Novak Djokovic looks set to avoid horror Alcaraz or Sinner Australian Open draw after ranking boost

After the conclusion of the ATP Finals, Novak Djokovic secured a year-end world No. 7 ranking and is almost guaranteed to enter the Australian Open as one of the top eight seeds. This seeding ensures he avoids facing players like Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner until at least the quarterfinals.

Although Djokovic qualified for the ATP Finals ranked No. 6, he withdrew just days before the tournament, clarifying the roster and allowing Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur to secure their spots in Turin. Both players suffered three losses each, leaving them behind Djokovic in the rankings.

Djokovic’s top-8 seeding shields him from early clashes

Despite starting the ATP Finals qith Djokovic in the No. 6, he will finish the year ranked No. 7 after Casper Ruud reached the semifinals in Turin, gaining 400 ranking points and overtaking him. However, Rublev and De Minaur’s performances ensure Djokovic remains in a strong position heading into the first Grand Slam of the season.

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De Minaur has a chance to add points during the United Cup in early January and could overtake Djokovic by one spot. However, Rublev, ranked No. 9, is defending his title in Hong Kong during the first week of the new season and would not break into the top eight even with a victory.

The significance of Djokovic’s seeding lies in avoiding higher-ranked opponents until the quarterfinals, keeping him clear of threats like Sinner and Alcaraz until a potential fifth-round clash. This favourable draw would allow Djokovic time to find his best form by competing against lower-ranked players in the opening rounds, particularly as he is unlikely to participate in warm-up tournaments before Melbourne.

In recent years, Djokovic has started his season at events like the ATP Cup or United Cup. In 2023, he chose to compete in Adelaide, where he claimed the title. For 2024, however, he has opted to head directly to Melbourne to focus on preparing for the Australian Open, his next key target.

Novak Djokovic at 2024 Australian Open.

“Deep inside, I feel that I still have more Grand Slams to win,” Djokovic said in a recent interview with the Argentine newspaper La Nación. “What keeps me competing, especially in Grand Slams, is the belief that I can win them. And also, for my country—I love playing Davis Cup for Serbia.

“When I need motivation, there are two things: first, believing I can continue fighting for and winning Grand Slams. And second, tennis is still my biggest platform to pursue other interests and share messages, whether they are about tennis, society, ventures, or building my legacy and brand,” he added.

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A favourable draw could see Djokovic avoid both Sinner and Alcaraz until a potential final. If the favourites progress to the quarterfinals, Sinner and Alcaraz might face each other in the semifinals, leaving Djokovic to face players like Taylor Fritz or Alexander Zverev—currently seen as more manageable opponents. Conversely, Djokovic could land in the same half as Sinner and Alcaraz, requiring him to face one in the quarters and the other in the semis.

“I still feel that I enjoy the process, and it brings many benefits to me, so why stop?” said the 24-time Grand Slam champion. “Some people think I should retire at the top, while others believe I should keep going as long as I feel I can contend for Grand Slams. I tend to agree with the latter.

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“Maybe I’ll change my mind—I don’t know. For now, I want to keep going. How much longer? Travelling and staying motivated are becoming harder for me, especially with kids. I don’t want to be away from home for too long, but I still have the drive," the 10-time Australian Open champion added.  “So, I’m sorry for those who want me to retire—they’ll have to put up with me for a while longer,” he concluded.