Understanding how Sinner can dethrone Djokovic to claim the world No. 1

Sunday, 26 May 2024 at 19:51
Jannik Sinner will have his first major opportunity to dethrone Novak Djokovic as the world No. 1 at the French Open. Here is our breakdown of what needs to happen for the Italian to claim the top spot as the best tennis player in the world.
The 22-year-old, who won the latest Grand Slam in Australia, has been the most in-form player of the year, and coupled with Djokovic's inconsistent form, he could potentially usurp him. Djokovic defends the title he won in 2023 by defeating Casper Ruud (7-6, 6-3, 7-5), while Sinner exited in just the second round after a surprising defeat to Daniel Altmaier (7-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-7, 5-7).

Sinner's chances

Djokovic is far from his best form, following another defeat, this time in the semifinals of the Geneva Open against Tomas Machac. The Serbian received a wildcard entry at the last minute for the ATP 250 event and decided to play the week before Roland Garros.
The 24-time Grand Slam champion confirmed he would leave Geneva with 9,960 points and will defend 2,000 points at the French Open, projecting to have 7,960 points at the end of the second Grand Slam of the year. Sinner has 8,770 points just before Roland Garros and defends only 45 points, projecting to have 8,735 points.
With a 775-point advantage in favor of Sinner, Djokovic needs to reach at least the semifinals of the tournament to secure 800 points and prevent Sinner from taking the No. 1 spot. However, Sinner would only need to reach the second round to reach the top of the ranking.
In the event that Djokovic finishes the tournament as the runner-up, he will exit with 9,260 points. This means that the Italian would need to reach at least the semifinals of the tournament (9,535 points). If Djokovic ends up as the tournament champion, Sinner could still become No. 1 if he reaches the final of the tournament.
Sinner at 2024 Madrid Open.

Scenarios where Sinner reaches No. 1:

  • If Djokovic fails to reach the semifinals, Sinner will emerge as the world No. 1.
  • If Djokovic reaches the semifinals, Sinner needs to advance to the second round to become the world No. 1
  • If Djokovic finishes as the runner-up, Sinner needs to reach the semifinals of the tournament to become the world No. 1.
  • If Djokovic becomes the champion of the tournament, Sinner must be the runner-up of the tournament to become the world No. 1.
7,970Round 18,735
8,010Round 28,775
8,060Round 38,825
8,160Round 48,925

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