After the Canadian Open final: What does Rybakina need to become the new World No. 1 in Cincinnati?
WTAFriday, 14 August 2026 at 19:30
Elena Rybakina closed the gap on Aryna Sabalenka in the race for the WTA No. 1 ranking after reaching the Canadian Open final, moving to just over 350 points behind the top spot. With the Cincinnati Open now underway, the Kazakh has another opportunity to become World No. 1 for the first time in her career.
The two-time Grand Slam champion has steadily reduced the deficit throughout the season, taking advantage of several early exits from Sabalenka during the European swing. Her Australian Open title earlier this year has also allowed her to remain firmly established as World No. 2 for much of the season.
Rybakina’s run in Toronto further strengthened her position in the rankings battle, although she ultimately fell short of the title after losing to Iga Swiatek in the final. The result leaves the Kazakh within striking distance of Sabalenka heading into another WTA 1000 event.
The North American hard-court swing therefore represents Rybakina’s best opportunity yet to reach the top of the rankings. Cincinnati offers another chance, but she will need a deep run while also keeping a close eye on Sabalenka, who enters the tournament under pressure to defend her ranking position.
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Rybakina closes the gap on Sabalenka after Canadian Open final
Rybakina had a significant opportunity in Canada, but she needed Sabalenka to suffer an early exit in Toronto. The Belarusian reached the fourth round before being eliminated by Ekaterina Alexandrova, which was enough to keep her at the top of the rankings for at least another week.
Rybakina still put together an excellent campaign in Toronto, defeating players such as Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff on her way to the final. She had the chance to cut the gap to just four points if she had won the title, but she was beaten in straight sets by an outstanding Iga Swiatek, making her path to No. 1 slightly more complicated.
As a result, Sabalenka remains at the top of the WTA rankings with 8,670 points, while Rybakina sits on 8,316. There are 1,000 points available in Cincinnati, although the number of points each player is defending is also crucial. Sabalenka is defending a quarterfinal result worth 215 points, while Rybakina is defending 325 points after reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati last year.
| Points after Canadian Open | Projected after Cincnnati Open | |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 8,670 | 8,465 |
| Elena Rybakina | 8,316 | 7,991 |
What does Rybakina need to become World No. 1?
As a result, before either player begins her campaign at the Cincinnati Open, the live rankings show Aryna Sabalenka leading Elena Rybakina by 474 points. That means the Kazakh will need at least a runner-up finish in Cincinnati to have a chance of overtaking Sabalenka for the No. 1 ranking.
Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan celebrates after defeating Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, during round of 16 National Bank Open
If Rybakina reaches the final, she would leave Cincinnati with 8,576 points, which would put her ahead of Sabalenka’s projected total. In that scenario, Rybakina would become the new World No. 1 as long as Sabalenka does not advance beyond the third round.
If Rybakina wins the title, she would climb to 8,926 points. In that case, the only way Sabalenka can remain World No. 1 is by reaching the final herself, which would give the Belarusian 9,105 points and keep her ahead in the rankings.
| Rybakina result | Rybakina points | What Sabalenka must do to stay No. 1 |
| Lose before the final | Maximum of 8,316 points | Sabalenka remains No. 1 regardless |
| Reach the final (runner-up) | 8,576 | Reach at least the Round of 16 (advance beyond the third round) |
| Win the Cincinnati title | 8,926 | Reach the final (9,105 points) |
In short, Rybakina must reach the final to have any chance of becoming World No. 1, and winning the title would put the pressure entirely on Sabalenka, who would then need a final appearance of her own to remain at the top of the WTA rankings.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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