Aryna Sabalenka's quest for World No. 1: Can she overtake Iga Swiatek?

Aryna Sabalenka is increasingly close to reclaiming the world No. 1 ranking, although she must first perform well at the Wuhan Open in a tight race against Iga Swiatek for the top spot by the end of the year. The Belarusian had an impressive streak of 15 consecutive wins, which came to an end in the quarter-finals in Beijing against Karolina Muchova.

With titles at the Cincinnati Open and the US Open under her belt, Sabalenka appears to be closing the gap on Swiatek, who just a couple of months ago seemed nearly unbeatable this season with a lead of over 4,000 points in the WTA Race.

However, Swiatek has not accrued many points since the French Open, having played only three tournaments since then. She exited early in the third round of Wimbledon, lost in the semi-finals at Cincinnati, and reached the quarter-finals at the US Open—results that left the world No. 1 dissatisfied.

Swiatek was expected to return this week for the WTA 1000 Wuhan Open, but following her recent split with her coach, she decided to skip the tournament, with her next appearance likely at the WTA Finals. The WTA Race is incredibly tight, with Swiatek leading with 8,285 points, while Sabalenka has 8,101.

Sabalenka needs to reach the semi-finals to surpass Swiatek in the Race, although this won’t immediately affect the rankings. If Sabalenka were to win the title, she would narrow the gap in the rankings to just 70 points just before the Finals.

Both players are still defending points from the WTA Finals. Swiatek was the unbeaten champion last year, which earned her 1,500 points that she still holds today. On the other hand, Sabalenka reached the semi-finals (specifically against Swiatek) and will only defend 625 points.

Thus, Sabalenka is in control of her destiny to finish the year as world No. 1, as Swiatek will not be able to earn points at the Finals; at best, she will retain her points. The 26-year-old Belarusian only needs to improve on her performance from last year, which means winning three matches in round robin play or reaching the final at the WTA Finals with two round robin victories. If Swiatek fails to defend her title in Riyadh, Sabalenka would virtually secure the No. 1 spot for 2024.