The US Open draw has created a huge problem for Carlos Alcaraz — and Novak Djokovic is at the centre of it

The 2026 US Open draw, released on Thursday, did Carlos Alcaraz no favours. The defending champion has landed in the same half as Novak Djokovic, setting up a potential semifinal between two of the sport's biggest names. On paper, that's the kind of blockbuster tennis wants. For Alcaraz specifically, arriving into the tournament undercooked and with a genuinely loaded section standing between him and that semifinal, it's closer to a nightmare draw.

The Djokovic angle isn't even the only injury story shaping this half of the bracket. Both men arrive with real questions over their fitness, which makes the idea of an Alcaraz-Djokovic semifinal as uncertain as it is appealing — a blockbuster that depends on two players who each have their own reasons to doubt they'll even get there.

Alcaraz hasn't played a competitive singles match since a wrist injury forced him out of the Barcelona Open in mid-April — more than four months ago. His only tennis since has been a mixed doubles appearance alongside Serena Williams during the tournament's Fan Week, which ended in an early exit. His actual return to singles competition comes against Roman Safiullin, a player who has already beaten him once, in straight sets at the 2023 Paris Masters.

That opener alone would be a concern for a player low on match rhythm. What follows is worse: a projected third-round meeting with 30th seed Matteo Arnaldi, a fourth-round test against the unpredictable Alexander Bublik, and a likely quarter-final against either Ben Shelton or Arthur Fils — the two most recent Masters 1000 champions, having won Montreal and Cincinnati respectively within the past month. Only after clearing all of that would Alcaraz even reach the semifinal where Djokovic is projected to be waiting.

Djokovic isn't arriving at Flushing Meadows in ideal shape either. He collapsed during the Cincinnati Open last month, later describing it as a health issue made worse by heat and humidity, and cut short a practice session in the days leading into the draw.

At 39 (turning 40 next year), and chasing a record-extending 25th Grand Slam singles title and a fifth US Open crown, his own path is not without danger — Daniil Medvedev, the 2021 champion looking for a bounce-back result, is projected to await in the quarter-final.

Alcaraz and Djokovic are level at 5-5 in their head-to-head, and their only meeting in 2026 came in the Australian Open final, which Alcaraz won. That result, more than the overall series score, is what makes a US Open semifinal so tantalising — the two most recent versions of this rivalry have both mattered enormously, and a New York meeting would arrive with a Grand Slam final on the line in all but name.

It also captures the split nature of men's tennis at this US Open. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew before the tournament with a knee injury, elevating Alexander Zverev — this year's French Open champion — to the top seed, with a noticeably gentler-looking route through the other half of the draw. Alcaraz and Djokovic, by contrast, must first survive their own bodies and a stacked set of opponents before the sport even gets the semifinal it's hoping for.

None of that guarantees anything. Safiullin has already shown he can trouble Alcaraz, Bublik is capable of beating anyone on a given day, and Djokovic's own health situation is a real variable rather than a footnote. But if both players do navigate their halves, the US Open will have exactly the semifinal it wants — even if getting there was never going to be simple for either of them.