Coco Gauff could become World No.1 in early 2024 as ranking points fall off for big names

Coco Gauff is set to begin the 2024 season with a strong chance of reaching the world No. 1 spot as Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka lose early-year points.

The American tennis player had an incredible season, winning her first WTA 500 at the Washington Open, followed by her first WTA 1000 at the Cincinnati Open, and her maiden Grand Slam at the US Open. Additionally, she reached the semifinals of the WTA Finals. This impressive finish propelled her to the world No. 3 ranking, just behind Swiatek and Sabalenka.

At the start of 2024, Gauff will defend 280 points for the Auckland Open title and 240 points for reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open. Simultaneously, Sabalenka faces the challenge of defending titles at Adelaide and the Australian Open, totaling 2,470 points—exactly the same difference that currently separates Gauff from the world No. 2.

Above them is Swiatek, who reached the same fourth round as Gauff in the Aussie Open but then defends 1,370 points in the Doha and Dubai Opens.

The 19-year-old American could capitalize on the first two months of the year to narrow the gap with Swiatek and even surpass Sabalenka. A strong performance from Gauff in the "sunshine double" will be crucial, as she defends fewer than 300 points between Indian Wells and the Miami Open. In comparison, Swiatek defends 360 points, and Sabalenka nearly 1,200 points.

Sabalenka faces the toughest challenge in defending the most points in the early months of the year. The gap with Gauff for the second spot could quickly narrow. As the months progress, especially during the clay season, Gauff has the opportunity to climb towards the top of the rankings. Swiatek, on the other hand, defends a significant portion of her points between February and June, including the French Open title, where she already has three trophies.