PREVIEW | ATP Madrid Open 2025 – Semi-Finals: Ruud and Draper eye final showdown but Musetti lurks

The semifinalists of the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid Open have been decided, with Jack Draper as the main favorite and three contenders for their first Masters 1000 title. This Thursday saw the departure of some prominent names in the quarterfinals, such as Jakub Mensik and Daniil Medvedev.

Cerundolo (No. 21) continues to display the best tennis of his career, reaching his second Masters 1000 semifinal after the 2022 Miami Open. The Argentine had already eliminated the first seed Alexander Zverev (world No. 2) and this time defeated the 2025 Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2. The South American has a 16-5 record on clay courts this season and seems to have enough arguments to reach his first final in the category after a couple of years of consistency within the top-25. He has already secured his best ranking as world No. 18 and is 8th in the ATP Race.

He will face the tricky Casper Ruud (No. 15), who is always motivated on clay courts and is in the semifinals of Madrid for the second time and the semifinals of a Masters 1000 for the ninth time. The Norwegian eliminated Russian Daniil Medvedev – former Monte-Carlo Masters champion – in his first victory against the Russian after 3 consecutive defeats.

Both know each other well, with 8 previous encounters and a 5-3 head-to-head record favoring the Argentine (2-2 on clay courts). The Argentine has won the last two meetings, but the Norwegian is a slight favorite due to more experience at this stage. In any case, Cerundolo has already achieved several significant wins this season, including four against top-10 players.

Probably the match of the night, between two players of the same generation who have become part of the most consistent performers in 2025. Musetti secured a convincing victory against lucky loser Gabriel Diallo 6-4, 6-3 and imposed his favoritism to reach the semifinals of a Masters 1000 again, just weeks after reaching the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters. The Italian also achieved 40 wins at the Masters 1000 level and guaranteed his first appearance in the top 10.

Musetti previously achieved victories against Stefanos Tsitsipas (17th) and Alex De Minaur (7th) and has 9 wins in his last 10 matches on clay courts, only losing in the Monte-Carlo final against Carlos Alcaraz.

Facing him will be Brit Jack Draper, who secured his first appearance in the top 5 after imposing his favoritism against Matteo Arnaldi. The 2025 Indian Wells champion has not dropped a set so far in the tournament and has shown his rapid adaptation to clay courts. Furthermore, he has a favorable head-to-head record against Musetti at 3-0, although all of those matches were on indoor courts. On clay courts, the Italian is probably the one who benefits more from the slow surface.