ANALYSIS: Top five men's contenders for Olympic Games as Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz battle for gold medal glory

The Paris Olympics are only a few days away, so let's see how the event might go. Plenty of great players are contending, but which players are most likely to win the Olympic gold medal?

This year’s Paris Olympics are somewhat special in the sense that they will be played on clay. This is a significant departure from the norm, as the games are usually played on hard courts. The last time we had the Olympic Games on clay was in 1992; in 2012, it was on grass. The rest of them, since 1984, have all been on hard courts. This shift to clay adds a unique context, as some players have a proven track record on this surface, which will be a crucial factor in the following list.

Carlos Alcaraz

We have to start the favourites list with Carlos Alcaraz because nobody has played better tennis than him in the past two months. The Spaniard won the last two Grand Slams, one of which was played on clay. In fact, it was played on the same courts where the Olympic Games will be played. He didn’t play his best tennis in Paris, yet he was able to overcome everybody else to lift the trophy.

Read also

TV Guide and Tournament Schedule: How to watch 2024 Paris Olympic Games Tennis in your region

That makes him the number one favourite because he’s playing the best tennis. He won Roland Garros relatively comfortably despite having to play back-to-back five-setters in the semi-final and final. They were complicated matches for sure, but he seemed in control in both of them, which is utterly impressive when you remember that he truly didn’t play his best tennis.

Alexander Zverev

The number two favourite to win the gold medal in Paris is Alexander Zverev. Zverev has been the most consitent Roland Garros player in the past few years because he made the final this year, and before that, he made the semi-final 3 years in a row. That’s an undeniable streak which shows how comfortable he is on the courts in Paris. He’s generally a really good clay player, and he took two sets from Alcaraz in the final.

The confidence, experience, and familiarity with the courts and conditions are there, and he is the defending champion. Zverev was the player who won the gold medal in Tokyo, so it's expected that he'll be very motivated. The format being the best of there might also benefit him because he was up 2-1 against Carlos Alcaraz after three sets in the final. Just think about that.

Alexander Zverev won last time in Tokyo.

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner is among the players likely to win the gold medal in Paris simply because he’s been so amazing this year. We have to note that the Italian is dealing with some physical issues and is not yet confirmed to play in Paris, but let’s say that he will play. If he plays, he’ll certainly be among those likely to win because he was utterly spectacular in Paris earlier this year.

The only player who stopped his run in Paris was Carlos Alcaraz and it took a hell of an effort to get it done because Sinner didn’t make it easy at all. The format, being the best of three, is certainly going to benefit him greatly because he did have a physical lapse in that match against Alcaraz. The best-of-three format allows players like Sinner to pace themselves and conserve energy, which could give them an advantage in the later stages of the tournament.

Had that match against Carlos Alcaraz been a best-of-three match, you kind of feel that Sinner would have had an easier time, but we’ll see what happens in Paris. If he does show up and is fully healthy, the Italian will certainly be a major contender to win a medal.

*Since writing, he has withdrawn from the tournament.

Read also

Promised Italian tennis dominance at Paris Olympics thwarted by Sinner's untimely withdrawal

Novak Djokovic

We can’t really talk about the Olympics without mentioning Novak Djokovic. While the Serbian hasn’t been spectacular this year, his run at Wimbledon certainly proves that he’s slowly getting closer to his best tennis. Time will tell whether he’ll have it in Paris and he might be in the 2nd tier of favourites but we’re talking about one of the greatest tennis players of all time, so he’s obviously going ot be among the favourites.

What makes him most dangerous, apart from his skill, is his motivation. Djokovic has never won a gold medal at the Olympic Games, and that’s a pretty big deal. He’s called it the biggest regret of his career, so he’ll be very motivated, as these games are likely the final ones he’ll ever play.

The next ones in Los Angeles are in four years, and he’ll be over 40 then, so his chances of winning there are pretty low. This is for him, and as they say, champions play their best when it matters the most. Djokovic's strong motivation to win a gold medal at the Olympics could significantly impact his performance, making him a formidable contender.

Novak Djokovic will finally attempt to claim his final piece of his collection

Rafael Nadal

Another player whose case will be made on similar grounds is Rafael Nadal. He’s by far the weakest of the favourites from this list, but it’s Rafael Nadal and the Roland Garros courts. Don’t doubt that he can produce a legendary level for a couple of matches to find himself in the semi-final or something, especially with the best-of-three format, where he can push from the start without having to worry about ending up in a 5-hour match.

His performance at Roland Garros earlier in his year against Alexander Zverev was pretty decent, and he’s gotten a few more matches in since then. If he can find something resembling his best tennis and if he gets a favourable draw, then he can certainly find himself in the last 8. If he gets to that stage well, then it’s silly to doubt him because in tennis anything can happen in a tennis match.

He’ll be on the courts, where he made history like no other, and he’s certainly motivated. So while he might be the least likely to win a Gold medal, he’s still far more likely to do so than the rest of the field outside of those players mentioned before him. That’s just how much respect he commands on clay, especially in Paris.