ATP Race Update: Alcaraz and Sinner untouchable at the top as Bublik enters the Finals conversation

After the first week of the Asian swing concluded, the ATP Race was updated following the titles won by Alexander Bublik at the Hangzhou Open and Alejandro Tabilo at the Chengdu Open. Additionally, Italian Lorenzo Musetti earned important points despite losing in the final to Tabilo, which will be vital in his fight to qualify for the ATP Finals in Turin.

The ATP Race exclusively measures the points earned in the calendar year—that is, since the first week of 2025—unlike the ATP Ranking, which considers the last 52 weeks played. The Race is key to determining the eight players who will compete in the Finals at the end of the season and will determine the rankings with which each player will end 2025.

For the moment, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner remain firmly at the top, being the only players already qualified for Turin. The Spaniard has 10,540 points—highlighted by his seven titles of the season, two of them Grand Slams—giving him a comfortable lead over his rival Sinner, who remains at 7,950 points, with two major titles and several finals reached.

Third place is a momentary tie between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev (4,180 points). The 24-time Grand Slam champion has not yet returned to the courts following his participation in the US Open and is expected to return at the Shanghai Masters in a week. Meanwhile, "Sascha" will have an opportunity to surpass him, though he will need to advance to the quarterfinals in Beijing to start adding points.

There are eight spots distributed for the Finals, and with only two Masters 1000s and a couple of ATP 500s remaining, there won't be many options for major changes in the high zone. Although mathematically only Alcaraz and Sinner can be considered qualified, the good point totals of Zverev and Djokovic practically guarantee them spots in the Finals. In recent years, the last qualifier has always ended the season between 3,000 and 3,500 points, and both 'Nole' and Zverev have already surpassed 4,000 points and still have chances to continue adding points in the last tournaments of the year.

In 5th place is Ben Shelton (3,710)—who reported an injury in recent weeks and had to withdraw from the Davis Cup and Laver Cup. His return was expected at the Tokyo Open this week, but he ultimately extended his time off the court and opted to skip the tournament. Like Djokovic, everything indicates he will return next week, although it remains to be seen if he can sustain the level he has maintained throughout the season.

Taylor Fritz (3,465) closely follows him—and will be at the Japan Open starting this Thursday. The American won two titles this season and reached the semifinals at Wimbledon, the Miami Open, and Toronto. The 27-year-old is aiming for his third consecutive participation in the ATP Finals, a tournament where he reached the final in 2024, falling to Jannik Sinner. Gaining a few wins in the final part of the year should be enough to guarantee his spot in the Finals.

Lorenzo Musetti (3,235) and Alex De Minaur (3,145) currently complete the top-8. The Italian advanced one position after reaching the Chengdu Open final, despite unfortunately being unable to capitalize on the two match points he had against Tabilo. Both Musetti and De Minaur can breathe a sigh of relief in the fight for a Finals spot following the injury to Jack Draper (9th, 2,990 points), who was the main threat to take their place but has now announced he will miss the rest of the season.

The closest player who could surpass De Minaur is Felix Auger-Aliassime (10th, 2,705 points)—with a gap of over 400 points. In other words, the Canadian needs a convincing end to the year if he still hopes to fight for that spot.

The champions of the week achieved important progress, with Alexander Bublik reaching 12th place in the ATP Race. The Kazakh advanced three positions and is starting to eye the possibility of entering the top-10 towards the end of the season, with four titles achieved this season—only behind Carlos Alcaraz's seven. The 28-year-old can even be considered to have a chance to fight for a spot in the Finals, although he will have to maintain his near-perfect campaigns from the last few months. At the very least, the chance is latent for the talented Bublik.

The other champion of the week was Alejandro Tabilo in Chengdu, who lifted his third trophy in a notable final against Musetti. The Chilean had fallen sharply in the ranking after several injuries, but he took advantage of a week that started in the qualifying rounds and achieved seven consecutive victories. Tabilo was only No. 142 a week ago and is now established in the top-85 of the ATP Race—undoubtedly good news for the South American, who will be able to finish the season in the top 100 and confidently plan for a better 2026.