New name at the summit? Aryna Sabalenka under threat of squandering number one spot at US Open

Aryna Sabalenka has had a firm grip on the valuable number one seed for almost a year now. She snatched the top spot off rival Iga Swiatek in the WTA Finals, and has looked imperious defending it. However, her reign on the top step could come to an abrupt end with the chasing pack sensing an opportunity.

The 27-year-old first got the number one ranking back in September 2023, when she reached the final of the US Open, losing to Coco Gauff. This was helped by an underwhelming run from former number one Swiatek and Sabalenka's consistency on the big stage, which included her first Grand Slam in Melbourne. She went and defended that title the next year, failing to drop a set in the process. She fell back down to second with the Pole winning four Masters 1000 titles ahead of Roland Garros, which she succeeded in.

Sabalenka would lose more ground after missing Wimbledon, but fought back to the top after a successful US Open triumph and a strong end to the year.Sabalenka had put daylight between her and the out-of-form Swiatek, but as the final Grand Slam of 2025 approaches, things may be once again changing at the top of the WTA rankings.

When you earn ranking points from a tournament, you have to defend them the next year. The better you do, the more points are at stake and the potential of plummeting down the rankings. Despite a strong year, Sabalenka needs to find her best form if she is to stay ahead of Swiatek and Gauff.

Her US Open win last year was added with a Masters 1000 victory in Wuhan, along with a quarter-final at the China Open, leaving 3,215 points to defend at the end of the year. This is compared to the measly 430 points Swiatek amassed, with her only reaching the quarter-finals in New York and not turning up in China. A strong end to the year gives her a significant opportunity to regain her top spot if Sabalenka does not reach the unmissable heights she has recently sailed to on the tennis court. Gauff is also threatening to dethrone Sabalenka, with her now just 59 points behind Swiatek after she was nicked off second spot in Cincinnati.

All these players have proved they can win the US Open, sharing the last three tournaments out of each. Going into it, Sabalenka is under the most pressure but has made it to every hardcourt Grand Slam final since the end of 2022, when she reached the semis, losing out to the champ Swiatek. Going into it, her form has not been the best. Losing out in the Wimbledon semi-finals to Amanda Anisimova was a bitter disappointment, and she has only played one tournament since, in Cincinnati, failing to get past the quarters.

It is a different story for Swiatek. Despite her Roland Garros streak coming to an end, she put it behind her and went on to claim her first Wimbledon title. She backed that up with a win in Cincinnati, closing the gap to her rival, whilst also pushing herself back up into the top two, ahead of Gauff, whose clay form has not transferred over to the other surfaces. She became the youngest person to reach the Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros final in the same year. Since then, she lost in the first round of Wimbledon whilst enduring frustrating campaigns in Montreal and Cincinnati, failing to close the gap at the top.

A title at Flushing Meadows for either Swiatek or Gauff could put them on the top step. Sabalenka reigns supreme at the top with 11,225 ranking points, with 2,000 poised to come off. If she reaches the quarter-finals, then the Belarusian is safe for now. If she fails to, and one of her rivals lifts the trophy, they will be at the top of the ladder. The event kicks off on Sunday with the opening round. The defending champion starts her campaign against Rebeka Masarova, Swiatek will play Emiliana Arango, while Gauff faces off against Ajla Tomljanovic.