Preview ATP Indian Wells Final: Jack Draper and Holger Rune set for blockbuster Next Gen showdown
ATP
With both the ATP and WTA Final in the same day, it is a double dose of finals day action at Indian Wells with a tie that perhaps wasn't expected but one that will likely be the most entertaining outcome as Jack Draper faces Holger Rune. Our preview looks ahead to the action.
Draper perhaps was more expected to reach this point. The Brit recently reached the final of Dubai and has been on an upward trajectory in recent months. But has yet to win a title of this size.
It has very much been results in a singular vacuum over a complete run. But he has done that this week in California and now has a top 10 reward and could have more to add to his collection.
Delightful Draper tackles Who's Who
This week he has taken down a who's who of top names. He started with Joao Fonseca 6-4, 6-0 showing that despite the hype around him, he still has some way to go before he is on Draper's level.
Fonseca has since bounced back and could be a Challenger champion before Miami. But he followed up by seeing off a resurgent Jenson Brooksby before defeating Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-4. Ben Shelton then followed in an American triple bill 6-4, 7-5 before finally he saw off Carlos Alcaraz.
Despite a second set 6-0, he won 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 in what was a masterclass from Draper and one of his best career wins to date. He managed also to battle VAR controversy in particular with a double bounce stealing the headlines. A player who has remained steadfast in his mission this week, he has shown some of the biggest grit and determination on tour coming back from injury time and again to show that he is one to be feared.
Jack Draper (pictured) took down Carlos Alcaraz on Saturday night.
Alcaraz was seen as the likely champion in waiting after Zverev and Djokovic's demise and the fact that Sinner wasn't playing during this tournament. He is currently serving a doping ban.
But Draper had different ideas as he managed to ease through against the Spaniard to set up this final. It would be a third ATP title for Draper and a first at ATP 1000 level. He has managed almost to seamlessly level up. He has gone from winning an ATP 250 to winning an ATP 500 to now being in an ATP 1000 final. Next stop this then a Grand Slam? Time will tell.
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Also as a side note, he brings much needed hope on the British side of the tennis spectrum. Andy Murray retiring last year left an almighty void. But Draper who was seen as the heir apparent has filled the gap. Even as a whole, Emma Raducanu has not pushed on.
While Katie Boulter has long been the flag bearer but has not started this season how she ended the last and could yet be British No.2 by the grass court season with Raducanu a few results away from usurping her mainly by default due to points falling off.
But Draper will be the new star to be lauded in British tennis and without adding too much expectation could be a standout in a country starved of prolonged success.
Match Statistics Draper vs. Alcaraz
| Draper | VS | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Service | ||
| 4 | Aces | 3 |
| 2 | Double Faults | 4 |
| 68% (47/69) | 1st Service Percentage | 56% (39/70) |
| 64% (30/47) | 1st Service Points Won | 64% (25/39) |
| 50% (11/22) | 2nd Service Points Won | 45% (14/31) |
| 56% (5/9) | Break Points Saved | 20% (1/5) |
| 67% (8/12) | Service Games | 64% (7/11) |
| Return | ||
| 36% (14/39) | 1st Return Points Won | 36% (17/47) |
| 55% (17/31) | 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (11/22) |
| - | Break Points Saved | - |
| Other | ||
| 1h 45m | Match Duration | 1h 45m |
Rampant Rune returns from the doldrums
To say Holger Rune's return to form is unexpected is an understatement. He has not shown since Wimbledon two years ago that he deserves to be on the same pedestal as the other Next Gen stars coming through.
But Rune has always had the talent and is an ATP 1000 champion something that Draper is not. He won the Paris Masters where he demolished Novak Djokovic famously. But since then he has not kicked on. He has gone through a myriad of coaching changes and injury has not been his friend.
But he has shown this week not to count him out just yet. His form recently though did not show this was coming. He lost early in both Buenos Aires and Acapulco deciding to take on the Golden Swing post Rotterdam.
Is Holger Rune back?
But as was the case with Zverev too, he was there as the big name and the Argentines in particular are the kings of these tournaments so cleaned up while the others were left scratching their heads.
Instead of continuing that though, Rune managed to have a swagger about him as he took to the court this week. He saw off Corentin Moutet in two sets before defeating Ugo Humbert in three. But the real results were against players already in form this week.
