ATP Finals Day 4 Schedule & Preview: Alcaraz seeks redemption vs. Rublev, Zverev eyes semifinals Spot against Ruud

The fourth day of the ATP Finals brings back the John Newcombe Group for their second Round Robin matches. In the opening group matches, Carlos Alcaraz will fight to stay alive in the tournament, while Alexander Zverev could secure his spot in the semifinals.

The Spanish 4-time Grand Slam champion will face 8th seed Andrey Rublev, in a match where the loser could be definitively eliminated, though they’ll have to wait for the outcome of Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud, winners of the first round, who will compete for the group lead.

The biggest surprise at the start of the Finals was Alcaraz’s loss to Ruud (1-6, 5-7), especially given the Norwegian’s recent form, with only one win in his last seven matches, and a 0-4 head-to-head record against Alcaraz. However, “Carlitos” was below his usual standard and later admitted he feels physically and mentally exhausted at this season's end.

Despite Alcaraz’s initial setback, he still has time to turn things around, although a victory against Rublev is essential, especially considering that in the third match, he’ll face World No. 2 Zverev. Alcaraz needs to improve in pressure situations, having converted only one of his six break points, while Ruud won 4 out of 4. In fact, Ruud won 9 out of the 10 break points during the match (both with his serve and against).

Alcaraz managed 25 winners, but they were overshadowed by his 34 unforced errors in just two sets, something he’ll need to improve if he wants a chance against Rublev, who has one of the best forehands on tour and could trouble Alcaraz in cross-court exchanges if he’s on form.

Rublev, however, also isn’t in great form, with four losses in his last five matches. The 27-year-old suffered a defeat to Zverev in his opener (4-6, 4-6), where he could do little against an on-fire “Sascha,” who won 80% of his service points. Though Rublev competed well for much of the match, he couldn’t earn a single break point, while Zverev converted both of his chances. In exchanges with the German, Rublev couldn’t capitalize either, scoring 10 winners to the World No. 2’s 22.

For both players, it will be key to dominate the points quickly and maintain a high first-serve percentage, especially Alcaraz, who seemed more vulnerable in this area. The Spaniard is favored, though given both players’ current form, it’s an open match where reducing errors and consistent serving could make the difference.

The two first-day winners have a good chance to secure the group lead. Alexander Zverev, along with Sinner, has shown the most dominant serving performance in the tournament so far, and if he maintains his effectiveness, it will be a challenge for anyone in the draw to beat him. "Sascha" may receive less attention than Sinner and Alcaraz as a favorite, though he’s tied with the Italian for wins this season (both with 67).

The debut against Rublev demonstrated that he could assert his contender status, winning 80% of his service points and offering no break points. With seven appearances and two titles in the Finals (2018, 2021), the German is the tournament’s most experienced player, a fact that can't be overlooked when considering his ability to perform consistently and deliver a high level on indoor hard courts.

As for Ruud, he seemed to be the least in-form player at the season’s end, with a poor 1-6 record post-Laver Cup, including three losses to players outside the top 40. However, the 2022 Finals runner-up managed a solid win over Alcaraz in his opener, carrying hopes of another victory against a seemingly favored opponent.

The Norwegian 3-time Grand Slam finalist impressed with his effectiveness under pressure and consistency from the baseline. While not one of the Tour’s best servers, he adapts well to indoor hard courts thanks to his consistent returns, especially from his forehand.

The shorter the points, the better the chances for Zverev, who’s more comfortable on faster courts. Ruud will need to capitalize on key moments, maintain consistency on serve, and avoid Zverev’s backhand, where he could be at a disadvantage. Zverev currently leads the head-to-head 4-2 (3-1 on hard courts).