ANALYSIS: Jessica Pegula could become World No.2 and lead challenger for Aryna Sabalenka after Roland Garros and here's why
WTA
While Jessica Pegula lost out to the World No.1, Aryna Sabalenka in the final of the Miami Open for yet another loss in a championship match to the Belarusian, it could yet be a different kind of fight very soon indeed.
Pegula and in fact multiple other players including for instance Karolina Muchova have in fact benefited from not playing at the middle part of last season. The American lost time due to injury from Billie Jean King Cup onwards so next week in the season.
She didn't play Roland Garros and then doesn't have much in the way to defend until at least the US Open with only a final win in Berlin over Anna Kalinskaya being the main cause of concern at that juncture. She then has 3,000 points which could drop off from Canada, Cincinnati and the US Open but those are for the rest of the year.
Those tournaments also concern many of the top names who in turn could drop. Pegula defends the least out of the top ten going into the clay court season with only 195 points, most of which get defended this week.
She reached the semi-final of the Charleston Open and so if she goes onto win it wouldn't defend anything until Berlin in June. She would provisionally be sat World Number Two if all of the other players points dropped off and wouldn't be defended.
But bigger picture is that she is likely if Swiatek doesn't dominate this year to find her way into that position anyway. Coco Gauff would be World Number Three still by some distance and wouldn't lose any spots. Zheng Qinwen would surge four spots with only Palermo being the main aspect of her ranking to defend.
It is in fact Mirra Andreeva who reached the semi-finals at Roland Garros, as well as Madison Keys with over 1,200 points and Jasmine Paolini with 1,538 points still with a Wimbledon final to come off too that are the main issue aside from Swiatek.
Karolina Muchova like Pegula was out injured last season so could be a big winner with one or two runs.
While the post on Reddit which explained the top 10 said this, it would also directly benefit the likes of like alluded to Muchova who could find herself easily back in the top 10 if some of the top names fall. She is currently sitting pretty in 13th and doesn't have any points to defend.
Emma Navarro and Daria Kasatkina will, the latter more so on grass than clay. Elena Rybakina will also fall anyway as she won't defend a WTA 500 title in Stuttgart in the coming weeks. She has decided to play Billie Jean King Cup instead which helps her next year but not this year. She is already on the verge of falling out of the top 10.
Navarro, Kasatkina and Diana Shnaider all play Charleston this week too so it could be even further of a ranking drop. Danielle Collins too has a lot to defend further down and is set to drop 11 spots and is currently in 22nd as of right now but likely drops down even more if she doesn't defend Charleston.
Back to Swiatek who has 4,195 points to defend during the clay court season which is the price of domination. She hasn't been great for most of the season but in reality won Rome, Madrid and Roland Garros last year.
She is boosted by not defending Stuttgart money but it is a huge chunk of her ranking so she needs another incredible clay court year and given her indifferent form, it could be all or nothing.
Pegula as a result sits in the unique position of watching the dominos fall into place and given her lack of points to defend could be World No.2 before long. Albeit her defending these points is a different matter given her hard court points but that will be a bridge to cross when it comes down to it.
Overall a big few weeks await for most of the top ten with only a few Pegula included able to rest on their laurels so to speak.
Samuel GillEditor-in-Chief
Samuel Gill is the Chief Content Officer (CCO) of TennisUpToDate.com, a role he has held since 2020. He is responsible for editorial governance across the platform, including setting content standards, overseeing accuracy and consistency, and guiding long-term editorial strategy. Since joining, he has contributed more than 10,000 articles and editorial pieces across the TennisUpToDate network, playing a central role in the daily operation and development of the site.
Based in Leicester, Samuel has a broad background in tennis media. In his current role, he works closely with editors and writers to ensure coverage meets clear journalistic standards, with particular attention to verification, consistency, and timely updates when new information becomes available.
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