Novak, Rafa, Roger? Analysing the Chances of the Leading Men’s Singles Contenders at Wimbledon

As we head for the sultry summer months, attention starts to turn towards strawberries, Pimms, and minimally-branded white clothing.

It’s almost time for Wimbledon’s return. The grass courts at SW19 have been a playground for the big names in men’s singles tennis in recent years, and while Andy Murray’s chances are, regrettably, slim as he continues to battle injury, some familiar foes are still in the hunt.

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer have a combined age of 108, but they will surely play a pivotal role in determining who wins the tournament, which will get underway on June 28. Indeed, the Wimbledon 2021 men's betting odds suggest that the old guard have an excellent chance of progressing to the business end of the tournament, although two young upstarts may stand in their way.

So, who are the main contenders for Wimbledon glory?

It’s a testament to the good place that Novak Djokovic is in right now that he has progressed to the French Open semi-final. Remember, clay is not his favourite surface, as evidenced by the fact that just one of his current Grand Slam title haul of 18 has come at Roland Garros, but he is working hard, showing why he's a class above.

The switch to grass will please him greatly, and his run to the last four at the French Open has been perfect preparation ahead of what will be a tilt at a sixth Wimbledon crown. It would also be a hat-trick of wins at SW19 for a player whose immense physicality shows no signs of slowing down.

While clay is anathema to Djokovic, Rafael Nadal feels a similar way about grass – just two of his twenty major titles have come on the slick surfaces of the All England Club. That’s not to say that the Spaniard can’t prevail at Wimbledon, but his win ratio is not representative of a player as short as 6/1 in some places to lift the trophy.

A trouble-free run to the semis at Roland Garros was expected, but at 35, it seems unlikely that Nadal will suddenly fall in love with grass court tennis.

In recent years, Roger Federer has skipped the clay court campaign altogether in an attempt to get himself in peak condition for Wimbledon. It’s a strategy that has worked – he won the title in 2017 after missing the French, and also has a semi-final at SW19 to his name after taking the early part of the summer off.

So, to see the Swiss ace playing in Paris recently set the alarm bells ringing – a lack of competitive action, not aided by injury and surgery, meant that the 39-year-old felt compelled to play the French. He dropped sets in the second and third rounds before withdrawing ahead of his fourth round game, and while it would be a fairy tale if Federer could win Wimbledon in the year he turns 40, the chances of that look remote at best.

The Young Pretenders

According to the bookies, two young aces that are the best of enemies are the most likely to challenge the experienced trio. Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas may not get along, but they both have a common interest – the Wimbledon trophy.

Medvedev, the world number two, is perhaps a little further ahead in his ascent towards Grand Slam stardom. Already a two-time major finalist, having lost in the decisive matches of the Australian and U.S. Open, the Russian has claimed a ‘big’ title at the ATP Finals in 2020.

Tsitsipas has the ideal game for grass, however, the French Open semi-finalist’s record at Wimbledon – only once has he reached the fourth round – leaves a lot to be desired.

If that's the case, will 2021 be Djokovic’s year at Wimbledon once again?