Jannik
Sinner will have his first major opportunity to dethrone Novak Djokovic as the
world No. 1 at the French Open. Here is our breakdown of what needs to happen
for the Italian to claim the top spot as the best tennis player in the world.
The 22-year-old, who won the latest Grand Slam in Australia,
has been the most in-form player of the year, and coupled with Djokovic's
inconsistent form, he could potentially usurp him. Djokovic defends the title
he won in 2023 by defeating Casper Ruud (7-6, 6-3, 7-5), while Sinner exited in
just the second round after a surprising defeat to Daniel Altmaier (7-6, 6-7,
6-1, 6-7, 5-7).
Sinner's chances
Djokovic is far from his best form,
following another defeat, this time in the semifinals of the Geneva Open
against Tomas Machac. The Serbian received a wildcard entry at the last minute
for the ATP 250 event and decided to play the week before Roland Garros.
The 24-time Grand Slam champion confirmed he would leave
Geneva with 9,960 points and will defend 2,000 points at the French Open,
projecting to have 7,960 points at the end of the second Grand Slam of the
year. Sinner has 8,770 points just before Roland Garros and defends only 45
points, projecting to have 8,735 points.
With a 775-point advantage in favor of Sinner, Djokovic
needs to reach at least the semifinals of the tournament to secure 800 points
and prevent Sinner from taking the No. 1 spot. However, Sinner would only need
to reach the second round to reach the top of the ranking.
In the event that Djokovic finishes the tournament as the
runner-up, he will exit with 9,260 points. This means that the Italian would
need to reach at least the semifinals of the tournament (9,535 points). If
Djokovic ends up as the tournament champion, Sinner could still become No. 1 if
he reaches the final of the tournament.
Sinner at 2024 Madrid Open.
Scenarios where Sinner reaches No. 1:
- If Djokovic fails to reach the semifinals, Sinner will emerge as the world No. 1.
- If Djokovic reaches the semifinals, Sinner needs to advance to the second round to become the world No. 1
- If Djokovic finishes as the runner-up, Sinner needs to reach the semifinals of the tournament to become the world No. 1.
- If Djokovic becomes the champion of the tournament, Sinner must be the runner-up of the tournament to become the world No. 1.
| Djokovic | Round | Sinner |
| 7,970 | Round 1 | 8,735 |
| 8,010 | Round 2 | 8,775 |
| 8,060 | Round 3 | 8,825 |
| 8,160 | Round 4 | 8,925 |
| 8,360 | Quarter-final | 9,125 |
| 8,760 | Semifinal | 9,525 |
| 9,260 | Final | 10,025 |
| 9,960 | Title | 10,725 |
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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