Carlos Alcaraz faces his biggest rankings test of the year at the US Open — and he's not alone
ATPMonday, 03 August 2026 at 13:30
The North American hard-court swing could completely reshape the ATP rankings before the US Open. With Masters 1000 titles in Montreal and Cincinnati followed by the year's final Grand Slam, several of the Tour's biggest names are about to put huge chunks of their ranking points on the line. Some are defending career-defining results, while others have a golden opportunity to climb the rankings.
Carlos Alcaraz has 3,000 ranking points to defend. Jannik Sinner's grip on world No. 1 could finally come under pressure. Ben Shelton risks dropping out of the top 10, while Alexander Zverev has a golden opportunity to close the gap at the top. Over the next month, no part of the ATP rankings is safe.
Several top players arrive with a lot at stake during the next few weeks, with previous results set to play a major role in the battle for the top positions in the rankings. Carlos Alcaraz faces one of the biggest challenges, while Jannik Sinner enters the swing firmly established at the top but with Alexander Zverev still capable of closing the gap with a strong run.
The German has an important opportunity to challenge Sinner’s dominance, especially if he can contend for the biggest titles in North America and at the US Open. Meanwhile, several other contenders will look to make their move during this period, including players aiming to strengthen their position among the elite.
American stars Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz are also among those carrying significant pressure, defending important points after strong performances on home soil last season. Below, we review the ATP players with the most ranking points at risk before the US Open and what is at stake for each of them.
Pressure to stay among the top seeds at US Open
| Player | Points defending | Biggest result | Biggest risk |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 3,000 | Cincinnati & US Open champion | Biggest points haul on Tour to defend |
| Jannik Sinner | 1,900 | Cincinnati & US Open finalist | World No. 1 lead could shrink |
| Ben Shelton | 1,500 | Canadian Open champion | Could fall outside the top 10 |
| Félix Auger-Aliassime | 1,030 | US Open semi-final | Could lose top-10 position |
| Taylor Fritz | 1,000 | Canadian Open semi-final | Top-10 position under pressure |
| Alexander Zverev | 900 | Two Masters semi-finals | Opportunity to challenge for No. 1 |
| Novak Djokovic | 800 | US Open semi-final | ATP Finals qualification at stake |
Carlos Alcaraz: A staggering 3,000 points to defend
- Cincinnati Open: Champion (1,000)
- US Open: Champion (2,000)
No player enters the North American swing under more ranking pressure than Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard is defending a perfect 13-0 record, two titles and a staggering 3,000 ranking points. He posted a 13-0 record during the North American hardcourt swing and won consecutive titles at the Cincinnati Open and US Open. A total of 3,000 points will be at stake, and he will arrive without competitive rhythm. He will not be able to add points during the next few weeks, but he will need to fight for both titles if he wants to avoid a ranking drop.
The Spaniard has been away from competition for four months and will play his first tournament in Cincinnati — which will also be his only event to build rhythm ahead of the US Open. The seven-time major champion will surely not think too much about the ranking, but rather about feeling comfortable on court and being physically strong enough to fight for titles again.
Despite the significant amount of points he is defending, even in the worst-case scenario, a major ranking drop appears unlikely, and it is practically certain that Alcaraz will not leave the top-5 even if he is eliminated early. Even if Alcaraz slips in the rankings, his biggest objective will be proving he is physically ready to challenge for another major title.
Carlos Alcaraz has a staggering haul to defend.
Jannik Sinner: World No. 1—but now under pressure
- Cincinnati Open: Finalist (600)
- US Open: Finalist (1,300)
Jannik Sinner remains comfortably at world No. 1, but this could be the first time in months that his position comes under genuine pressure. For Sinner, defending points is also not among the most relevant concerns, and his main motivation will be to get revenge for his defeats in the finals of Cincinnati and the US Open. The Italian has a large lead at the top of the rankings, but the Race indicates that Zverev is getting closer and closer to Sinner.
This means that if the German continues adding points consistently and Sinner fails to match or improve his 2025 campaigns, his position as world No. 1 could be at risk during the final part of the season. Sinner, however, arrives full of confidence and as the main favorite for this part of the season, and any result other than winning titles will be considered a disappointment for the five-time major champion. Sinner remains in control, but the margin for error is beginning to shrink.
