Preview ATP Qatar Open 2026 Semi-Finals | Alcaraz faces defending champion Rublev as Mensik and Fils ignite youth duel

The Qatar Open has already defined its semifinalists on Thursday’s matchday, and world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz emerges as the main favorite for the title – especially after the surprising elimination of Jannik Sinner at the hands of Jakub Mensik.

However, nothing is decided yet and this Friday the players will seek to secure their place in the final. Alcaraz will face the defending champion: Andrey Rublev, who with two titles in Doha is one of those who best adapts to these conditions. On the other side, a duel of young stars – two who are rebuilding after recent injuries – as Mensik will go up against Arthur Fils, who returned to the courts barely two weeks ago after eight months out due to injury.

World No. 1 Alcaraz will undoubtedly be the favorite in this matchup, and after Sinner’s exit in the quarterfinals the question that remains is whether anyone can stop Carlos Alcaraz. He has already reached 10 consecutive victories this season and arrives as the recent champion of the Australian Open.

The elimination of the Italian undoubtedly comes as good news for Alcaraz, who can increase his distance from Sinner in the rankings and prevent the Italian from reclaiming the top spot in the coming months – considering that Sinner does not defend points until May, a period in which up to four Masters 1000 events will be played.

The seven-time Grand Slam champion defeated the Frenchmen Arthur Rinderknech and Valentin Royer without setbacks on his way to the quarterfinals, where Karen Khachanov caused him problems, but “Carlitos” managed to find solutions – especially maintaining concentration and a strong level from start to finish. Few players can trouble Alcaraz, and even fewer can sustain that level over a long battle.

Precisely that is one of the unknowns for Andrey Rublev (No. 14), two-time champion in Doha – and defending champion after defeating Jack Draper in the 2025 final. The conditions have been favorable to the Russian, with his forehand running at full speed in recent matches. He defeated Jesper de Jong, Fabian Marozsan and Stefanos Tsitsipas all in straight sets. In fact, he has not conceded break points since his opening match against De Jong and arrives full of confidence. Will it be enough to compete on equal terms with Alcaraz?

The head-to-head favors Alcaraz 4-1 – having won the last three consecutively. Rublev’s only victory came back at the Madrid Open in 2024 – their only meeting on clay – while Alcaraz has prevailed in the three encounters played on hard courts.

An interesting semifinal between two members of the new generation of players who have made a name for themselves in recent seasons and can already be considered a reality on the Tour despite their youth.

The Czech Jakub Mensik had his breakthrough by winning the title at the Miami Open 2025, making a significant jump in the rankings and gradually beginning to find stability and feel comfortable when carrying the favorite’s role. The 20-year-old positions himself as No. 13 in the live rankings and knows he already has a well-earned name among the strongest players on the Tour.

The Czech comes from delivering the upset of the tournament: a victory over world No. 2 Jannik Sinner, his ninth top-10 win and the most important victory of his career in terms of ranking. A Sinner who on hard courts has appeared almost unbeatable in recent years did not have his best performance – although in part it was the level of the Czech that led Sinner to constant inaccuracies. Clear credit goes to Mensik, who begins to see up close the chance of entering the top-10.

First he will have to face the renewed Arthur Fils in the semifinals, who found confidence earlier than expected after months out of competition. Since Roland Garros 2025 he practically missed the entire season (playing only one tournament for the remainder of the year), and returned to the courts barely two weeks ago – after eight months of absence.

A great campaign from the world No. 40, who is now one step away from returning to an ATP final – something few would have imagined so soon, considering that a month ago he chose to skip the Australian Open because he had not yet fully recovered his physical condition.

Mensik and Fils were protagonists at the Next Gen ATP Finals 2024 – where they faced each other and the Frenchman claimed the victory. They have had only one new clash since then: none other than at the Miami Open 2025 – precisely on Mensik’s path to his first Masters 1000 title.