Battle for WTA World No.1 as Iga Swiatek goes to battle with Aryna Sabalenka

As we approach the conclusion of the 2024 season, the tennis world is eagerly awaiting the answer to one major question: which player will finish the year as the world number one? With only a short amount of time left, we are inching closer to discovering who will claim that coveted top spot. It's shaping up to be a tight battle, just like it was last year.

In 2023, it was Iga Swiatek who managed to secure the year-end number one ranking with an impressive late-season run. She put together an incredible streak that allowed her to finish the year on top, proving once again how dominant she can be.

For a large part of this season, it seemed like this discussion wouldn’t even be necessary. For months, it looked as though Iga Swiatek had the number one ranking firmly locked down. She's known for her incredible consistency, which was evident throughout the year, particularly during the clay season. Before we dive into the current battle, it's worth highlighting some of Swiatek's remarkable achievements this year. Right from the start, she set the tone by winning the Doha event, a prestigious WTA 1000 tournament. She then followed that up by triumphing at the Indian Wells Masters, cementing her place as one of the top players on tour. Her dominance on clay was even more impressive, as she went on to have a nearly flawless season on her favourite surface.

Swiatek’s run on clay saw her winning the Madrid and Rome tournaments back-to-back, showcasing her dominance. She then capped it all off with another title at Roland Garros, adding to her already impressive collection of Grand Slam trophies. By the time the French Open concluded, Swiatek had built a substantial lead in the rankings. It appeared unlikely that anyone could catch her, with her points total putting her in a commanding position. At that point, Aryna Sabalenka was her closest rival, but even though Sabalenka had won the Australian Open and reached the finals in both Madrid and Rome, the gap between the two seemed insurmountable.

However, as we’ve learned in tennis, things can change quickly. Despite the seemingly wide gap, Sabalenka has been inching closer to Swiatek, particularly after a fantastic performance during the US Open swing. Sabalenka captured the Cincinnati Open title and went on to win the US Open itself, significantly reducing the points difference between her and Swiatek. As of now, Swiatek has 10,885 points, while Sabalenka is sitting at 8,716 points. You might be wondering, "How can that still be considered close?"

The answer lies in the race for the world number one ranking. While the overall ranking points show a decent gap, the more crucial number is the points in the race to end the year as the world number one. In the race standings, Swiatek currently has 8,285 points, while Sabalenka is just behind with 7,876 points. That’s a much narrower margin and essentially turns this battle into a neck-and-neck race for the top spot as we move into the final weeks of the season. Every tournament both players compete in from now on will be critical, as each match could tip the scales in favour of one or the other, ultimately deciding who finishes the year as the world number one.

Swiatek’s advantage in the regular rankings comes from the points she accumulated from winning events last year, including a tournament in China and the WTA Finals. In fact, it was Swiatek’s victory at the WTA Finals last year that allowed her to reclaim the number one ranking, as she needed to win the tournament to finish ahead of Sabalenka. This year, we could see a very similar scenario unfolding. The WTA Finals, which offer a large number of ranking points, could once again play a decisive role in determining who finishes as the year-end number one.

However, the WTA Finals aren't the only major events remaining on the calendar. In the coming weeks, there are two WTA 1000 tournaments in China, which will offer a significant number of ranking points. Both Swiatek and Sabalenka are likely to compete in at least one of these tournaments, if not both. With the points difference between them being just around 400 points in the race, Sabalenka will have a real chance to close the gap even further. What makes this battle even more intriguing is the psychological aspect. Right now, the momentum seems to be on Sabalenka's side.

In recent weeks, Sabalenka has been playing with tremendous confidence. She managed to win the Cincinnati Masters, where she faced Swiatek and defeated her in a relatively straightforward fashion. Sabalenka then carried that confidence into the US Open, where she claimed the title, further boosting her self-belief. On the other hand, Swiatek has been struggling a bit lately. Her form hasn't been as sharp, and she hasn't looked as dominant as she did earlier in the season.

One major blow to Swiatek’s confidence came when she failed to win the gold medal at the Olympics. That loss seems to have had a lasting impact on her, as she hasn't looked quite the same since. The cold, methodical approach that Swiatek is known for when dismantling opponents has been missing. She hasn’t been playing with the same level of assurance, and that has been evident in her recent matches. This shift in form could be a significant factor in determining whether she can hold onto the number one spot or if Sabalenka will overtake her.

At the moment, it’s hard to have full confidence that Swiatek will be able to turn things around quickly enough to fend off Sabalenka in the final stretch of the season. Sabalenka, on the other hand, seems to be riding a wave of momentum, and it wouldn't be surprising if she manages to outplay Swiatek and gather enough points to take the lead in the race. Nonetheless, as mentioned earlier, the WTA Finals will likely be the decisive event. With such a large number of points on offer, whichever player performs better at that tournament will probably end the year as the world number one.