Jannik Sinner was runner-up in both of his appearances on the 2025 North American swing. He lost the finals in Cincinnati and the US Open to Carlos Alcaraz.
Ben Shelton: Defending the biggest title of his career
- DC Open: Semifinals (200)
- Canadian Open: Champion (1,000)
- Cincinnati Open: Quarterfinals (200)
- US Open: Third round (100)
Ben Shelton arrives in Montreal defending the title that transformed his career—and with his place inside the top 10 under genuine threat. The American was one of the names who stood out the most in North America one year ago, winning his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto — taking advantage of the absences of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic from the tournament. After solid performances in the tournaments leading up to the US Open, he ultimately retired due to injury in the third round against Mannarino, in a context where Shelton seemed to be the main contender to challenge the dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz.
Read also
One year later, Shelton left some doubts with his debut at the DC Open and an early quarterfinal exit. He will defend the title in Montreal this week, with clear pressure because failing to defend the trophy could see him fall outside the top-10. Ahead of the US Open, the objective will surely be to be at least among the top eight seeds, and for that Shelton will need to collect a strong amount of points between Canada and Cincinnati, ideally with deep runs at both tournaments. Shelton may have more immediate pressure than almost anyone outside Alcaraz.
Shelton retired injured during his third-round match at the 2025 US Open
Félix Auger-Aliassime: Can he repeat his home-swing resurgence?
- Canadian Open: Second round (30)
- Cincinnati Open: Quarterfinals (200)
- US Open: Semifinals (800)
More than 1,000 ranking points are on the line for Félix Auger-Aliassime, who built his return to the elite during last year's North American swing. Another player who feels comfortable in North American conditions, as he improved throughout 2025. While the Canadian was going through a period of deep doubts regarding his game, his run to the Cincinnati Open quarterfinals restored his confidence, and shortly afterwards he returned to the US Open semifinals for the second time in his career.
He added more than 1,000 points during the stretch and it was enough to position himself back inside the top-10 one year ago. It also gave him momentum to finish the season at an extremely high level, going on a winning streak, collecting titles, and qualifying for the ATP Finals for the first time. Canada represents the perfect opportunity for him to begin showing that he deserves his place among the top-5 and that he can be a true contender at the biggest tournaments. Another deep North American run would confirm that last year's resurgence was no one-off.
Auger-aliassime defeated Zverev, Rublev and De Minaur on his way to the semifinals of the 2025 US Open.
Taylor Fritz: Home swing now comes with real pressure
- DC Open: Quarterfinals (100)
- Canadian Open: Semifinals (400)
- Cincinnati Open: Round of 16 (100)
- US Open: Quarterfinals (400)
Few players traditionally enjoy North American hard courts more than Taylor Fritz—but that success now comes with significant ranking pressure. The American highlighted his campaign with a semifinal run at the Canadian Open and a quarterfinal appearance at the US Open, once again establishing himself among the most competitive players in North America. However, it was still a disappointing result for someone who had been the US Open runner-up one year earlier and who appeared to be the main local hope to fight for the title.
This time, Fritz has looked impressive since returning from injury and has reached three finals in his last four tournaments. With home support on his side and confidence at its highest, Fritz needs to at least repeat his results from one year ago, otherwise his place inside the top-10 will also be at risk. His run to the DC Open final once again shows that he is ready to achieve something important during the upcoming weeks. Fritz has enough form to defend these points—but expectations will be significantly higher this time.
Fritz reached the quarterfinals of the US Open and was eliminated by Novak Djokovic in four sets
Alexander Zverev: A golden chance to attack No. 1
- Canadian Open: Semifinals (400)
- Cincinnati Open: Semifinals (400)
- US Open: Third round (100)
Alexander Zverev may only be defending 900 points, but he arguably has the most to gain of anyone during the North American swing. Zverev arrived at the US Open one year ago with confidence after strong runs to the semifinals in Toronto and Cincinnati. He was defeated in the third round at Flushing Meadows by a strong Auger-Aliassime and ended the swing with fewer points than he appeared capable of collecting. This time, he looks one step closer to Sinner and Alcaraz, and his experience and pedigree make him appear as a consistent name in the later stages of the next big tournaments.
Zverev’s outstanding year — which includes a Roland Garros title and a Wimbledon final appearance — could put him in contention for the top spot in the rankings during the coming months. To achieve that, it will be crucial for him to be among the best performers during the North American swing and close the gap on Sinner, either through a poor result from the Italian or through new titles for the German.
