ATP Race Update: Carlos Alcaraz safe at No. 1, as Auger-Aliassime chases Musetti for Turin spot

With the Shanghai Masters finished, we enter the final stage of the season, and the ATP Race to Turin was updated with the surprises of the week—Valentin Vacherot and Arthur Rinderknech—making significant advances that could place them as seeds for the 2026 Australian Open.

With only one Masters 1000 tournament left to play, the year-end rankings are starting to be determined, in addition to the potential 8 qualifiers for the ATP Finals. Still, Carlos Alcaraz (11,040) and Jannik Sinner (8,500) are the only ones mathematically qualified, and the Spaniard has practically secured finishing the season at the top of the ranking, especially after Sinner's early exit in Shanghai.

Also practically qualified for the ATP Finals are Novak Djokovic (4,580) and Alexander Zverev (4,280), who have virtually secured their place in Turin and only a disaster could leave them out. They would be joined by Americans Taylor Fritz (3,835) and Ben Shelton (3,720), both with a good distance from the rest of the pursuers and with their qualification practically defined, although they still need to earn a few extra points in their upcoming tournaments at the Basel Open and Paris Masters.

Recall that the ATP Race to Turin measures exclusively the points earned in the calendar year since the start of the 2025 season, unlike the ATP Ranking which considers the last 52 weeks. However, with only a few weeks left in the season and only a handful of tournaments ahead, the spots are beginning to be defined for the season close.

There is little dispute for the final qualifying spots in the ATP Finals, marked by the injury of one of the contenders, Jack Draper. Alex De Minaur (3,545) and Lorenzo Musetti (3,435) are the ones who occupy the 7th and 8th positions respectively and would currently have their spot in Turin. Until a few weeks ago, Draper was practically tied with them, but an injury forced him to end the season, and he will have to await the results of the last few weeks to know if he manages to finish the year in the Top 10, despite being a fixture in the Top 5 of the Race just a few months ago.

Without Draper's presence in the final weeks, the only one who seems to have a clear chance of securing a spot in the Finals would be Félix Auger-Aliassime (2,905), who received a boost in his recent tournaments, reaching the quarterfinals at the Cincinnati Open, semifinals at the US Open, and quarterfinals again in Shanghai—in the latter, eliminating Musetti in the Round of 16.

The Canadian is currently little more than 500 points away from Musetti, while both compete in the Brussels Open this week, an ATP 250 category tournament. Auger-Aliassime also has three other tournaments left to play in the coming weeks, with the Paris Masters as the main objective. If Félix wants a place in the Finals, it will be necessary to fight for the title in Basel and reach at least the semifinals in Paris, in addition to hoping that Musetti or De Minaur fail to maintain the consistency of recent months.

Two names were surprises this week in Shanghai, with Valentin Vacherot lifting a trophy historically. The Monegasque—who was recently outside the Top 200—achieved an impressive advance in the Race up to No. 31, which would give him the possibility of starting 2026 in a seeded position for the Australian Open. If he manages to add a few more points in the final part of the year, finishing inside the Top 30 can be a boost, both in terms of prize money and securing his qualification for ATP 500 tournaments throughout the 2026 season.

Similar is the case of his cousin—and final opponent—Arthur Rinderknech. The Frenchman had already shown good things in recent tournaments, reaching the Round of 16 at the US Open and China Open. In Shanghai, things went well again, eliminating four Top 20 rivals—including World No. 3 Alexander Zverev—and placing himself at No. 26 in the Race. Like Vacherot, finishing the year in the Top 30 will surely be his primary goal to close out an epic 2025 in the best way.