Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, or Holger Rune in the semi-finals? Here's how each player could progress at the 2023 ATP Finals

The Green Group at the 2023 ATP Finals is getting interesting, as Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, and Holger Rune are all still in contention to advance to the semi-finals ahead of their last Group Stage clashes.

Home player Sinner is currently at the top of the group after defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets before overcoming a three-set battle with Djokovic. Meanwhile, the latter's three-set victory against Rune in the first round and the Dane's win against Tsitsipas after the Greek player retired from their match after three games puts them level at 1-1.

In the final round of the Group Stage, Sinner and Rune will face each other while Djokovic will take on first alternate Hubert Hurkacz who has stepped in to replace Tsitsipas. As he will only play one match, the Polish player will not be able to advance himself but may be able to change the course of who does make it through.

The most straightforward scenario will occur if Djokovic defeats Hurkacz and Sinner beats Rune, as this will see the Italian player win the group while the Serb will qualify in second place regardless of the score. Moreover, if Hurkacz defeats Djokovic but Sinner still beats Rune, this will result in the same outcome.

However, if Hurkacz ousts Djokovic and Rune defeats Sinner, then the World No. 1 will be eliminated, Rune will win the group, and Sinner will qualify in second place. Alternatively, if Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in straight sets and Rune beats Sinner in straight sets, then the Danish player will still win the group but Djokovic will qualify in second.

Things get more complicated if Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in straight sets but Rune defeats Sinner in three sets. In this scenario, the advancing players will be decided based on the percentage of games won by each of the three possible qualifiers.

Furthermore, there are two more scenarios in which defending champion Djokovic would not advance to the semi-finals. The first is if he downs Hurkacz in three sets and Rune defeats Sinner in straight sets, which would put Rune at the top of the group and Sinner in second.

This same outcome would occur if Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in three sets and Rune beats Sinner in three sets. Therefore, given that Djokovic will take to the court before Rune and Sinner's showdown, he will want to win in straight sets to give himself the best possible chance of making it through.