The US Open seeding race is on a knife-edge - Ten players, two tournaments, one goal: A US Open seed

The battle for US Open seeding has quietly become one of the biggest stories of the North American hard-court swing. A handful of ranking points over the next two weeks could be the difference between a protected path in New York—or drawing one of the tournament favourites in the opening round.

With the Canadian Open and Cincinnati still to come, players hovering around the top 32 are fighting for far more than ranking points. Every victory could move them into a seeded position, while every defeat could leave them exposed to nightmare first-round draws.

A seeded position can completely change a player's path at a Grand Slam. The US Open features 32 seeds in singles, with players ranked between No. 1 and No. 16 unable to face each other before the fourth round. The top eight seeds lead separate sections of the draw, meaning they cannot meet before the quarterfinals and remain protected from early blockbuster matchups.

On the women's side, injuries to Victoria Mboko and Hailey Baptiste have already opened two additional seeded spots, meaning players ranked as low as No. 34 are currently projected to enter the tournament protected. Meanwhile, the men's field remains fully loaded, with all major contenders expected in New York and the first 32 players in the ATP rankings set to fight for seeded positions.

As of the current rankings — before the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open stretch. Fernandez currently occupies one of the final projected seeded positions, meaning every match over the next fortnight could decide whether she receives a protected draw—or finds herself facing a top-eight player in the opening week. The Canadian does not defend points during the upcoming weeks, meaning every victory she earns could make the difference between a protected draw and a potentially much tougher opening round at Flushing Meadows.

Fernandez is expected to climb a few positions in the rankings during the next weeks, meaning securing a seed is largely in her own hands. The 2021 US Open runner-up has already guaranteed herself a seeded position at both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open, giving her opportunities to face lower-ranked opponents early in those tournaments and build momentum before New York. Seeding matters more for her aggressive style and also she has experience as a former finalist in this tournament. Few players have more to gain from securing a seed.

Sakkari is another player currently projected to be seeded, but she will need strong results in the coming weeks to secure her place. The Greek had been seeded in 23 consecutive Grand Slam main draws — most of them as a top-eight seed — before that streak ended at Roland Garros 2025.

Since then, Sakkari has played six consecutive Grand Slam main draws without being seeded, forcing her into significantly more difficult early-round matchups. This season she has already faced Andreeva, Noskova and Tauson early in major tournaments, although she managed victories against the latter two.

A seeded position at the US Open would give Sakkari a better chance to find rhythm in New York before facing the tournament favorites. After struggling with consistency over the past year, avoiding an elite opponent in the opening rounds could be an important factor in rebuilding confidence. Sakkari was previously former World No.3 and always seeded and now will try to get back to that. Not been the easiest, but one that is feasible with a good Grand Slam run.

The Croatian currently sits at No. 35 in the world, missing out on a seeded position by only a few places. She will need victories in Canada or Cincinnati — along with favorable results from players around her — to move into the top 32 before the US Open seedings are finalized.

Vekic does not defend points during this stretch, increasing her chances of making a late move. However, she will likely need to win multiple matches in at least one of the upcoming WTA 1000 events to complete the climb into seeded territory.

A year ago, she came close to securing a seed but narrowly missed out, and the consequences were immediate. After defeating Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the first round, she faced fourth seed Coco Gauff in the second round at the US Open. Although Gauff had to work for the victory, the matchup showed the difference a seeded position can make.

The 20-year-old Czech has been steadily climbing the rankings and is now close to entering the US Open seeded positions. The upcoming Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open tournaments provide her with opportunities to collect the points needed to move several places higher before the final seedings are determined.

Bejlek started her Toronto campaign with a victory, but her reward was a second-round meeting against Iga Swiatek — a clear example of how difficult early draws can become for unseeded players. If she falls against Swiatek, Cincinnati will represent her final opportunity to become seeded, although she would likely need at least a third-round run — or deeper — to achieve that goal. She is only 20 and would be a seed at a Grand Slam for the first time. She also won the Abu Dhabi Open earlier in the season. Albeit drawing the likes of Iga Swiatek immediately would be the scenario she'd be trying to avoid by getting to this point.

