aliassime arguably has the clearest path into the last eight.

Taylor Fritz appears to have received one of the cleaner opening draws in Montreal, although his route becomes significantly tougher once the tournament reaches the second week.

Fritz should enter as the clear favorite to advance, with a potential third-round matchup against Raphael Collignon. The Belgian has been gaining confidence in recent months with strong results and a significant rise in the rankings, although he still has much to prove at this level and on hard courts.

A potential fourth-round matchup could produce an all-American battle, with Learner Tien and Tommy Paul among the leading candidates from that section. Facing compatriots, Fritz will need to demonstrate why he has been the leader of his American generation over the last five years.

If he advances further, a possible quarterfinal clash against Zverev could await — one of the most repeated matchups on Tour in recent years between two consistent top-10 players. Fritz has dominated their head-to-head recently, including a streak of seven consecutive victories that was finally ended by Zverev in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Fritz should be pleased with his opening draw, but surviving the second week will require a noticeable step up in level.

Alex de Minaur's opening match looks relatively straightforward, but his projected route quickly develops into one of the deepest and most unpredictable in Montreal.

The Australian will begin against James Duckworth or a qualifier, a matchup that should not represent a major obstacle. In the third round, Ignacio Buse (29th seed) or Cameron Norrie could await as potential opponents.

If he survives the opening rounds, the round of 16 could present several dangerous possibilities. Valentin Vacherot (14th seed) and Arthur Fils (18th seed) appear as the most likely opponents, although names such as Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini are also in his section.

That stage could determine whether De Minaur can seriously challenge for a Masters 1000 title, but he will need to raise his level significantly if he wants to avoid another early disappointment at a major event. De Minaur should reach the fourth round, but few top seeds face as much variety in potential opponents before the quarter-finals.

Ben Shelton returns to the tournament where he won his first Masters 1000 title, but defending that crown will require navigating one of the most demanding early draws in Montreal. The defending champion will not have an easy path from the very beginning, with a potential opening-round clash against fellow American Jenson Brooksby. Although Brooksby has not returned to his best level yet, he has already shown the ability to challenge top players and would represent a dangerous first test.

If Shelton advances, Zizou Bergs could be waiting in the third round. The Belgian has also shown he can produce surprises against higher-ranked opponents and would create another tricky matchup for the American.

These are challenging early tests for Shelton, but overcoming them could provide an important confidence boost as he begins his title defense. However, a potential fourth-round matchup looks particularly demanding, with Casper Ruud (9th seed) and Joao Fonseca (22nd seed) in the same section and projected to meet in the third round.

Shelton’s path toward a possible quarterfinal appearance appears among the most complicated of all the leading contenders in Montreal. Shelton may have the toughest projected route of any player hoping to defend a title this week.

Daniil Medvedev's route through Montreal may be the most difficult of any of the tournament favourites, with dangerous opponents waiting in virtually every round. Medvedev does not arrive in Montreal with his highest confidence levels and received one of the more complicated draws among the favorites. His opening match will come against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard or Botic van de Zandschulp, two players who can make life extremely difficult with their serving power.

Medvedev is perhaps one of the best players on Tour at neutralizing big servers, but beginning his hard-court campaign with such a demanding challenge could prove costly, especially considering this will be his first hard-court tournament in several months.

If he survives the opener, another difficult test could come against Alejandro Tabilo (25th seed) or Hubert Hurkacz, one of the biggest dark horses in the draw. The early rounds already represent a major challenge for Medvedev.

Things do not get easier later, with a potential fourth-round clash against 2025 runner-up Karen Khachanov or 2025 Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik. Jack Draper is also positioned in the same section, making Medvedev’s quarter one of the most complicated in Montreal. Medvedev's experience means he cannot be discounted, but no leading contender faces a more unforgiving opening week.

On paper, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz appear to have received the most favourable routes into the second week, while Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev face the toughest opening challenges. Alexander Zverev remains the player to beat, but his projected path is far from straightforward, while Alex de Minaur's section may be the most unpredictable in the draw. With Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic absent, Montreal is unusually open, and the player who best negotiates these early tests could well emerge as the tournament champion.