"That's why I think the fact that Novak beat him will play a role" - Australian Open semi-final defeat will give Djokovic huge boost against Sinner

At the start of the year, Novak Djokovic rolled back the years and defeated a stunned Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals of the Australian Open in a thrilling five-set battle in the heat and humid conditions in Melbourne. Former coach Patrick Mouratoglou reckons that the weather could have an implication on their upcoming semi-final clash at Wimbledon.

A year ago, the two competed in the last four at Wimbledon with Sinner producing a magical display in a statement win over the seven-time champion, marking a changing of the guard as Djokovic lost a fifth match on the bounce against the Italian while winning one set in the process.

It was not just the result, but the way Sinner was playing, dominant on court as Djokovic struggled to keep pace. The Australian Open went against the trend of Sinner dominance, something that Djokovic will want to prove was no fluke. As he searches for that elusive 25th Grand Slam title, he will need to defeat the world number one to give himself another chance of glory.

Sinner will be very much determined to retain his title. The four-time Grand Slam champion has not won a major title in 2026, and if he does not triumph at SW19 will not be the reigning victor in any of the major tournaments.

The overall opinion is that Sinner is the favourite to come out on top, and that is voiced by Mouratoglou. Serena Williams' former coach analysed the upcoming contest, sharing what he believed would be the main turning points in the match. "Jannik Sinner is the big favourite in this semifinal against Novak Djokovic," he said on Instagram. "But there are two elements that can change the match."

The Frenchman backed up his thoughts that Sinner was the one to beat going into the match but did state some important factors important to be noted ahead of proceedings. "First of all, the weather. Secondly, the semifinal he lost this year at the Australian Open against him. When you think of any given day, apart from [Carlos] Alcaraz, Sinner is always the favourite, and by far."

With no Alcaraz since mid-April due to a wrist injury, Sinner has been virtually unchallenged at the top of the sport, winning numerous Masters 1000 titles. However, Roland Garros was a huge anomaly. In the baking Paris heat, he struggled massively and despite serving out for a comfortable straight sets win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo.

He has come back from this well, finding his groove again on court at Wimbledon following a short break in action with Djokovic by far the hardest task he has had this tournament.

Mouratoglou had to mention the daunting recent head-to-head record between the two champions. "Now, if you look at the head-to-head record between Sinner and Djokovic since 2024, Sinner leads 5-1. The only exception was this year at the Australian Open."

Sinner may have enjoyed a period of dominance against the Serbian, but Mouratoglou focuses on that most recent defeat as a pivotal factor in Djokovic's mentality. "That's why I think the fact that Novak beat him will play a role. Will it be enough or not? I don't know. When he plays Novak in another Grand Slam semifinal like he did at the Australian Open this year, he will have to think about it."

Temperatures are set to reach the 30-degree mark in South London. With Sinner's struggles in the heat well-documented, as forementioned with that Roland Garros collapse. Other examples include the early rounds of the Australian Open where he severely struggled in the conditions, only prevailing after the extreme heat policy saw the roof closed and he recovered to go on and win.

While not as hot in London, the hot temperatures could still prove to be a tricky obstacle for Sinner. "It will be somewhere in his head," Mouratoglou continued. "It won't be an easy match. I think there will be a lot of rallies."

Unusually, the match will be played second following the first semi-final between Alexander Zverev and Arthur Fery. Sinner and Djokovic played a day before their fellow semi-finalists, meaning that, based on other competitions, they should be on first. Going back to the weather, the conditions will be slightly cooler and that will be a huge beneficiary.

"The weather conditions, if they play earlier in the day, and I think Jannik will push to play later while Novak will push to play earlier. We'll see who wins, but it will play a role, that's for sure. But the favourite is definitely Sinner, and by far," he concluded.