Chwalinska vs Kartal and the most unexpected WTA 1000 finals of the last decade

On Sunday, Maja Chwalińska and Sonay Kartal play the Wuhan final for the biggest title of their careers. Neither had reached a WTA 1000 final before this week, and neither was expected to be here when the draw came out.

The paths that brought them there could hardly be more different. Kartal arrived in Wuhan ranked No. 170 after six months out with a back injury, which makes her the lowest-ranked WTA 1000 finalist since the format began in 2009.

Chwalinska arrived as the 16th seed, ten weeks removed from the biggest result of her career, the Roland Garros final in June. After that run she lost her next two matches, at Wimbledon and Toronto, and did not win again until mid-August.

Both stories are surprising on their own, and together they put the match in a short list of the strangest WTA 1000 finals of the decade. The table below sets Wuhan beside nine other finals since 2018 in which the ranking, the seeding or the path of at least one finalist was clearly unlikely.

Three finals in the last three seasons show how far the rankings can lag behind the level of a hot week. Amanda Anisimova reached the Montreal final in 2024 ranked No. 132 on a protected ranking, the lowest-ranked finalist at the event since 1984, and lost to Jessica Pegula 6-3, 2-6, 6-1.

A year later, Victoria Mboko went further as an 18-year-old wild card ranked No. 85: she beat top seed Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-4 and ninth seed Elena Rybakina 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4), and then Naomi Osaka, ranked No. 49, in the final, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1. Both players in that final were unseeded, and it was Mboko's first tour-level final.

Kartal's run is a step beyond both. She entered Wuhan ranked No. 170 after six months out with a back injury that cost her a drop from No. 54, competing on a protected ranking. She beat world No. 48 Anhelina Kalinina, ninth seed Belinda Bencic, 15th seed Jasmine Paolini and world No. 6 Elina Svitolina 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 in the quarterfinals.

In the semifinals she beat Jelena Ostapenko 7-6(9), 7-6(5), saving all six set points she faced, including three in the first set and a 1-4 deficit in the second. Kartal is the lowest-ranked WTA 1000 finalist since the format began in 2009.

At the 2023 Italian Open in Rome, Elena Rybakina navigated one of the toughest paths to a WTA 1000 final of her career. She defeated Jasmine Paolini, Anna Kalinskaya, Markéta Vondroušová and Jelena Ostapenko before reaching the semi-finals against an almost unstoppable Iga Swiatek, who retired with an injury during their quarter-final match.

Waiting in the final was another unexpected opponent in Anhelina Kalinina, who had no previous titles and no deep runs at WTA 1000 tournaments or Grand Slams. The Ukrainian was suddenly competing for the biggest trophy of her career against Rybakina, the reigning Wimbledon champion. Rybakina eventually claimed the title after Kalinina retired with an injury in the second set. Since then, Kalinina has not reached the same heights at a major tournament, and at 29, she is still searching for her first WTA title.

Rybakina faced another surprise opponent less than a year later at the 2024 Miami Open. Danielle Collins had lost the opening set of her first-round match against Bernarda Pera, but that defeat in the set proved to be the last time she dropped one before the final. The American embarked on an extraordinary run, sweeping aside every opponent in her path and never conceding more than five games in any of her remaining matches before the championship clash.

Rybakina entered the final as the favourite, but she could not withstand Collins' momentum. The American secured a 7-5, 6-3 victory to claim the first WTA 1000 title of her career and the biggest trophy she had won to that point. It became a defining moment in a special season for Collins, who had already announced that 2024 would be her final year as a professional. The Miami triumph helped propel her back into the world's top 10 and gave her farewell campaign an unexpected new dimension.

Now retired, Camila Giorgi had a long career but relatively few major achievements. The Italian had always stood out for her aggressive style of play and entered the 2021 Canadian Open with two titles from eight finals. However, her career-high ranking was No. 26, and she spent much of her time outside the top 50. Although she occasionally produced impressive results, consistency remained a challenge throughout her time on the WTA Tour.

