“I know what to expect now”: Elena Rybakina sends message in No. 1 race ahead of hardcourt swing
WTATuesday, 04 August 2026 at 20:13
Elena Rybakina believes the upcoming hardcourt swing represents a major opportunity as she enters a decisive period in the battle for the WTA No. 1 ranking. The Kazakh star arrives at the Canadian Open knowing that a strong run across the next five weeks could put her in position to overtake Aryna Sabalenka at the top of the standings.
Rybakina spoke about her mindset during her pre-tournament press conference in Toronto, where she reflected on the different experience of winning titles compared to earlier stages of her career. The 27-year-old arrives after a mixed first half of the season but remains among the leading contenders heading into one of the most important stretches of the calendar.
The world No. 2 currently trails Sabalenka in the rankings, but the gap could dramatically change during the North American summer. The upcoming weeks feature two WTA 1000 tournaments and the US Open, where Sabalenka is defending 2,000 points as the reigning champion.
While Sabalenka faces significant pressure to protect her position, Rybakina enters the hardcourt season with the chance to gain ground. The former Wimbledon champion has traditionally performed well on the surface, including deep runs at Indian Wells and Miami earlier this season.
Rybakina admits clay and grass seasons “didn’t go the way I wanted”
Rybakina arrives in Canada looking to rediscover the form that has made her one of the most dangerous hardcourt players on tour. After a disappointing clay and grass swing, the Kazakh admitted that her results did not reflect the work done behind the scenes.
“Clay and grass didn't go the way I wanted. We've been practicing well, but in the matches I couldn't show much,” Rybakina said. “So I'm looking for this hardcourt season and hopefully it's going to be much better than clay and grass.”
The 2026 season has already included significant success for Rybakina, including strong performances on hard courts, but she will need consistent results in the coming tournaments to challenge Sabalenka’s No. 1 position.
Rybakina also reflected on how experience has changed her perspective when dealing with important moments in her career. The Kazakh explained that, after several years on tour, she now has a better understanding of what to expect after both winning and losing, which has made things easier mentally.
“Definitely it was different,” Rybakina said, reflecting on winning a title with more experience compared to earlier stages of her career. “Much more experience I got throughout the years, and of course knowing what's actually might happen after you win, after you lose, and what to expect, it's kind of easier mentally.”
Rybakina faces immediate test against Kasatkina in Toronto
The Kazakh’s first challenge in the Canadian Open will come against former world No. 10 Daria Kasatkina, who enters the tournament after defeating Xinyu Wang in a dramatic opening match, winning 1-6, 7-6, 7-6.
Rybakina leads the head-to-head record against Kasatkina 3-2, although the matchup has historically been competitive. Their most recent meeting came in the final of Abu Dhabi in 2024, where Rybakina claimed the title.
With the No. 1 ranking within reach, every match during the North American swing carries additional significance. Rybakina will look to turn her hardcourt strengths into another deep tournament run and apply pressure on Sabalenka ahead of the US Open.
WTA No. 1 battle: Projected Rankings Over the Next 5 Weeks
Several top-ranked players are set to defend a significant number of points over the coming weeks, including Aryna Sabalenka’s 2,000 points from her US Open title. Elena Rybakina appears to have the strongest opportunity to emerge from the North American swing as the new world No. 1, although she will need better results than her rival given that the next five weeks feature two WTA 1000 events and a Grand Slam tournament.
| Rank | Player | Current Points | Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Change by Sep 7 |
| 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 8,560 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 8,345 | 6,345 | ▼ 1 |
| 2 | Elena Rybakina | 7,731 | 7,351 | 7,351 | 7,351 | 7,112 | ▲ 1 |
| 3 | Jessica Pegula | 6,570 | 6,505 | 6,505 | 6,505 | 5,725 | — |
| 4 | Coco Gauff | 5,539 | 5,324 | 5,324 | 5,324 | 5,084 | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Mirra Andreeva | 5,269 | 5,269 | 5,269 | 5,269 | 5,140 | ▲ 1 |
Projected No. 1 scenario: Sabalenka enters the five-week stretch with a 829-point lead over Rybakina, but her advantage is vulnerable due to major points dropping. By September 7, Rybakina would move ahead in the projection, while Sabalenka’s total would fall to 6,345 points.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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