Emma Raducanu drops out of the top 100 for the first time in over two years: how a stress fracture ended a promising season

Emma Raducanu fell to No. 107 in the WTA rankings on Monday, with 710 points, ending a run of more than two years inside the top 100 that began in July 2024. It is the first time she has been outside that threshold since her recovery from the surgeries of 2023, and it is the clearest sign yet of what a stress fracture in her right shin has cost her in the second half of 2026.

The drop says more about the calendar than about her form. Raducanu has not played since the Queen's Club final on June 14, when she lost to Donna Vekic 6-0, 7-6(6). She withdrew from Wimbledon on the eve of the tournament, missed the North American hard-court swing and the US Open, and did not play in Beijing.

Every week without a match has removed a result from last year's total, and she had no new points to replace them. Her situation is not unusual for an injured player, but for Raducanu it adds another chapter to a recurring story.

Her climb earlier in the year makes the drop look steeper. She reached No. 23 in March, her highest position since 2022, and she was No. 31 two weeks before the injury became public. She has lost 84 places since March and 76 since the Queen's final.

Raducanu's 2026 record will end at just 11-10, with only 21 matches played — fewer than half the 50 she completed in 2025, when she went 28-22. That season offered encouraging signs of improvement in her ability to remain physically available for much of the year, despite some minor injuries and precautionary withdrawals along the way.

This time, it had looked as though Raducanu was finally finding a way to stay fit and build momentum. Her run at Queen's Club was particularly encouraging, with two wins over top-20 opponents, Sorana Cirstea and Iva Jovic, both of whom had established themselves among the higher-ranked players throughout the season.

It was a complicated year even before the injury, with an illness that took her out of Miami and limited her spring. Yet two finals, in Cluj-Napoca in February and at Queen's in June, kept her ranking high relative to a limited schedule of around 10 tournaments. The Cluj final was her first since the 2021 US Open title, and together they show a player who was producing results when she was healthy enough to compete.

The stress fracture is the latest in a long list of injuries. A wrist problem disrupted Raducanu's 2022 season, and in 2023 she underwent surgery on both wrists and an ankle. Her campaign ended after Stuttgart, and she fell outside the top 100 following Madrid, reaching No. 289 by November. She gradually worked her way back in 2024, then completed 50 matches in a season for the first time in 2025, finishing the year at No. 29 after reaching the Miami quarterfinals and Washington semifinals.

However, that season also ended prematurely. Raducanu retired from her match in Wuhan last October due to dizziness, and the resulting illness forced her to miss the remainder of the year. The recurring pattern of promising stretches followed by medical setbacks has become a defining feature of her career, distinguishing her situation from those of players whose rankings decline primarily because of their results on court.

Raducanu's career has been marked by injuries since she burst onto the global tennis scene at the 2021 US Open, winning the title after coming through qualifying and breaking into the top 10 a few months later.

However, she has never quite managed to sustain that level. Once she lost the ranking points earned from her Flushing Meadows triumph, her climb back up the rankings took several years. Each time she appeared close to rediscovering her best form, physical problems intervened and disrupted her progress.

For now, Raducanu's immediate outlook is to wait. She is not expected to return before 2027 and is absent from the entry lists for the final tournaments of the season. That timing could prove significant.

Players can qualify for a protected ranking after six months away from the tour, and since Raducanu's last match was on June 14, she would become eligible in mid-December if she does not compete again before then. Her protected ranking would be No. 31, the position she held after the Queen's Club final.

That would be particularly important for the Australian Open. If her ranking remains outside the top 100 when entries close in December, she would likely need to go through qualifying at a Grand Slam for the first time since her breakthrough run to the 2021 US Open title.

A protected ranking would allow her to enter the main draw directly, avoiding that additional challenge. Wildcards could still provide opportunities at other tournaments, but a protected ranking would give her a more stable foundation for the opening months of 2027.

That is the question tennis fans have continued to ask since that historic September in 2021, when Raducanu produced arguably one of the most unexpected Grand Slam campaigns in tennis history. The Brit appeared poised to revolutionise the WTA Tour, but injuries, coaching changes and a lack of consistency have prevented her from rediscovering the level that captivated the tennis world in New York more than five years ago.

The doubts surrounding Raducanu are not only about whether she can remain physically fit, but also whether she can consistently perform at the highest level. She will turn 24 in November, making her a relatively young player on tour with several years potentially ahead of her. Perhaps her remarkably early breakthrough has also led to excessive expectations about how quickly she should have re-established herself among the elite.

Only seven players inside the current top 20 are younger than Raducanu, while just ten players in the top 50 are younger than the Brit. In other words, she still has time to reach her full potential, even if that does not happen in 2027 but over the following couple of seasons. Players often reach their peak between the ages of 25 and 28, and Raducanu is only approaching that stage of her career.

However, time alone will not resolve the challenges she faces. The 2021 US Open champion remains a respected name on tour, and her best tennis has shown that she can beat virtually anyone when everything clicks.

The bigger question is whether she can sustain that level over several consecutive matches, as she did during her extraordinary run at Flushing Meadows. Winning one match against an elite opponent is one thing; doing it repeatedly across a Grand Slam fortnight is another.

In 2027, Raducanu's first priority will be to demonstrate that she can compete consistently without further physical setbacks. Results should follow if she manages to establish that foundation, but the opening six months of the season could prove particularly important.

Major early-season events, including the Australian Open and the WTA 1000 tournaments in Dubai and Doha, will offer valuable opportunities to rebuild her ranking. Once her protected ranking is no longer available, she could face the prospect of returning to Grand Slam qualifying or competing in lower-level tournaments to regain ground.

Talent does not disappear, even after a lengthy absence from competition. Nevertheless, without confidence and the physical resilience required to withstand the demands of the tour, it is difficult to see Raducanu returning to the top 20 in the immediate future.

The women's game is exceptionally competitive, with a group of around 10 to 15 players demonstrating an ability to maintain a high level throughout the season and remain consistently competitive at the biggest events.

In terms of natural ability, Raducanu is not necessarily far behind the leading players. The difference lies in her consistency, confidence and physical condition, which have repeatedly prevented her from building on promising results. At this level, those factors can matter as much as raw talent, if not more. Her future will depend less on whether she can reproduce the tennis that won her the US Open and more on whether she can sustain that level long enough to make it count again.