PREVIEW | WTA Madrid Open 2025 – Final: Can Coco Gauff's H2H advantage stop Aryna Sabalenka?

This Saturday will be the women's final of the WTA 1000 in Madrid, where Aryna Sabalenka will face Coco Gauff. The Belarusian will seek to improve her performance from last year, where she fell at this same stage, while the American will go in search of her first title of the year.

The world No. 1 is the favorite to win the Madrid tournament, but the head-to-head record favors Gauff.

Aryna Sabalenka continues to demonstrate why she is the world No. 1, reaching the final in Madrid, a tournament she already won in 2023 when she defeated Iga Swiatek 6-3, 3-6, 6-3. Furthermore, last year she also reached the final of the event, where the finalists were the same, but on that occasion, the Pole took the tournament 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(9-7).

The Belarusian has been playing at a high level in Madrid, where she has only lost one set in all her matches (against Mertens in the round of 32). To reach the grand final, she defeated Elina Svitolina 6-3, 7-5.

Sabalenka will try to win her second WTA 1000 of the year; the previous one was in Miami, where she defeated Jessica Pegula 7-5, 6-2.

The American has had a dream tournament in Madrid, where she defeated Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals 7-5, 6-1 and crushed Iga Swiatek in the semifinals 6-1, 6-1. Moreover, like Sabalenka, Gauff has only lost one set in the tournament (against Yastremska in the round of 64).

Coco has seen a resurgence in her level on Spanish soil, as she had not surpassed the quarterfinals of a tournament since the WTA Finals, a tournament she won after defeating Qinwen Zheng 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.

Gauff also became the youngest player since 2009 to reach the women's semifinal in Madrid, a feat achieved by Caroline Wozniacki in that year. This will be Gauff's third final on clay, a stage she had not reached on this surface since the 2022 Roland Garros final.

In matches between the two players, the record favors Gauff 5-4. Furthermore, on clay, it is 1-0 in favor of the American, and Coco also emerged victorious in the only final they have faced.

Their most recent encounter was at the Riyadh WTA Finals, where Gauff defeated Sabalenka 7-6(4), 6-3.