Elena Rybakina closing in on the top: How the World No. 1 battle stands after the first week of the US Open
WTA
Elena Rybakina entered the US Open on the brink of reaching the top of the WTA rankings, something she has been close to achieving for several weeks. However, the US Open is the key event where she could finally complete the climb to World No. 1 — or see her chances begin to fade if things do not go her way in New York.
With relatively few points to defend at the tournament, the Kazakh arrived with an almost unique opportunity to take control of the rankings. Aryna Sabalenka, the current World No. 1, has a 92-week reign to protect and needs to defend her title to remain at the top of the rankings.
However, the chances of Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are also still intact. Both surpassed the pressure of the opening week of competition and advanced with convincing performances. The top four seeds at the tournament have so far shown no signs of weakness, with all of them still in contention for the No. 1 ranking.
The eyes remain on Rybakina, who depends only on herself to complete her move to the top of the rankings. She is two wins away from securing the No. 1 spot, although both could be particularly difficult challenges. She will face former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the fourth round, while a victory would set up a potential quarterfinal against either Iga Swiatek or Qinwen Zheng.
The World No. 1 race enters a crucial stage
Although Rybakina has the clearest path to the top, the battle is far from decided. Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff have all advanced through the draw with strong performances, meaning the situation could still change quickly depending on what happens in the second week.
At the moment, Sabalenka has reached the quarterfinals after defeating Taylor Townsend, while Gauff and Pegula remain in the fourth round waiting for their next matches.
The current ranking situation shows the advantage Rybakina has built:
| Player | Entering US Open | Live Ranking Points | Maximum |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 6,575 | 7,005 | 8,575 |
| Elena Rybakina | 7,901 | 8,141 | 9,901 |
| Jessica Pegula | 6,495 | 6,725 | 8,485 |
| Coco Gauff | 6,464 | 6,704 | 8,464 |
Rybakina currently has 8,141 points, putting her more than 1,100 points ahead of Sabalenka. That means the other three contenders have a very narrow path to the top.
A victory by Osaka in the fourth round could significantly alter the picture. It would give Sabalenka, Gauff or Pegula the chance to claim the World No. 1 ranking — although all three can only have that possibility if they go on to lift the trophy.
Rybakina's current total makes it impossible for any of them to overtake her without winning the US Open. Even the maximum totals of Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff remain below Rybakina's potential 9,901 points.
Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan celebrates after defeating Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, during round of 16 National Bank Open
Rybakina controls her own destiny
Rybakina's challenges, however, are particularly difficult and could change the panorama very quickly. The two-time Grand Slam champion has reached the fourth round without dropping a set, but she will face a seeded and high-profile opponent for the first time in the tournament when she takes on Osaka.
The Japanese is the No. 13 seed and a two-time US Open champion, while the head-to-head record is 1-0 in Rybakina's favor, after her victory at Canadian Open just few weeks ago.
If Rybakina reaches the quarterfinals, she will face either Swiatek or Zheng in a major test. The semifinals are the key stage for the Kazakh, as reaching the last four would put her in a position where she can secure the top ranking regardless of what happens to the other contenders.
The projected points at each stage illustrate how the race could develop:
| Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | Jessica Pegula | Coco Gauff | |
| Round of 16 | 6,815 | 8,141 | 6,725 | 6,706 |
| Quarterfinals | 7,005 | 8,331 | 6,915 | 6,896 |
| Semifinals | 7,355 | 8,681 | 7,265 | 7,244 |
| Runner-up | 7,875 | 9,201 | 7,785 | 7,764 |
| Final | 8,575 | 9,901 | 8,485 | 8,486 |
If Rybakina reaches the quarterfinals, she will move to 8,331 points and remain firmly in control of the situation. A semifinal appearance would take her to 8,681, meaning none of the other three players could overtake her without winning the tournament.
If she fails to get past that stage, however, Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff could maintain hope of taking the top ranking all the way until the final day of the tournament, when the new US Open champion is crowned.
For the moment, Rybakina's biggest challenge is not only the ranking pressure but also breaking new ground in New York.
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She has never advanced beyond the fourth round at the US Open, with that stage representing her best result in 2025, when she lost to Marketa Vondrousova in the Round of 16. Sabalenka and Gauff, on the other hand, have already lifted the US Open trophy, while Pegula has also reached the final.
That history means the ranking battle has an additional layer of intrigue. Rybakina has the advantage and controls her own destiny, but she must go further than ever before at Flushing Meadows to turn that advantage into the World No. 1 ranking.
For Sabalenka, Gauff and Pegula, the equation is much simpler: they need to win the title and hope Rybakina does not go far enough to stop them.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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