Is this accurate? Different ranking system sees Djokovic lead Alcaraz on Hard Courts

Sunday, 01 October 2023 at 06:30

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The unofficial ELO ranking system places Novak Djokovic as the best player on hard surfaces for the year, ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, and shows variations in the top-10.

The ATP Ranking has often been criticized for not being truly accurate in assessing the top players. Despite efforts to improve it, the system considers results in tournaments over the past 52 weeks and is often subject to criticism.

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The ELO ranking system appears as an alternative that uses new variables to determine the list of the strongest players in the last year, and it often results in several changes compared to the top-10 in the ATP Ranking. However, in many cases, the titles and victories still align with the ranking.

If we look at the titles, Djokovic and Medvedev both have 4 titles on hard courts this year, but Djokovic can celebrate winning both the Australian Open and the US Open on this surface. Then, Sinner and Fritz also have two titles on hard courts this year.

The rest of the players on the list have all won at least one title on hard courts this year, with the exception of Andrey Rublev, who has not achieved this feat but still holds the 6th place in the rankings.

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However, it's important to note that the ELO ranking system does not solely consider titles or the quantity of wins but also factors in the quality of opponents faced to generate a score.

“The principle behind any Elo system is that each player’s rating is an estimate of their strength, and each match (or tournament) allows us to update that estimate. If a player wins, her rating goes up; if she loses, it goes down.”

The Elo ranking system, for example, removes Holger Rune, who is the world No. 4, from the top 10 for hard courts and includes Hubert Hurkacz, currently ranked 17th in the world.

Player	ELO Ranking	ATP Ranking
Novak Djokovic	1	1
Carlos Alcaraz	2	2
Daniil Medvedev	3	3
Jannik Sinner	4	7
Taylor Fritz	5	8
Andrey Rublev	6	6
Alexander Zverev	7	10
Alex De Minaur	8	12
Stefanos Tsitsipas	9	4
Hubert Hurckacz	10	17

One of the qualities of the Elo system is that the rating increases or decreases based on the opponent against whom the match is played. For example, the system considers that defeating Carlos Alcaraz (2nd) will have a greater impact on the player's position than defeating Zverev (7th), and an even greater impact than defeating Hurkacz (10th).

Conversely, losing to Djokovic will have a relatively minor effect on the player's rating, as Djokovic is considered the strongest player according to the system. The impact on the rating increases progressively as the opponent's rating decreases.

This applies to the ATP Tour and especially Grand Slam tournaments, where some players manage to advance to later rounds by facing lower-ranked opponents than their peers.

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For instance, in this year's Wimbledon, Sinner reached the semifinals without facing any player in the top 75, whereas in the same tournament, he defeated two top-20 players. This situation is similar to Alcaraz, who also defeated two players ranked within the top 25.

“There were 50 singles matches at the Davis Cup finals, and Elo picked the winner in 36 of them, for an accuracy rating of 72%. The ATP rankings picked the winner (in the sense that the higher-ranked player won the match) in 30 of them, for an accuracy rating of 60%,” (about 2019 Davis Cup).

Relevant Tennis

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The current top 10 ATP players on hard according to the Hard Raw ELO Rankings of Tennis Abstract. 📊 #1 🇷🇸 Djokovic #2 🇪🇸 Alcaraz #3 🇷🇺 Medvedev #4 🇮🇹 Sinner #5 🇺🇸 Fritz #6 🇷🇺 Rublev #7 🇩🇪 Zverev #8 🇦🇺 De Minaur #9 🇬🇷 Tsitsipas #10 🇵🇱 Hurkacz Agreed?

8:20 PM · Sep 28, 2023

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Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist

Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.

His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.

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