PREVIEW Davis Cup 2024 Semi-Final: Jannik Sinner's Italy faces Alex de Minaur's Australia as Netherlands final showdown awaits

The second semi-final of the Davis Cup 2024 will see Italy, the reigning champions, take on 28-time titleholders Australia. Both nations have rich histories in this prestigious tournament, and both are definitely in with a shout.

But only one can advance to face the Netherlands, who overcame Germany in the first semi-final, for the ultimate prize. The showdown takes place later today, so let's take a look at both sides' journey so far, and who could be the players that make the difference.

The road to the final

Italy enters this match as the defending champions, having claimed the Davis Cup title in 2023 with a 2-0 victory over their opponents today, Australia. Jannik Sinner, the star of that triumph, has had a stellar season, winning two Grand Slam titles and eight titles overall in 2024. However, his journey has not been without controversy, as he is currently embroiled in a doping investigation. Despite the off-court issues, Sinner's on-court form has been superb, and he was in top form at last week's ATP Finals, where he secured the trophy last Sunday.

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Sinner's singles match will be against Alex de Minaur. The Italian holds an undefeated record against the Australian, having won all their previous encounters, including a routine victory at the ATP Finals just last week. With Sinner in the form of his life, Italy starts as the favourites, but the team will need some of their other key players to pull their weight also.

Matteo Berrettini will also be key, and he faces Alexei Popyrin in the second singles match, which could determine the outcome of the tie. Berrettini holds a 2-1 advantage in their head-to-head record, but Popyrin is no stranger to upsets. Earlier this year, he stunned Novak Djokovic at the US Open, showing he’s definitely not someone to write off. If Popyrin manages to overcome Berrettini and force the doubles match into a decisive role, Australia's chances of advancing to the final will increase significantly.

Italy must not let it come down to the doubles match, and need Sinner and Berrettini to get the job done. If it does come down to the doubles match, Italy are likely to field Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini, a pairing that has already tasted success earlier this week. On the other side of the net, Australia will rely on their established duo of Matthew Ebden and Jordan Thompson. Ebden and Thompson are proven doubles specialists, with their strong chemistry and winning streak making them the favourites in this matchup. Should the tie come down to the doubles, Australia will be feeling pretty confident despite the presence of Sinner.

Jannik Sinner will be there to anchor Italy's hopes again in Malaga.

Italy's journey so far

Italy's journey to the semi-finals has been anything but straightforward. Earlier in the week, they faced Argentina in a dramatic encounter. After Lorenzo Musetti suffered a defeat to Francisco Cerundolo in the opening singles match, Jannik Sinner kept Italy's hopes alive with a commanding straight-sets win over Sebastian Baez.

With the tie level, Sinner joined forces with Matteo Berrettini for the deciding doubles match, and the Italian pair delivered under pressure, defeating Andres Molteni and Maximo Gonzalez 6-4, 7-5 to secure a place in the semi-finals. Italy now aims to become only the sixth nation to retain the Davis Cup since the introduction of the final stage format 52 years ago, and the first to do so since the Czech Republic back in 2013.

Australia's journey so far

Australia earned their spot in the semi-finals with a hard-fought victory over the United States. The Americans, despite having the Taylor Fritz in their ranks, faltered at crucial moments. Even though Fritz delivered by defeating Alex de Minaur in the singles, the rest of the team failed to follow suit.

The tie began with a dramatic singles match between Ben Shelton and Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Shelton had 11 match points but ultimately succumbed to an agonising defeat. Later, Shelton teamed up with Tommy Paul for the doubles against Matthew Ebden and Jordan Thompson. However, the decision to field two singles players instead of experienced doubles specialists like Austin Krajicek and Rajeev Ram backfired, as the Australian duo secured a straightforward 6-4, 6-4 victory. Australia will be very happy with some of the strange decisions by the US camp, but there’s no denying they will be a serious threat to the defending champions Italy.

Australia reached the final last year. Can they go one better in 2024?

What happened last year?

What makes today's semi-final even more exciting is the fact it’s a rematch of last year’s final, where Italy claimed their second title in history with a commanding win over Australia. The day began with Matteo Arnaldi defeating Alexei Popyrin in a closely contested three-set match, setting the stage for Jannik Sinner to deliver the final blow.

Sinner produced one of his most dominant performances, dismantling Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-0 to seal the victory. The Italian’s aggressive baseline play left de Minaur with no answers, as Sinner won 67% of his service points and hit 16 winners compared to just six unforced errors. The win ensured that the doubles match was not required, and Italy celebrated their first Davis Cup title since 1976.

Italy’s success was spearheaded by Jannik Sinner, who was supported by a strong squad featuring Lorenzo Sonego, Matteo Arnaldi, Luca Nardi, and Lorenzo Musetti. Their triumph showcased the depth and talent within Italian tennis, setting the stage for their journey to defend the title this year. But can the Italians live up to last year’s performance? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Key matchups

While Jannik Sinner’s dominance makes Italy the favourites on paper, the tie is far from a foregone conclusion. Alex de Minaur will need to elevate his game to give Australia a fighting chance, while Alexei Popyrin has the potential to turn the tide in his team’s favor if he can upset Matteo Berrettini.

The doubles match could prove decisive, with Australia’s seasoned duo of Ebden and Thompson holding a slight edge over their Italian counterparts. However, if Sinner and Berrettini can maintain their current form, they could negate that advantage.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, if the Italians let this go down to a doubles match, they could very well be in trouble.

For Italy, this is an opportunity to cement their status as the undisputed Davis Cup champions, by defending their title successfully. For Australia, it’s a chance to add to their record 28 titles and reclaim the glory they last experienced all the way back in 2003. With both teams boasting a mix of star power and depth, this semi-final promises to be a thrilling encounter that could go down to the wire.

But will it be Italy, or Australia, that take on the Netherlands for the Davis Cup trophy?