One win from history: Elena Rybakina can seal year-end top spot in Tokyo

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 04:30

Elena Rybakina posing with US Open trophy

Elena Rybakina needs just one more victory to secure the Year-End No. 1 ranking for the first time in her career, with the Kazakh able to clinch the honour at this week's WTA 500 tournament in Tokyo. After taking over the top spot following the US Open, she has strengthened her position by successfully defending her title in Ningbo, leaving Aryna Sabalenka with a significant gap to overcome.

The 27-year-old arrives in Japan on the back of another impressive week in China, where she defeated Leylah Fernandez 6-2, 6-2 in Sunday's final. The triumph marked Rybakina's fourth title of the 2026 season, the most of any player on the WTA Tour, and her 15th career trophy. It also represented her first title since becoming world No. 1 and the first successful title defence of her career.

Rybakina has now spent seven weeks at the top of the rankings, already surpassing former world No. 1s Evonne Goolagong and Garbiñe Muguruza, who held the position for two and four weeks, respectively. If she maintains her position through the end of the season, she will begin 2027 with 20 weeks at No. 1, moving ahead of several other major names in women's tennis history.

Her immediate target, however, is Tokyo, where she is the top seed and has a first-round bye. One more win would settle the year-end race regardless of Sabalenka's results, turning a season already defined by two Grand Slam titles into an even more significant milestone for the Kazakh.

Rybakina can clinch Year-End No. 1 ranking in Tokyo

Rybakina currently leads the WTA rankings with 9,501 points, while Sabalenka sits second with 7,550. The 1,951-point gap gives the Kazakh a substantial advantage heading into the final stretch of the season.

The top seed will begin her campaign in the round of 16 against either Maria Sakkari or qualifier Yulia Putintseva. A victory would mathematically secure Rybakina the Year-End No. 1 ranking, meaning Sabalenka could no longer catch her even if the Belarusian won her remaining matches of the season.

Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka holding trophies

The opportunity comes after Rybakina put together a remarkable campaign, winning the Australian Open and US Open alongside titles in Stuttgart and Ningbo. Her latest triumph was particularly significant: she swept through the Ningbo field for the loss of just one set and completed the first successful title defence of her career.

If she fails to secure the year-end honour in Tokyo, Rybakina will have another opportunity at the WTA Finals, where winning one match would guarantee that she finishes the season at the top of the rankings. The tournament is scheduled to begin in Indian Wells on November 8.

Rybakina closing in on historic ranking milestone

Rybakina's rise to the top has already allowed her to move past several former world No. 1s in terms of weeks spent at the summit. Her seven weeks in the position have taken her beyond Evoone Goolagong, who spent two weeks at No. 1, and Muguruza, who held the ranking for four weeks.

The next milestone is Karolina Pliskova, who spent eight weeks at the top. If Rybakina remains No. 1 through the end of 2026, she will start the new season with 20 weeks at the summit, putting her ahead of Venus Williams (11 weeks), Ana Ivanovic (12), and Jennifer Capriati (17).

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The immediate goal is to secure the year-end ranking, an achievement that would recognise Rybakina's consistency across the season rather than a single tournament run. With a lead of almost 2,000 points over Sabalenka and the chance to settle the race in Tokyo, she is firmly in control of her destiny.

One more victory would make Rybakina the Year-End No. 1 for the first time, adding another milestone to a season in which she has established

Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist

Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.

His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.

In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.

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