The ATP Race to Turin continues to take shape, with the North American hard-court swing ahead of the US Open leaving several new conclusions and a number of names moving increasingly closer to securing their places at the ATP Finals at the end of the year.

We already knew that Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev had secured their qualification after facing each other in the Wimbledon final, with the Italian claiming his fifth Grand Slam title. However, the chasing pack is beginning to tighten and take shape with the final Grand Slam of the season just around the corner.

Arthur Fils was crowned champion at the Cincinnati Open and secured the biggest title of his career, while also breaking into the top five of the ATP Race, which only considers points won in 2026. He is just a few points behind Flavio Cobolli, who sits fourth in the Race after recently reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati.

Both Cobolli and Fils are now in an excellent position in the battle for Turin and could become debutants at the tournament featuring the eight best players of the season. The US Open will be a major test, but another deep run could effectively secure their chances of joining the elite group, and at this rate, we could even see both finishing the year inside the Race top five.

The leaders of the season, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev, failed to pull further away, continuing a trend that had characterized much of the season. This time, Sinner was out of competition because of injury, forcing him to withdraw from both Masters 1000 events while also ruling him out of next week's US Open.

Zverev's situation is more related to his tennis. A first-round defeat in Montreal followed by only a fourth-round appearance in Cincinnati are modest results for the world No. 2, who had previously won Roland Garros and reached the Wimbledon final during the European summer. On his return to North American hard courts, the German was below expectations.

The top three remains unchanged, with Carlos Alcaraz still third in the Race despite being out of competition. The Spaniard needed only a few tournaments to accumulate the 3,650 points that have kept him on the podium, and he is practically assured of qualifying for the ATP Finals as a Grand Slam champion this season. While the battle for the top of the Race looks more like a 2027 objective, Alcaraz knows that his place in Turin is secure as long as he can return to full physical condition.

While the top three are practically assured of reaching Turin and have been among the leaders throughout the season, none of them managed to add many points during the return to hard courts. The biggest beneficiaries were therefore the champions of the latest Masters 1000 events: Ben Shelton, who successfully defended his Canadian Open title, and Arthur Fils, who won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati.

The two are almost level in the Race. Fils has 3,140 points in fifth place, while Shelton has 3,130 in sixth. The champions of the last two Masters 1000 events will be among the players expected to make deep runs at the US Open and, just as they took advantage of their opportunities at the start of the hard-court swing, could now go deep and fight for the title in Flushing Meadows.

As far as their chances of qualifying for the ATP Finals are concerned, both already look like strong candidates to reach Turin. The same is true of Flavio Cobolli, the recent Cincinnati semifinalist and Roland Garros finalist earlier this year. The Italian is surprisingly fourth in the Race thanks to his consistency throughout the season, and only a major collapse would leave him outside the ATP Finals picture in a couple of months.

There are eight qualification places for the ATP Finals, and six names are now more or less clear. While Sinner, Zverev and Alcaraz appear practically guaranteed to reach Turin, Cobolli, Fils and Shelton have emerged as likely qualifiers and are only one step away from securing their places. A deep run in New York could be the final step toward making their qualification almost certain.

That leaves the final two spots as the main area of the battle, with several names already emerging as favorites although the race remains open until the final weeks. Daniil Medvedev currently sits seventh thanks to his consistency throughout the year, while Frances Tiafoe made a major move after reaching the Cincinnati Open final and climbing to eighth in the Race.

Big Foe was not even inside the top 15 just a few weeks ago, but he has now moved among the best players of the year thanks to his run to a second Masters 1000 final of the season. It will provide an important confidence boost heading into the final Grand Slam of the year.

Tiafoe will nevertheless face strong competition from Rafael Jodar, who is just 31 points behind the American, and Taylor Fritz, who sits 10th in the Race and only 50 points outside the qualification positions. Both still have their chances intact, and we could see either one in Turin if they manage a deep run in New York.

The contenders do not stop there. Six more names are chasing a place in Turin — or the possibility of finishing the season inside the top 10, another highly desirable achievement for any top player. Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Jakub Mensik, Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul are all separated by roughly 200 points, setting up a high-tension finish to the season with the US Open as the final big event capable of changing the picture in favor of any of them.