The US Open has done something women's tennis hasn't seen in 51 years

The US Open semi-final lineup has been complete, and while the names are very much familiar to the latter stages of a Grand Slam tournament, there is a unique feel surrounding these four players.

One of Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina will lift the US Open trophy this Saturday with the fourth and final major event of the year drawing to a mesmerising conclusion. The storylines that could rise from each of these victories are tantalising, but there is also another significant factor about this lineup.

These four WTA talents came into the tournament as the top four seeds. In what has been a relatively shock-free WTA US Open compared to other tennis events this year, (e.g. Roland Garros) it may come as a surprise to some that these players have not stumbled up at any point.

The history books will side with that view. Incredibly, this has not occurred since 1975. Chris Evert won that edition as the number one seed on home soil, taking down Evonne Cawley in a comeback final win. All of this leads to another question: is this the start of a new 'big four' in women's tennis?

Grand Slam tennis is never supposed to be this easy. That is why this unique record has stood for 51 years at Flushing Meadows. The pressure that is placed upon these top players is sometimes too much to take with there also more matches leading up to the semi-final to be played than other tournaments, making the risk of an early exit more common.

The women's draw over time has draw up this formidable reputation that is ominously clouding over the top players who know an early slip-up could prove to be hugely damaging. On this specific occasion, this cruel fate has not occurred to any of the top four seeds this time around in New York.

If it was to happen to any of them, recent form may have suggested Sabalenka, although her impenetrable form in this event says otherwise. The reigning two-time champion has reached the semi-finals in her prior five participations and is aiming for a fourth consecutive final. Nevertheless, this is the first last-four the Belarusian has featured in since the Miami Open title run, showing off a recent tendency to lose earlier than expected.

All of this has culminated in a 99 week stay at the top of the WTA Rankings scuppered as Rybakina finally took advantage. A clumsy clay and grass swing which saw her also fall to early defeats halted what was a blistering return to form with the WTA Finals and Australian Open titles having been previously won. A first semi-final at the US Open is a deserved one for the Kazakh whose best form has returned at the North American hardcourt swing.

For Pegula, she may have toppled Sabalenka as the most consistent player in the big tournaments. In 10 Grand Slam and WTA 1000 participations in 2026, she has failed to reach the quarter-final stage only three times, two of which on clay. However, the question mark over the 32-years-old head is the levels that she can get to compared to her rivals. Just one WTA 1000 title won in 2026 and zero Grand Slam triumphs in her career make for tough reading. She may be consistently better than most players on tour, but getting over the final hurdle has been a challenge.

Gauff has not had that problem being a two-time Grand Slam champion. It is a weird one with Gauff. She is either extremely good and blows away opponents, or distinctively average and is dragged into tense and stressful matches. Nevertheless, the same outcome normally arises. Currently, she is playing some incredible tennis on home soil having won 20 consecutive sets in a run that saw her win the Cincinnati Open title and confirm her spot in the US Open semi-final. A scare was diverted against Mirra Andreeva, but the fact that she can win a tennis match in numerous ways is so crucial and what makes her an incredibly dangerous player.

In men's tennis over the past two decades, the semi-finals of Grand Slam events are consistently made up of the likes of the 'Big Three', Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Alexander Zverev, etc. As time went on, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner were the two regular players in this part of the tournament with Zverev the only player to have achieved this result in all four major events this year.

In the Australian Open, all four top seeds made this point, but it was not deemed too surprising. It happens for the women months later, and it has caught the attention of many tennis fans. This is caused by the reputation that the WTA have created for itself.

The gap in women's tennis from the best to the rest is not huge. The best-of-three set format compared to the best-of-five the men use makes an upset more likely and probable with there less time to correct a mistake or recover a deficit with these female players treading on a thin wire.

An established top seed can be stunned by an outsider in the first round. Many examples of this have occurred this year. Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Rybakina, Anastasia Potapova vs Coco Gauff and Kimberly Birrell v Pegula all occurred at Roland Garros. Qualifier Maja Chwalinska reached the final when the top players were watching from afar.

This time, however, the higher ranked competitors has avoided this fate with this striking comparison deemed useless this time around. Not only that, but how these four brilliant tennis players have reached this stage. Sabalenka has dropped one set, Pegula two, Gauff one and Rybakina one. Just five sets between them with only Sabalenka and Gauff being dragged into really scary situations in their quarter-finals.

The fact that they have all survived all these tests without being consistently tested deserves some notice, and most definitely a lot of credit.

The ATP had the 'Big Three' consisting of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, and even now Alcaraz and Sinner are steaming away from the chasing pack. Could there soon be a selection of WTA players who bridge a sizeable gap to the rest. If this is the case, there is a strong argument that these four players will be making this prestigious group.

Partly based on the rankings, it comes down to their inevitable class for Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff while Pegula's remarkable consistency keeps her in touch. However, it would be very naive to just shrug off the rest of the competition.

Six-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek is having a nightmare campaign despite winning the Canadian Open title amid a late resurgence which was botched at the US Open. The Pole has been the dominant force in recent times on the WTA Tour, but these two years of average results compared to what she was used to has pushed her away from the upper echelons of the sport.

Andreeva and Linda Noskova have won more Grand Slams in 2026 than all the semi-finalists bar Rybakina. There are so many other names whether former greats slowly finding their feet on court once more or young talents touted and destined for greatness who could breach this group, making the chance of a Big Four consisting of Sabalenka, Rybakina, Pegula and Gauff somewhat unlikely. Despite this, the US Open is a snapshot into where the WTA Tour currently stands.

So now comes the big question on the tip of everyone's tongues: who will win the 2026 WTA US Open? It would be a third in a row for Sabalenka, a second of 2026 for Rybakina, third major triumph for Gauff and a maiden breakthrough for Pegula.

In each of their matches coming to this stage, they were the favourites to prevail despite the upset threat looming overhead. Now, there is a sense of unpredictability not always seen in this stage of a Grand Slam. Each player has an argument of winning their last-four showdown and going on to win the title, but they must showcase that on the court with it easier said than done.

First up will be a repeat of last year's semi-final and the 2024 final between Sabalenka and Pegula. The American has had a tendency of stepping onto the court with Sabalenka and leaving as the loser. 13 times they have clashed, and nine times the four-time Grand Slam champion has come out on top. Seemingly back to her imperious best in formidable surroundings, Sabalenka will be the one to beat not just in this semi-final, but the overall tournament. However, their last meeting went the way of Pegula in Berlin. Their last four contests have gone the distance, setting up what could be a hugely thrilling semi-final.

Closely following suit on Arthur Ashe will be Gauff and Rybakina's turn. They will know who their potential final opponent will be, but the focus has to be in the moment on court. Similar in the opening tie, the American contingent will be firmly on the side of their player, in this instance Gauff, and that could make somewhat of a difference. Her vulnerabilities with her serve and forehand are still there, but ironed out a lot compared to this time last year. Andreeva tactically hammered the ball towards Gauff's forehand but the 23-year-old was able to weather the storm. Rybakina will be a different type of challenge. If the new World No.1 can find her first serve on a regular basis, the writing could be on the wall for Gauff. They have only played twice before, both coincidentally in Toronto with one win apiece. Rybakina prevailed in the most recent contest less than a month ago. A positive sign heading into the concluding semi-final.

From that point onwards, the final lineup will be decided. The anticipation has never been higher with fourth of the world's best in pole position for glory. For 51 years the US Open has waited for a scenario like this one. While it may be the most predictable lineup, the winner is most certainly unpredictable.