How Elena Rybakina can jump above Iga Swiatek into the top two in WTA rankings for first time at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

The WTA rankings could be in for a major shuffle with the second WTA 1000 tournament of the year set to commence. The Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships will be hosting some of the best players in the world, but the absence of the world number one and two leaves a huge opportunity for Elena Rybakina to rise to a new career high.

The competition in Dubai will still be very high standard. The likes of Rybakina, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula and the defending champion Mirra Andreeva will be leading the competition as the Middle East swing culminates with a bang.

However, just days before the tournament is set to commence, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek both announced that they would pull out of the event. Sabalenka due to not feeling 100% after huge Australian Open disappointment and Swiatek due to changing her schedule plans as the Sunshine swing begins in March.

Both Swiatek and Rybakina were not at their best in the Qatar Open. Their progress was stopped in the quarter-finals in three set thrillers to Maria Sakkari and Victoria Mboko respectively. It is a surprise for the recently imperious Rybakina who won the Australian Open title. This is compared to three-time champion Swiatek who is yet to achieve the expected heights she sets herself on the court, albeit these are very high.

The six-time grand Slam champion fell outside the top two last year, dropping as low as eighth in the world until a resurgent grass campaign which saw her triumph at Wimbledon allowed her to rise back to number two, with chances to even dethrone at Sabalenka as number one. However, she has not been able to keep up the great form which saw her win another Grand Slam and a Cincinnati Open title.

Swiatek's choice to miss the Dubai tournament is not a huge surprise after her comments stating that she would start to miss some tournaments in 2026 due to the packed WTA schedule. Even for such a big event such as a 1000 tournament she is willing to protect her body for future events.

When she next steps on the court, however, she may not be world number two anymore. This could have been the case in Qatar if Rybakina won the title.

A lot of the big names failed to make it through to the last four in Qatar, with Victoria Mboko the highest ranked player who featured in those matchups. In turn, this meant limited movement in places in the top 10, aside from the defending champion Anisimova dropping a couple of places after a second round exit.

The ranking system works with points taken off a year after they were earned. For example, Swiatek collected 215 points from last year's event in Dubai, and these will come off her ranking to leave her on 7,588 points.

Rybakina, on the other hand, reached the semi-finals which meant that 390 points will come off. However, she will get the added bonus that 108 points will be added to the total as she is substituting her next best result as it is more than the Dubai result.

This means that Swiatek will be sat on 7,588 while Rybakina lurks 347 points behind with 7,241 points to her name. The 24-year-old is now a sitting duck after confirming her withdrawal from the event. There is still a lot of work for Rybakina to do. A semi-final will bump her up to world number two with 390 points being enough. The quarter-final will get her 215 points which would put her trailing her rival by a short number.

Obviously, the semi-final will be a great result, but the Kazakh will be wanting to win the title in the country she now lives. She will go in as one of the heavy favourites due to her prior form and will be looking to capitalise on this.