How Iga Swiatek's Australian Open exit can affect WTA Ranking significantly including for Coco Gauff

Iga Swiatek's unexpected elimination at the 2024 Australian Open against Linda Noskova has opened up opportunities for Aryna Sabalenka (No. 2) and Coco Gauff (No. 3) to narrow the gap with the Polish player and dream of dethroning her in the near future.

The 4-times Grand Slam champion only reached the fourth round of the Aussie Open, resulting in a drop of 110 points, which, for now, doesn't jeopardize her No. 1 position. This is particularly crucial because Aryna Sabalenka, ranked No. 2, is defending her title in Melbourne and has no chance to gain points. If she fails to secure the trophy, she could be surpassed by Gauff in the rankings.

Gauff and Sabalenka are on the same side of the draw, setting up a potential semifinal clash. In the live rankings, Swiatek holds 9770 points, Sabalenka has 7145, and Gauff currently has 6660. In the best-case scenario, if they live up to their favoritism for the trophy, one of them would leave the semifinals with 780 points, and the other with 2000. The resulting rankings would be as follows:

Iga Swiatek (9770)

Coco Gauff (8420)

Aryna Sabalenka (7685)

Iga Swiatek (9770)

Aryna Sabalenka (8905)

Coco Gauff (7200)

In the upcoming WTA 1000 Doha Open in mid-February, Swiatek will be defending her title, followed by the Dubai Open final the following week. This means that next month, Swiatek defends 1500 points out of the 2000 she will play for.

Consequently, her chances of adding points are limited, and if she fails to match her previous results, she will experience a decline in her points. Sabalenka could seize this opportunity to close the gap or even reclaim the No. 1 spot, as she only has 65 points to defend, while Gauff defends 605 points.

With the exits of Swiatek and Rybakina in the upper part of the draw, an opportunity arises for lower-ranked players to advance to the later rounds. Svitolina and Azarenka are the favorites to reach the semifinals. If Svitolina achieves this, she will return to the top-15, while Azarenka won't gain points as she is defending the same round as last year. In addition, the young player Noskova, who eliminated Swiatek, could make her debut in the top-25 if she reaches the semifinals.

In the next quarter, Qinwen Zheng and Jasmine Paolini are also favorites for the semifinals. If Zheng reaches the semifinals, she will enter the top-10, while Paolini would appear in the top-20 for the first time in her career.