This will be a key moment that defines Zverev’s chances heading into the end of the season and whether we will have a close battle for the top ranking spot, or if Sinner will fully establish himself as the leader of the rankings until 2027. If anyone is capable of putting genuine pressure on Sinner before the ATP Finals, it is Zverev.
Zverev reached consecutive semifinals at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati but was quickly eliminated in the first week at the US Open .
Novak Djokovic: ATP Finals hopes rest on another New York run
- US Open: Semifinals (800)
Novak Djokovic has fewer ranking points to defend than the other elite players—but every one of them comes from the US Open. The 39-year-old only played one tournament during the 2025 North American swing, but he still managed to be among the players who collected the most points. His run to the US Open semifinals earned him valuable points in the final part of the season, allowing him to remain in a qualifying position for the ATP Finals despite playing only a limited number of tournaments throughout the year.
This time, Djokovic’s situation is similar, as he maintains his place inside the top-10 despite competing in only a few events. His consistent deep runs at Grand Slams have allowed him to remain near the top of the rankings. Everything is extremely tight between No. 5 and No. 9 in the rankings, and assuming Djokovic’s schedule will be limited — or almost nonexistent — after the US Open, a strong campaign in New York will be decisive.
At the moment, the Serbian is in a position to qualify for the ATP Finals, and a good run at Flushing Meadows could confirm that one of the top-eight spots will remain in the hands of the 24-time Grand Slam champion. Another deep US Open run could ultimately determine whether Djokovic returns to Turin once again.
While Carlos Alcaraz enters the swing defending by far the biggest points haul, Alexander Zverev may be the player with the greatest opportunity to climb. Ben Shelton, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz all face significant pressure to repeat last year's home success, while Novak Djokovic's ATP Finals hopes may hinge almost entirely on another deep run in New York. By the end of the US Open, the ATP rankings could look dramatically different.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
claps 0visitors 0
Just In
Popular News
Latest Comments
- Writer states: "These different brands have slight differences that the players need to get used to" That is the dumbest F-ing thing I've heard in quite some time. A sports fan (I assume a fan) telling the World's Top Players they are, essentially, full of shit.
mandoist02-08-2026 - No Final today. 200% Humidity.mandoist02-08-2026
- Pro Sports is still pretending the Climate is not going to be a physical health factor -- getting hotter and more debilitating for animals and Humans. Well, it's not whether the climate is "going to" get hotter... IT IS ALREADY HERE!! Sport governing bodies and venues are -- and have been -- disregarding the warnings regarding the Future temperatures when it comes to outdoor events and potential injury (or even death) of fans & athletes alike. Are these financially greedy entities intentionally pretending Climate Change is not happening? Or merely gambling with their own futures, as well as the athletes' health and futures as well? It is time to pay attention to the warming trend and be empathetic toward their money-makers (athletes) -- not PATHETIC.mandoist29-07-2026
- CORRECTION Required: Jannik is WORLD NO. 1 and not 2. "The same can be said for Sinner and Djokovic. The """"World No.2""""" cited health reasons for not going, preserving his body for the Cincinnati Open ahead of the important US Open. If he was set to participate in both, it would be a lot of tennis with him likely to win both tournaments ahead of the trip to Flushing Meadows."J29-07-2026
- That does not sound very healthy
AceOfBase29-07-2026 - Interesting to see and watch the son of a great tennis player. Will he get better than his dad, or not :-)AceOfBase29-07-2026
- What clear-thinking player at the top of the field needs to Double-up with Ranking No. 469??mandoist27-07-2026
- It's refreshing to see a young and evolving player with enough intelligence to not fall for this 'Williams Charade'. Too bad the WTA -- and all the phony insiders -- cannot be Honest about No. 469 and put a stop to it. WTA has Qualifiers for a reason!!mandoist27-07-2026
- This one is Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs!mandoist27-07-2026
- WTA players have been the loudest voices against the ridiculous, mentally & physically dangerous scheduling for the past 2 seasons. But now that ATP is affected, all of a sudden it's a 'legitimate' issue. The WTA / ATP fat-cats need to leave their air-conditioned offices once in a while and experience no days off!mandoist26-07-2026
Loading