WTA Race Update: Mirra Andreeva, Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina battle to the finish line

With the end of the Wuhan Open—the last WTA 1000 of the year—only the final competitions of the Asian swing remain, and several stars are beginning to close their 2025 season. The battle for the 8 spots in the WTA Finals already has 6 qualifiers, and only three players are fighting for the last two spots.

It's important to remember that the WTA Race measures exclusively the points earned in the calendar year, making a difference with the WTA Ranking which measures the last 52 weeks of competition. Thus, the Race will be key to determining the year-end rankings and the 8 qualifiers for the WTA Finals, where only the last two spots remain to be defined.

Of course, the four major champions of the season already have their spot secured in Riyadh. Aryna Sabalenka (10,000) – US Open champion – and Iga Swiatek (8,368) – Wimbledon champion – have been qualified for months, and they are joined by Americans Coco Gauff (6,574) – Roland Garros champion – and Madison Keys (4,449) – Australian Open champion.

So far, with 6 spots secured, four of them are Americans, something that only happened once, more than 20 years ago (although ultimately only one of them competed due to withdrawals). This time, if there are no injuries in between, Gauff and Keys will be joined by Amanda Anisimova (5,907) – champion of two WTA 1000 titles this year – and Jessica Pegula (5,183) – champion of three titles this season.

The great moment for the Americans was demonstrated in this Asian swing, where Anisimova won the China Open title and Gauff won in Wuhan – where she defeated her compatriot Pegula in the final.

The consistency of the top players has been constant this season, repeatedly seeing the same names in the final stages of the Grand Slams and WTA $\text{1000}$s. There have been no major surprises in the final part of the season, and the first 6 players in the ranking secured their spots with some anticipation and a good margin.

In fact, even with two weeks of competition left, only two spots for the WTA Finals remain to be defined, and only three players can still mathematically achieve it. Mirra Andreeva (4,320), Jasmine Paolini (4,131), and Elena Rybakina (3,913) are the ones who must still fight to secure their spots in Riyadh – all competing this week in the WTA 500 Ningbo Open – while Race No. 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova (3,158) seems out of the discussion as of months ago.

Currently, the 7th place is occupied by Mirra Andreeva, champion of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and Indian Wells, but whose results have declined recently. The 18-year-old Russian teenager was eliminated in the Round of 16 in Beijing and the first round in Wuhan, allowing her rivals Paolini and Rybakina to get closer. The young star seemed to have a secured spot, but in the final stretch, doubts arise if Rybakina and Paolini step on the gas, especially after good campaigns from both in Wuhan – with Rybakina in the quarterfinals and Paolini in the semifinals.

While Andreeva competes in her last tournament in Ningbo, Rybakina and Paolini will still have another week of competition at the Tokyo Open – with another 500 points up for grabs. This week, Rybakina would need the title to surpass Andreeva, and Paolini can surpass the Russian if she reaches the semifinals.

That is to say, if Andreeva does not manage to advance, her chances of attending the Finals could be ruled out, and that's without considering that Rybakina and Paolini will have a new opportunity next week in Tokyo.

The biggest responsibility will be on Rybakina, who must make up 200 points to edge out Paolini. With all this, in Ningbo and Tokyo, every victory will be important to consider who advances, and everything will be defined millimeter by millimeter for the last two spots in the WTA Finals.