The battle for WTA No. 1: Sabalenka to defend her position as Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek join the Race

With the start of the Australian Open, several players face significant point defences in the WTA Ranking, reigniting the battle for world No. 1. Aryna Sabalenka must defend 2,000 points from her 2024 title win, putting her at a disadvantage compared to Iga Swiatek, who currently ranks above the Belarusian after deducting 2024 Australian Open points.

This means Sabalenka must achieve a better result than the Polish player to maintain her top position. Meanwhile, Coco Gauff could enter the fight, though her point gap with Sabalenka and Swiatek remains wide. Only winning the title, combined with early exits by her rivals, could give her a shot at finishing the tournament as world No. 1.

Swiatek seizes lead in live rankings before Australian Open

World No. 1 Sabalenka will not have an easy time staying on top, her big problem being Poland's Swiatek. Although she currently trails Swiatek by more than 1,500 points, the Pole is only defending 120 points for reaching the third round last year, while the Belarusian is defending a total of 2,000 points.

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After deducting 2024 Australian Open points, Swiatek temporarily leads the live rankings with 8,000 points, ahead of Sabalenka with 7,666 points. The three-time Grand Slam champion must reach at least the quarterfinals to maintain her lead, while hoping for an early Swiatek exit.

Scenarios for Sabalenka to Stay No. 1:

• Win the title

• Finish as runner-up, provided Swiatek does not win the title

• Reach the semifinals while Swiatek does not advance beyond the quarterfinals

• Reach the quarterfinals while Swiatek is eliminated in the first or second round

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Scenarios for Swiatek to Claim No. 1:

• Win the title

• Finish as runner-up, provided Sabalenka does not win the title

• Reach the semifinals while Sabalenka does not reach the final

• Reach the fourth round while Sabalenka does not make the semifinals

• Reach the third round while Sabalenka does not advance to the quarterfinals

Gauff’s Chances

Coco Gauff also faces a major point defence, having reached the semifinals in 2024. She stands to lose 800 points at the tournament’s conclusion, bringing her provisional total to 6,118 points, far from Swiatek's 8,000. A very specific combination of results would need to occur for Gauff to finish atop the rankings, but winning the title is essential.

Scenarios for Gauff to Achieve No. 1:

• Win the title, while Sabalenka does not reach the semifinals, and Swiatek does not advance beyond the third round

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WTA Points without Australian Open 2024

1. Iga Swiatek: 8,000

2. Aryna Sabalenka: 7,666

3. Coco Gauff: 6,118

Australian Open Points Distribution

• Champion: 2,000 points

• Finalist: 1,300 points

• Semifinalist: 800 points

• Quarterfinalist: 400 points

• Fourth Round: 200 points

• Third Round: 100 points

• Second Round: 50 points

• First Round: 10 points

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