Those being Stefanos Tsitsipas. Seemingly unstoppable after recent title success and seemingly on his way back. While Tallon Griekspoor also has been superb recently. He was beaten in three by Rune. The real result came against Daniil Medvedev.
The Great Dane took apart Medvedev who like Rune has had doubts about his form ringing around his head as of late. But he managed to confound those to seal the win and really state his intentions. So this battle sees in reality a player on the rise vs a player with a point to prove. A real tantalising prospect.
Match Statistics Rune vs. Medvedev
| Rune | VS | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Service | ||
| 1 | Aces | 2 |
| 2 | Double Faults | 0 |
| 67% (47/70) | 1st Service Percentage | 50% (30/60) |
| 72% (34/47) | 1st Service Points Won | 67% (20/30) |
| 61% (14/23) | 2nd Service Points Won | 53% (16/30) |
| 50% (1/2) | Break Points Saved | 25% (1/4) |
| 91% (10/11) | Service Games | 73% (8/11) |
| Return | ||
| 33% (10/30) | 1st Return Points Won | 28% (13/47) |
| 47% (14/30) | 2nd Return Points Won | 39% (9/23) |
| - | Break Points Saved | - |
| Other | ||
| 1h 40m | Match Duration | 1h 40m |
Head to Head and Prediction
Head to Head wise it doesn't gleam too much as Holger Rune has defeated Jack Draper in their only career meeting. This was last year in Cincinnati as the Dane saw off the Brit 6-4, 6-2.
Albeit Draper perhaps had the last laugh as he reached the semi-finals of the US Open in the weeks that followed. So it is very much an equal playing field.
Also with Rune being wholly unpredictable, the prediction has to favour Draper and he will go in as favourite. The Brit albeit has never won an ATP 1000 but has been the standout player this week.
He will hope that he can produce his best tennis and his body doesn't break down to give himself the best chance. In terms of timing, it will take place at around 9pm GMT (British time), 10pm CET (European time) and 2:00pm local time. So set your watches for the final of Indian Wells!
Match Info - Jack Draper v Holger Rune
Start time (local): Sun, 16 Mar, 2:00 PM
Start time (your time): Mon, 17 Mar, 5:00 AM
Court: Stadium 1
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open
Round: Final
Head-to-Head
| Rune | Draper | |
|---|---|---|
| H2H Record | ||
| Total Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Ranking | ||
| Official Ranking | 13 | 14 |
| Race Ranking | 38 | 17 |
| Live Ranking | ||
| Live Ranking | 12 (+1) | 8 (+6) |
| Live Race Ranking | 8 (+34) | 4 (+14) |
| Bios | ||
| Age | 21 (29 Apr 2003) | 23 (22 Dec 2001) |
| Birthplace | Gentofte, Denmark | Sutton, London, UK |
| Residence | Monte Carlo, Monaco | London, UK |
| Height | - | 6'2" (188cm) |
| Weight | - | 165lbs (75kg) |
| Plays | Right-handed (two-handed backhand) | Left-handed (two-handed backhand) |
| Coach | Kenneth Carlsen, Lars Christensen | James Trotman (2021–present) |
| YTD W/L | 11-4 (73%) | 11-1 (92%) |
| YTD Titles | - | - |
| Career Titles | 4 | 2 |
| Prize Money | US $11,870,161 | US $5,436,539 |
| Past Meetings | ||
|
H Rune d J Draper ATP Cincinnati - Quarterfinal6-4 | 6-2 18 Aug 2024 |
||
Samuel GillEditor-in-Chief
Samuel Gill is the Chief Content Officer (CCO) of TennisUpToDate.com, a role he has held since 2020. He is responsible for editorial governance across the platform, including setting content standards, overseeing accuracy and consistency, and guiding long-term editorial strategy. Since joining, he has contributed more than 10,000 articles and editorial pieces across the TennisUpToDate network, playing a central role in the daily operation and development of the site.
Based in Leicester, Samuel has a broad background in tennis media. In his current role, he works closely with editors and writers to ensure coverage meets clear journalistic standards, with particular attention to verification, consistency, and timely updates when new information becomes available.
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