The Indonesian talent has quietly continued climbing the rankings over the last year, showing a unique playing style that has drawn comparisons to Ash Barty. However, she remains a developing player who is still searching for the consistency required to become a regular threat against the top names on tour.

Hard courts have been one of the strongest surfaces in her young career, making the North American swing an important opportunity to gain ranking positions. A year ago, she did not even compete in Canada or Cincinnati, meaning she has plenty of room to improve her position before the US Open.

Her unconventional style makes her a difficult opponent, and a breakthrough against elite players appears to be a matter of time. Tjen has won only two of her last eight matches, although one of those victories came against Leylah Fernandez in her Wimbledon debut, before pushing Kasatkina to three sets. She faces a difficult opening match in Canada against Samsonova, but remains within reach of entering the top 34 and becoming seeded at a Grand Slam for the first time. One good fortnight in theory could change her career and she would go from being a contender to being a threat.

American Brandon Nakashima recently had a notable campaign at the DC Open, reaching the semifinals and securing his return to the top 30. Just a few weeks ago, the possibility of becoming a seeded player seemed distant, but today he would be directly inside the seeded positions. However, he cannot celebrate yet, as he defends points in Canada and Cincinnati and has several names immediately behind him.

The jeopardy is that he's defending points and if he loses early, he could drop out and see the likes of Buse, Bergs among others pass him so it is not only the US Open where it matters, it matters in the context of the rest of his season.

Another young player who has taken significant steps forward recently is Alexander Blockx. The 2023 Australian Open junior champion is still in the process of adapting to the demands of the ATP Tour during his first full season as a professional, but he is already close to breaking into the top 30. Since reaching the Next Gen ATP Finals final last year, the Belgian has continued moving forward in his career and, on fast surfaces, can surprise anyone.

The Belgian currently occupies the final projected seeded position. Every ranking point now matters, with several rivals ready to overtake him before the seedings are locked.

The young Peruvian has been one of the sensations of the Tour this season, and without too much attention around him, he has managed to establish himself in the upper section of the rankings. He currently sits at No. 33 in the live rankings and does not defend points during the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open stretch.

Buse surprised the tennis world by winning his first ATP title a few months ago at the ATP 500 Hamburg Open, defeating players such as Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik and Tommy Paul on his way to the trophy. Although he has not maintained too much consistency since then, the 22-year-old still has plenty to prove.

Although his biggest achievement came on clay courts, the Peruvian is far from being a one-surface specialist, like many other South American players. He was already seeded at Wimbledon — although he was eliminated in the first round — and now has good chances of arriving as a seeded player at the US Open. However, he will need to confirm that position with at least one good result in the weeks before the final Grand Slam of the season.

Belgian tennis is enjoying a great moment with Blockx and Bergs in a close battle to become their country's No. 1, but both players are also fighting directly against each other for a seeded spot at the US Open. Bergs, 27, is currently No. 34 in the live rankings, only a couple of positions behind Blockx and separated by just 30 points.

The possibilities are practically identical, although Blockx has a slight advantage because he has fewer points to defend in the upcoming weeks. However, both players depend on themselves to secure a seeded position in New York, but they will likely need at least a couple of victories during the next Masters 1000 tournaments.

Matteo Arnaldi managed to change the direction of his season after his impressive run to the Roland Garros semifinals, climbing from outside the top 100 into the top 40. However, the weeks following the French Open were not particularly positive, and the Italian missed several chances to collect enough points that could have already secured his place among the seeded players.

At the DC Open, Arnaldi also suffered an injury against Lorenzo Musetti in the first round, forcing him to retire and complicating his chances ahead of the US Open. It remains to be seen whether the Italian can find his best physical condition and break into the seeded positions.

He currently sits at No. 35, but after accounting for the points defended by each player in Canada and Cincinnati, Arnaldi would move up to around No. 33, overtaking players such as Bergs or Buse. His chances of arriving as a seeded player will depend on winning a few matches in the upcoming weeks and achieving a better result than his direct rivals.

With nearly 20 players separated by only a handful of ranking points around the cut-off, the battle for US Open seeding could become one of the defining stories of the North American swing. For some, a seed would provide a far smoother route through the opening week. For others, missing out could mean an immediate showdown with one of the tournament favourites before their campaign has even begun.