How Mirra Andreeva went from 6,551 points behind Aryna Sabalenka to threatening her world No. 2 ranking

Mirra Andreeva's 6-4, 6-0 thrashing over Aryna Sabalenka in the second set of round robin matches at the WTA Finals was significant in more ways than one. On the face of it, it confirms the Roland Garros champion safe passageway into the semi-finals in her debut campaign while leaving Sabalenka in a precarious position. That is also the case in the WTA rankings, with Andreeva closing in on breaking even more ground.

Sabalenka got out of the blocks quicker in Indian Wells. Both players had won their opening match and were eager to extend their advantage in the table. Sabalenka seemed to be on her merry way, breaking the Andreeva serve en route to a 4-1 lead. From that point onwards, she did not win another game.

Andreeva won 45 of the next 55 points, overturning the break deficit to win the opening set before romping into the distance. She dropped two points on serve in the second set as a mentally drained Sabalenka faced a similar storyline that has summed up her season.

Her distinctive collapse gifted Andreeva her second win over the Belarusian and conjures up some interesting alterations in the live rankings. As things stand, Andreeva will rise into World No.2, bumping Sabalenka out of the top two for the first time since the week commencing 19th June 2023.

At the end of 2025, Sabalenka had bridged an insurmountable lead to the rest of the pack. Her WTA Finals final run saw her continue to extend that gap to her rivals, aside from the champion, Elena Rybakina.

That was just one year ago, with a lot of tennis played since then. Andreeva trailed Sabalenka by a whopping 6,551 points. She had big points to defend as well early in the season. These came in the WTA 1000 title defences in Dubai and Indian Wells, both ending in quarter-final and third round exits respectively.

Shortly after this, Sabalenka went on a rampage. She was a league above the rest in both California and Florida, winning the Sunshine swing and leading at the top of the WTA rankings by a huge distance. The feeling was that her gap would continue to build and build. How wrong that could be.

She has not won a title since the Miami Open success. She has played in every Grand Slam and WTA 1000 event since, along with the Berlin Ladies Open at WTA 500 level. That event in the German capital ended at the semi-final stage, with her best WTA 1000 showing coming in Madrid with a quarter-final defeat to Hailey Baptiste the beginning of a tumultuous period. The US Open was a rare glimmer of hope, but the two-time champion failed to defend her title at the hands of Rybakina in similar fashion to the Australian Open.

All this time, she was dropping points. Moving back to the clay swing, and Andreeva was starting to motor. A late wildcard in Linz, she capitalised on this fully by winning the title before reaching a third WTA 1000 final, a first on clay in Madrid. Marta Kostyuk was the victor, but she got her revenge in the French capital, defeating the Ukrainian before seeing off Maja Chwalinska in an accomplished display to win a first ever Grand Slam title.

A bit of a lull in form followed before a commendable run to the quarter-finals of the US Open for the first time was overshadowed by two missed match points against Coco Gauff. She soon got back on track, making a second WTA 1000 final in 2026, but was powerless in Beijing against Zheng Qinwen. Nevertheless, that was a huge tally of ranking points added to her collection and a huge swing in her favour after Sabalenka lost her opening match of a WTA 1000 tournament for the first time since the 2025 Qatar Open.

A crucial point to make in this period was that Sabalenka also relinquished control of the World No.1 spot. That occurred after Rybakina saw off Zheng in the quarter-finals of the US Open. Her 99-week reign of terror had come to an end. She was hopeful of striking right back at the Kazakh, but her attention has since been reverted to over her shoulder as Andreeva looms.

The 19-year-old made the trip back to Indian Wells with the gap so much closer than before.

Rybakina will finish the year as World No.1, but the battle behind is one of intrigue and anticipation. The points at the WTA Finals work differently from any normal WTA tournament fans have been accustomed to over the last 11 months.

Each win in the round robin phase is worth 200 points. That means Andreeva has so far collected 400 points, with Sabalenka picking up 200. The gap before was 179 points. That means in this current period in time, Andreeva is above Sabalenka in the live rankings.

If Sabalenka fails to make it out of Group B into the knockout stages, Andreeva will be the World No.2. Well, at least for the time being.

(as of livetennis.eu)

Over in Group A, American duo Jessica Pegula and Gauff are also mathematically within touching distance of the top two. It would be a joint career-high for Gauff, but new heights for Pegula. After both picking up one win apiece, only one of them will advance from Group A. A semi-final win will guratantee the players 400 points, with 500 on the line for victory in the final.

Added to the possible 200 points Gauff and/or Pegula could collect if they prevail in their final group match, that is, a maximum count of 1,100 points. Only one of Pegula and Gauff can seize this points tally, and that would be enough to surpass Sabalenka.

This would be redundant if Sabalenka reaches the final. Even a semi-final could leave her short if one of the Americans or Andreeva wins the title.

Tonight, all the focus is on Group A. Linda Noskova has already qualified after defeating alternative Marta Kostyuk and Gauff in her opening two matches of her debut tournament. She will take on Pegula with the 32-year-old having the slender upper hand on her fellow countrywoman.

Before that, the already departed Kostyuk will look to restore some pride against Gauff who needs to win. However, that may not be enough if Pegula topples the Wimbledon champion.

Group B will conclude on Friday. The already qualified Andreeva faces Karolina Muchova, who has exited the tournament following her opening two losses. It is then a winners-take-all tussle between Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina.

The 2018 winner is back competing for the first time since reaching the final in 2019 and dug herself out of a perilous hole against Muchova in a stunning comeback. The winner of the two will progress, while the other will be forced to watch the rest of the event from the sidelines.

After the 2026 that Sabalenka has endured, that Andreeva defeat truly pictured the dismal narrative settled around her. Losing two Grand Slam finals, her World No.1 spot, no title since March and possibly a first round robin exit since her debut in 2021. All the while, Andreeva sits above her in the live WTA rankings, waiting for the possibility of her breaking new ground. While all the focus for the players will be picking up that coveted title, the WTA rankings will most certainly be in the back of their minds.