ATP Finals Day 5 Schedule & Preview: Sinner leads the pack as Fritz battle for semifinal spot

The fifth day of the ATP Finals will feature the final matches of the John Newcombe Group, with Jannik Sinner leading the standings. This will be the last round for the group, which also includes Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur, all still in contention for advancement.

Despite Sinner’s two wins, he is not yet mathematically qualified. He will face Medvedev, and winning just one set will secure his place in the semifinals. On the other hand, Fritz achieved a crucial victory over the Russian and needs another win, while de Minaur’s hopes rely on a decisive victory and a Sinner win over Medvedev.

Taylor Fritz achieved an essential victory over Daniil Medvedev in the first round, which appeared to be a pivotal match for securing the second spot in the round-robin, given world No. 1 Sinner’s strong favoritism. However, after losing to Sinner in straight sets, his qualification remains uncertain. The recent US Open finalist kept up with Sinner for much of the match, with a 79% success rate on first-serve points. However, he faltered on key points, failing to convert his only break opportunity, while Sinner took advantage of two out of six break chances.

De Minaur has a shot at qualifying but faces the toughest path. The Australian needs a strong win over Fritz, plus a commanding victory by Sinner over Medvedev to improve his game differential and reach second place in the group. His performances have been underwhelming, winning only 13 of the 37 games played, with heavy defeats to both Fritz and Medvedev.

Still, the 25-year-old has a strong record against Fritz, leading 6-3 in their previous nine encounters, including both of their indoor hard-court matches (Next Gen ATP Finals 2018, Basel 2019).

Though their head-to-head record is close at 7-7, Sinner has won seven of their last eight meetings, all on hard courts, with Medvedev’s lone win during this stretch on the grass courts of Wimbledon this season.

Sinner’s remarkable year, with 67 wins and seven titles, makes him a tournament favorite. Besides his strong season, he’s been flawless so far, with straightforward victories over De Minaur (6-3, 6-4) and Fritz (6-4, 6-4). The Italian, a two-time Grand Slam champion, has looked comfortable on this surface, and his improved forehand will be a key weapon against Medvedev, who prefers baseline rallies.

Medvedev, the 2022 US Open champion, had a rough start with a disappointing loss to Fritz, far from his usual level and visibly frustrated, as he threw his racket multiple times and argued with the chair umpire over the tournament’s balls. Nevertheless, he bounced back with a solid win over Alex de Minaur (6-2, 6-4), keeping his qualification hopes alive. Winning will be essential if he wants to advance—or at least taking a set and hoping de Minaur defeats Fritz in straight sets.

Medvedev never gave the Australian a chance on his serve, winning 84% of his first-serve points and 92% on his second serve, without conceding a single break point. While Medvedev’s form isn’t ideal to face Sinner, he will be ready to bring his best and aim for an upset.