Can Alcaraz surpass Djokovic in the ATP Rankings before the US Open?

Novak Djokovic withdraws from the Cincinnati Open, opening a possibility for Carlos Alcaraz to surpass him in the ATP Rankings before the US Open. The two players faced off on Sunday in the Olympic Games final, with Djokovic finally capturing the elusive gold medal in his career.

After securing gold in Paris 2024, Nole decided to skip the Cincinnati Masters, where he was the defending champion, meaning he will lose 1,000 points in the Rankings. However, Alcaraz was the runner-up in 2023, so he needs to win the title to surpass Djokovic.

On Sunday, Alcaraz and Djokovic played an exciting final at Paris 2024 on the courts of Roland Garros. The 37-year-old Serb won 7-6, 7-6, securing the Olympic gold. Djokovic now leads the head-to-head with Alcaraz 4-3 (2-2 in finals).

After completing the Career Golden Slam, Djokovic announced that he would take a break from the courts. While both Alcaraz and Djokovic withdrew from the Canadian Open this week, the Spaniard will compete in Cincinnati starting Monday, while Djokovic announced his withdrawal from the tournament.

Last year, Alcaraz and Djokovic played one of the best matches of the season in the Cincinnati final, where Djokovic claimed the title in one of the best matches of the year, 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4). With the Serb's confirmed absence, he will lose 1,000 points before the US Open. This means Djokovic's points will drop to 7,460, with no opportunity to add new points before the fourth Grand Slam of the year.

On the other hand, the 21-year-old Spanish player will lose 600 points for last year’s final, leaving him with 7,350 points—just a 110-point difference from Nole. To surpass Djokovic before the US Open, Alcaraz must reach the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, which would return him to World No. 2, just behind Jannik Sinner.