US Open No. 1 battle explained: How Sabalenka, Rybakina, Gauff and Pegula can reach the top

With just a few days to go before the US Open begins, not only is another Grand Slam title at stake, but so is the battle for the world No. 1 ranking in what could be a fascinating end to the season. Aryna Sabalenka has been under threat from Elena Rybakina for several weeks, although Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff have now entered the discussion as well.

The top of the ranking has remained unchanged for the last 92 weeks under Sabalenka's dominance, with the Belarusian already reaching 100 weeks as world No. 1 in her career. She arrives in New York as the defending champion, but with 2,000 points to defend, meaning she could drop several places in the WTA Rankings if she fails to win the title for a third consecutive year.

Rybakina currently has the strongest opportunity to take over. The world No. 2 has steadily closed the gap on Sabalenka since winning the Australian Open at the start of the year, while her strong finish to 2025 also means she has accumulated enough points over the last 52 weeks to give herself the first real chance of reaching the top of the rankings.

However, new contenders have emerged during the North American hard-court swing. Following Coco Gauff's title run at the Cincinnati Open against fellow American Jessica Pegula, both Americans will also have a chance to leave New York as the new world No. 1 — something that will not be easy, but is mathematically within their reach.

It is worth remembering that the WTA Rankings are based on points accumulated over the previous 52 weeks of competition. So far, Rybakina has managed to cut Sabalenka's lead to just over 400 points. She had a chance to take the No. 1 ranking in Cincinnati, but a quarterfinal injury ended that possibility just a couple of wins short of reaching the top for the first time.

Further back are Pegula, around 1,300 points behind Sabalenka, and Gauff, around 1,900 points behind the world No. 1. However, the picture will change heading into the US Open, where each player has a different number of points to defend. Their guaranteed points upon entering the tournament will look as follows:

From there, the number of points each player earns will depend on how far she advances. The champion will collect 2,000 points, meaning that whoever among the four wins the title will become the new world No. 1, regardless of the results of the other three.

Beyond that, we could see changes within the top four depending on who advances furthest in the tournament, although Rybakina remains the player with the strongest position given her sizeable points advantage.

While Rybakina has not enjoyed the strongest recent months, she has the benefit of an impressive finish to 2025 that included the WTA 250 Ningbo Open title and the WTA Finals crown. In fact, she is the player defending the most points during the final stretch of the season, meaning that if she fails to reach the top of the rankings this time, her chances could become increasingly limited in the coming weeks as she has fewer opportunities to add points while carrying a large number of points to defend.

Meanwhile, Pegula, Gauff and Sabalenka will arrive in New York relatively close to one another in terms of points accumulated over the last 52 weeks. An early exit could push any of them out of the No. 1 discussion for the rest of the season, while a deep run — even without winning the title — would keep their chances alive in the coming weeks.

However, everything depends on Rybakina failing to win the tournament. If she lifts the US Open trophy, she would become almost unreachable at the top, at least until the WTA Finals in November.

Sabalenka needs to defend her title to remain at the top of the rankings. Reaching the final would not be enough, even if Rybakina were eliminated in the first round. However, the Kazakh is not the only player who can take over the No. 1 ranking, with both Pegula and Gauff also able to become world No. 1 — and both would do so for the first time in their careers — if they win the title.

It will be interesting to see how the top four perform in New York, as the end of the season could become particularly volatile at the top of the rankings. We could see more than one change in the coming weeks, something that has not happened for some time given the Sabalenka-Swiatek dominance at the top since Ash Barty's retirement in 2022.

Mirra Andreeva could also join the equation soon. The Russian is currently No. 5 in the rankings, and even winning the US Open would not be enough for her to take over the top spot immediately.

However, she is the player with the fewest points to defend during the final stretch of the season. In fact, she is the only one among the leading contenders who did not compete at the WTA Finals last year, meaning she has no points to defend from an event that awards up to 1,500 points for the champion, along with significant points available for each round-robin victory.

Andreeva is already inside the top three of the Race to the WTA Finals, practically level with Sabalenka and only around 300 points behind Rybakina. That means she could soon become part of the discussion for the world No. 1 ranking, and what she does in New York could be crucial to determining just how quickly that conversation develops.