In Montreal, Giorgi stunned the tennis world with an outstanding run. She defeated Elise Mertens, Nadia Podoroska, Petra Kvitova and Coco Gauff in straight sets before overcoming Jessica Pegula in three sets in the semi-finals. Her final opponent was Karolína Plíšková, the fourth seed and former world No. 1, but Giorgi's aggressive game proved decisive once again. The conditions in Montreal, the wind throughout the tournament and Giorgi's confidence all worked in her favour as she claimed the third title of her career, her first in three years, despite entering the tournament ranked only No. 71.

Some of the most memorable WTA 1000 champions have lifted the trophy despite starting the tournament well outside the group of favourites. Naomi Osaka was ranked No. 44 and unseeded when she won Indian Wells in 2018, defeating Simona Halep and Karolína Plíšková before beating Daria Kasatkina 6-3, 6-2 in the final. The triumph marked a major step forward for Osaka, who would go on to become one of the leading players of her generation.

A year later, Bianca Andreescu went even further, winning the same tournament as an 18-year-old wild card ranked No. 60, having started the season at No. 152. She defeated several established players, including Dominika Cibulková, Garbiñe Muguruza and Elina Svitolina, on her way to the final, where she completed her breakthrough by beating Angelique Kerber in three sets. It was the beginning of a remarkable season in which Andreescu also won the Canadian Open and the US Open, but her first major breakthrough came at Indian Wells.

When Belinda Bencic reached the final in Dubai in 2019, she already had a WTA 1000 title to her name, having won in Montreal four years earlier. She had also reached the US Open quarter-finals as a teenager in 2014. However, injuries and inconsistency had since made it difficult for the Swiss player to establish herself among the Tour's leading contenders.

Ranked just No. 45 at the time, Bencic used her Dubai run to demonstrate that she was ready to challenge the best again. Aryna Sabalenka, Halep, Svitolina and Kvitova were among the high-profile opponents Bencic defeated on her way to the title. The tournament became a defining moment in a standout season, which remains the only one in which she finished inside the world's top 10 and recorded 50 match wins.

The contrast is what makes the final unusual. Kartal is the lowest-ranked WTA 1000 finalist since 2009, but she has a title and a recent high level: a career high of No. 44 in July 2025 and a 12-0 record in 2026 WTA-level main draws when she wins the first set. Her ranking reflects the injury, not her level. A title would take her to a projected No. 36.

Chwalińska's run is the harder one to explain. She came through Roland Garros as a qualifier ranked No. 114, won nine straight matches including qualifying, and reached the final as the second qualifier in the Open Era to do so at a major. Then the results disappeared.

She lost her first-round match at Wimbledon in three sets after hurting her ankle on match point, withdrew from Hamburg, and lost to Talia Gibson 7-5, 6-1 in the first round in Toronto. Her first win after Roland Garros came in Cincinnati, 6-2, 6-2 over Cristina Bucsa, around ten weeks later. She then reached the semifinals of the Singapore WTA 500 before arriving in Wuhan. Her path here includes victories against Iva Jovic, Maria Sakkari and Iga Swiatek.

Most of the finals above rely on one unexpected player. Wuhan has two. Chwalińska is a Grand Slam finalist who had lost her way, and Kartal is a former top-50 player at No. 170. Neither would have been predicted in a draw that included Sabalenka, Swiatek and Svitolina. Sabalenka lost to Ann Li in this tournament, Svitolina lost to Kartal, and Swiatek lost to Chwalińska.

The result will say something about both players. For Kartal, a title would make her the lowest-ranked WTA 1000 champion in the figures cited here, ahead of Kim Clijsters, who won Indian Wells in 2005 ranked No. 133. For Chwalińska, it would be her first WTA title, and it would turn a 2026 that started outside the top 100 into one with a Grand Slam final and a WTA 1000 title. Whatever happens on Sunday, the final already has a place among the strangest of the decade.