ANALYSIS: Will this be Aryna Sabalenka's Miami Open after harsh heartbreak at Indian Wells?

With Jessica Pegula’s victory over Emma Raducanu in the final match on Wednesday, the semifinal line-up at the Miami Open 2025 is now complete. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on Italy’s Jasmine Paolini, while Pegula faces off against the surprise of the tournament, 18-year-old Alexandra Eala. The question now lingers—can Sabalenka finally capture another title?

As the tournament enters its decisive stages, just four players remain after a week of thrilling action in South Florida. Sabalenka has looked dominant, yet faces stern competition from a resurgent Paolini and Pegula. Eala, meanwhile, has been the revelation of the event, stunning World No. 2 Iga Swiatek en route to her first-ever WTA 1000 semifinal.

Can Sabalenka Finally Lift the Trophy in Miami?

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has shown flashes of her top form throughout 2025 but has yet to add another title to her name since her season-opening triumph in Brisbane. While her performances have been commanding on paper, the Belarusian has repeatedly faltered in the final hurdles—something she’ll be determined to fix in Miami.

Her early season saw a dominant run in Australia, breezing through the draw until the final, where she was stunned by Madison Keys in a dramatic three-set battle. Despite owning a 4–1 head-to-head record against the American, Sabalenka was caught off guard in the opening set, recovered in the second, but ultimately fell short in a tense third.

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Indian Wells Heartbreak

The trend continued at Indian Wells. After steamrolling Keys 6–0, 6–1 in the semifinals, Sabalenka appeared unstoppable heading into the final against teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva. The 17-year-old Russian, fresh off her first WTA title in Dubai and a statement win over Swiatek, was the underdog on paper. Sabalenka had beaten her twice already this season without dropping a set.

However, after taking the opening set, Sabalenka’s level dipped. Andreeva broke twice in the final set and capitalized on a shaky serving display from the world No. 1 to clinch the biggest win of her young career.

Sabalenka later reflected on the loss, saying: "Honestly, it was me against me. I made a lot of unforced errors on key points and let her play better. I started well, then made a couple of mistakes and she began believing in herself. After that, I couldn’t find my rhythm again."

Serving Woes and Missed Opportunities

In both her defeats—against Keys and Andreeva—Sabalenka’s serve has been the key factor. Against Keys, she managed just 3 aces and 5 double faults, while the American served 6 aces without a single double fault. At Indian Wells, the numbers were even more concerning: just 1 ace and 1 double fault for Sabalenka, compared to Andreeva’s 6 aces and 1 double fault. Her first-serve win percentage dropped close to 60% in both finals, nearly 10% below her tournament averages.

That trend needs to change if Sabalenka is to get over the line in Miami.

Aryna Sabalenka faltered at Indian Wells against Mirra Andreeva.

A Familiar Foe in the Semifinals

Next up for Sabalenka is Jasmine Paolini, the Italian World No. 6. The two have faced each other four times in official competition, with Sabalenka holding a narrow 3–2 edge. She’s won their last two encounters, while Paolini’s last victory came at Indian Wells in 2022.

On paper, Sabalenka is the clear favorite. She’s yet to drop a set this week and is striking the ball with authority from both wings. Her forehand continues to do damage, and her improved use of the drop shot is adding a new layer to her game. The question remains whether she can maintain that composure and intensity in the biggest moments.

A Golden Opportunity

Should Sabalenka advance to the final, she will meet either Jessica Pegula or Alexandra Eala. Pegula has been solid, but Eala’s fearless run—marked by her upset of Swiatek—makes her a dangerous opponent. For Sabalenka, this Miami campaign represents more than just another shot at silverware; it’s a chance to regain momentum, widen the gap over Swiatek in the rankings, and carry confidence into the upcoming clay swing—a surface that historically hasn’t favored her style of play.

If she can hold her nerve and clean up her serving under pressure, the Sunshine Double could mark the true turning point of Sabalenka’s 2025 season.

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