PREVIEW ATP Indian Wells 2025: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev headline a stacked draw

The 2025 Indian Wells is set to begin, featuring a star-studded draw led by two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Taylor Fritz. Our preview looks ahead to the tournament starting on Wednesday.

The absence of World No. 1 Jannik Sinner undoubtedly opens up opportunities for other players. This will be the first major tournament without the Italian due to his suspension. The first event of the Sunshine Double runs from March 5 to 16, with players vying to become the first Masters 1000 champion of the season.

With Jannik Sinner out, two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz appears to be the favourite to claim a third consecutive title. Indian Wells has been the Spaniard’s most successful Masters 1000 event, boasting a 16-2 (89%) record. However, the switch to a faster surface—more similar to Miami Open and US Open—could affect his game, as Tennis Paradise had long been the slowest hard court on tour.

Top seed Alexander Zverev is a major threat to Alcaraz’s dominance in Indian Wells. The German has never gone beyond the quarterfinals, but he arrives in top form as World No. 2 and a recent Australian Open finalist. Although his performances in recent weeks haven’t been stellar, his status as one of the tour’s best puts him a step ahead of the rest of the top 10. Sinner’s absence further clears the path for ‘Sascha.’

Novak Djokovic’s return raises questions about his level. After a strong campaign in Melbourne, the Serbian is back in Indian Wells. Despite winning five titles between 2008 and 2016, he has barely managed a handful of wins at the event since and has not gone beyond the fourth round, missing multiple editions. Still, if physically fit, Nole can beat anyone. It has also been confirmed that Andy Murray will rejoin his team.

In 2022, Taylor Fritz ended a 20-year drought for American champions (since Andre Agassi in 2001). That year, he defeated Rafael Nadal—snapping the Spaniard’s unbeaten run after his Australian Open triumph—making him the latest homegrown winner in Indian Wells.

Now ranked World No. 4, Fritz is the main local hope, especially after reaching his first Major final at the 2024 US Open. A second title here would put him on par with Pete Sampras and Jim Courier. However, he won’t carry all the pressure alone, as several other Americans have the potential to surprise this year.

Seven American players have received first-round byes. Alongside Fritz, Tommy Paul (No. 11) and Ben Shelton (No. 12) are strong contenders and await their second-round opponents. The 22-year-old Shelton, currently in the Race’s top five after his Australian Open semifinal run, seems ever closer to breaking into the top 10. Frances Tiafoe (No. 17) is another player capable of deep runs, having twice reached the US Open quarterfinals and the semifinals last year.

While they may be a step behind the top contenders, several players in excellent form could be dangerous.

Felix Auger-Aliassime boasts a 16-5 record this season with two titles and currently sits third in the ATP Race, trailing only Zverev and Sinner. The Canadian reached the final of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas but delivering another strong week.

Tsitsipas recently returned to the top 10 after his Dubai triumph, ending an 11-match losing streak in ATP 500 finals. The Greek hasn’t consistently displayed his best level, but if he finds inspiration, he’s a contender. His Dubai title—his first on hard courts in 18 months—could give him the confidence boost he needs.

Andrey Rublev was another big winner during the Middle East swing, claiming his 17th career title in Doha by defeating Britain’s Jack Draper in the final. The seventh seed benefits from a favourable early draw, at least until a potential quarterfinal clash. He doesn’t have many points to defend in the Sunshine Double (only one win and two losses last year), giving him a great opportunity to accumulate ranking points before the clay season, where he will defend a significant chunk of his 2024 points.

Other players to watch include Denis Shapovalov (No. 28), Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (No. 29), Matteo Berrettini (No. 30), and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No. 38), all capable of causing upsets. Czech players Jiri Lehecka (No. 24) and Tomas Machac (No. 20) have also made a habit of surprising top players and could shake up the draw.

Fans are eager to see Joao Fonseca in action again. The Brazilian teenager is widely regarded as the most promising young talent on tour. Despite his modest ranking of No. 80, he’s a dangerous floater in the early rounds. He defeated the world No. 9 Andrey Rublev in the first round of the Australian Open, his first top-10 win.

Jack Draper and Felix Auger-Aliassime could be among the first to face the 18-year-old, who has another chance to prove his potential after a disappointing first-round exit at his home event, the Rio Open, against Alexandre Müller. That loss came just weeks after he captured his first ATP title at the Argentina Open.

Learner Tien (19), Jakub Mensik (19), and Nishesh Basavareddy have also impressed in recent months and could spring more surprises. Not to mention Arthur Fils (20) and Alex Michelsen (20), who are already seeded and should not be underestimated.

In a 96-player draw, 32 seeds await their second-round opponents. However, several high-profile names missed the seeding cutoff and will have to battle through the first round. One of the biggest stories is the return of Nick Kyrgios, who will open against a qualifier. A win would set up a blockbuster second-round clash with Novak Djokovic.

Gaël Monfils faces Jan-Lennard Struff in a matchup between two powerful servers who are also comfortable rallying from the baseline—expect some thrilling exchanges. Other standout first-round clashes include Joao Fonseca (WC) vs. Jacob Fearnley and Jakub Mensik vs. Tomás Martín Etcheverry—both matches featuring players who could easily have been seeded but narrowly missed out.