PREVIEW Cincinnati Open WTA Final: Iga Swiatek eyes first Cincinnati title, Jasmine Paolini seeks career defining upset

From a field of 96, the Cincinnati Open has whittled down to two players with very different stories. World number 3 Iga Swiatek has long been the standard-bearer of the women’s game, amassing Grand Slam titles and holding the top ranking with authority. Opposite her stands Jasmine Paolini, the Italian who has charmed fans with her fearless shot-making and gritty runs at the biggest tournaments the past few seasons, now aiming for what could be the defining triumph of her career.

One enters as the favourite chasing yet another milestone; the other as the underdog daring to rewrite expectations. On Sunday, they meet for the WTA title in Ohio, a clash of pedigree against persistence, of a former world number 1 accustomed to the sport’s brightest stages against a challenger experiencing her first taste of a final at this level. Swiatek arrives with the weight of expectation, seeking to finally conquer one of the few big trophies missing from her collection. At the same time, Paolini steps into the spotlight with nothing to lose and everything to gain, knowing a single inspired performance could transform her career.

Iga Swiatek’s 2025 season has been another chapter in her extraordinary rise. Already a four-time Grand Slam champion, she has added consistency across surfaces, an aspect critics once believed might elude her outside of clay. The Polish star entered Cincinnati as the top seed, and despite carrying the weight of expectation, she has once again shown why she is considered the player to beat on the WTA Tour.

The Wimbledon champion began her campaign with a sharp opening performance against Anastasia Potapova, winning 6-1, 6-4 in just over an hour to settle into the Ohio courts. She was set to face Marta Kostyuk in the next round, but advanced via walkover when the Ukrainian withdrew, giving the Pole an unexpected breather.

From there, the level rose. In the round of 16, Swiatek was pushed by Sorana Cîrstea in a scrappy contest before prevailing 6-4, 6-3 in an hour and 35 minutes. The quarterfinal brought another battle, this time against Anna Kalinskaya. Swiatek dug deep to turn the match around 6-4, 6-3, showing the resilience that has defined so many of her victories.

Her semifinal against Elena Rybakina was always expected to be the sternest test, and it delivered. In a bruising, topsy-turvy encounter that lasted one hour and 40 minutes, Swiatek edged the Kazakh 7-5, 6–3 to book her place in the final. It was another reminder of her ability to find solutions in high-pressure moments, and now a chance to add Cincinnati to her growing Masters collection, one of the few WTA 1000 titles still missing from her résumé.

Unlike some surprise stories of the season, Jasmine Paolini has quietly carved out a reputation as a formidable contender at the WTA 1000 level, with two prestigious titles already in her trophy cabinet. The Italian now has the chance to claim a third, a milestone that would cement her status among the elite.

Her Cincinnati campaign has been a showcase of grit and stamina. Paolini opened with a marathon victory over Maria Sakkari, edging the Greek 7-6 (2), 7-6 (5) in two hours and 15 minutes, setting the tone for a week of tightly contested battles. In the round of 32, she overcame Ashlyn Krueger 6-2, 6-1, before facing a tougher test in the round of 16 against Barbora Krejcikova. Yet in just over an hour, Paolini prevailed 6-1, 6-2, demonstrating her ability to impose her game on a top-level opponent.

The quarterfinal against Coco Gauff was another thriller. Paolini dropped the first set 2-6 but rallied to take the next two 6-4, 6-3 in a two-hour contest, showing the resilience that has marked her career. Her semifinal against Veronika Kudermetova was the longest match of her tournament so far, lasting two hours and 21 minutes. After exchanging sets, Paolini eventually triumphed 6-3, 6–7 (2), 6-2 in a tense second-set tiebreak, booking her place in the final.

Looking at the matchup, one enters as the favourite chasing yet another milestone; the other as a seasoned underdog seeking her third WTA 1000 title. On Sunday, Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini meet in Ohio with contrasting stories but equally high stakes.

Both have had quite a positive year so far with Iga boasting a 47-12 win-loss record and 80% winning rate for the year. On the other hand, Paolini has a 30-13 record for 2025  illustrating her consistency at the top level.

Swiatek has held the upper hand in all six of their previous encounters, including a straight-sets win over Paolini in the 2025 Bad Homburg semifinal (6-1, 6-3) and a French Open final victory in 2024 (6-2, 6-1). Despite the historical record, Paolini’s experience in high-stakes matches and her current form suggest she is capable of testing Swiatek’s resolve.

For Swiatek, a Cincinnati title would add another milestone to an already glittering résumé and further cement her dominance heading into the US Open. Iga Swiatek has navigated the draw with remarkable efficiency, not dropping a single set since the second round and displaying the clinical precision that has become her hallmark. It would also silence any lingering doubts about her ability to consistently win on North American hardcourts, historically seen as the toughest stretch for European players.

In contrast, Jasmine Paolini has been battle-tested throughout the tournament. Every round has demanded resilience, from three-set victories over Coco Gauff and Veronika Kudermetova to her hard-fought win against Maria Sakkari in the opening round. While this experience demonstrates her mental toughness and ability to grind out results under pressure, it also means she has played far more total match time than Swiatek, potentially leaving her physically taxed for Sunday.

Yet Paolini’s past success at the WTA 1000 level shows she thrives in long, high-stakes encounters. Her aggressive shot-making and ability to mix pace could challenge Swiatek if the Italian can maintain focus and energy deep into rallies. Ultimately, the clash may hinge on whether Paolini’s fight and tactical ingenuity can offset Swiatek’s fluidity and freshness, making the final as much a test of stamina as skill.