Iga Swiatek will miss the WTA Finals for the first time since 2019: who takes the last spot in Indian Wells?

Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 08:30

Iga Swiatek has withdrawn from the Ningbo Open with a left thigh injury, and with that she has lost her last realistic route to the WTA Finals. It will be the first time since 2019 that she misses the season-ending championships.

The injury appeared during her Wuhan semifinal against Maja Chwalinska, which she lost 7-5, 6-1 after a medical timeout and with her thigh bandaged. She announced her withdrawal on Tuesday, citing the need for rest and recovery.

With Swiatek out of the picture, the last place in Indian Wells is a two-player race. Karolína Muchova holds the eighth and final spot in the WTA Race and is not entering any more tournaments, which means her total is fixed. Marta Kostyuk is the only player who can still pass her, and the arithmetic is demanding.

Swiatek's season ends without the Finals

Swiatek's 2026 had its high point in Toronto, where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final for her first title of the year, and a late push that included the Wuhan semifinal. She did not get past the quarterfinals at any of the four Grand Slams and finished the Race in ninth place with 4,189 points, 546 behind Muchova. Reaching -at least- Ningbo quarterfinals was a necessary condition for her to stay in contention, and the injury ended the chance.

Her absence is also a reminder of how narrow the margins have been this year. She reached semifinals at Rome, Cincinnati and Wuhan, plus the Toronto title, and still could not build a gap large enough to make qualification safe. For a player who last missed the Finals in 2019, the result shows how a season without a deep Grand Slam run, even with four WTA 1000 semifinals or better, can end outside the top eight.

Year	Venue	Result	Record
2020	—	Qualified for the WTA Finals, but tournament was cancelled	—
2021	Guadalajara	Round-robin stage	1–2
2022	Fort Worth	Semifinals	3–1
2023	Cancún	Champion	5–0
2024	Riyadh	Round-robin stage	2–1
2025	Riyadh	Round-robin stage	1–2
2026	Indian Wells	Absent	-

Swiatek is on course to finish the year inside the top 10 for a fifth consecutive season, but her absence from the WTA Finals will give the eight qualified players an opportunity to earn points and extend their lead over the Pole.

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As a result, she could fall outside the top eight ahead of the Australian Open at the start of next season. This would leave her facing a tougher draw than usual, potentially meeting any higher-ranked player as early as the fourth round.

The last seat: Muchova leads, Kostyuk chases

Seven of the eight singles places are settled: Rybakina, Sabalenka, Andreeva, Pegula, Gauff, Svitolina and Linda Nosková. Nosková qualified under the Grand Slam champion rule after winning Wimbledon, and Svitolina's place, confirmed after Swiatek's Wuhan loss, is her first at the Finals since 2019, when she was the runner-up after winning the title in 2018. The remaining place is contested by the two players below.

Player	Race position	Points	Gap to Muchova
Karolína Muchova	No. 7	4,735	Leader
Iga Swiatek	No. 9	4,189	546 (withdrawn)
Marta Kostyuk	No. 10	3,920	815

Muchova, who won Doha in February for her first WTA 1000 title, is skipping Ningbo and is not registered for Tokyo, so she cannot add points. Her position depends entirely on whether Kostyuk can close an 815-point gap in two events.

What Kostyuk needs

Kostyuk is the third seed in Ningbo, which is a WTA 500 event. She received a first-round bye and plays Ekaterina Alexandrova in the round of 16, and she can then play Tokyo's Pan Pacific Open, also a WTA 500, the following week. Those two tournaments are her last chance, because the WTA Finals begin on November 8 and a third-event turnaround seems as extremely difficult.

Marta Kostyuk applauds after her first round victory at US Open 2026.

The scenarios below are calculated here, using the standard WTA 500 points of 500 for the champion and 325 for the finalist. They assume that every point counts fully in her Race total, which depends on how many results she already has. Reports differ on what she needs: one preview says she needs to win one event and reach the other final, while another source says two titles are required.

Kostyuk's result in Ningbo and Tokyo	Points gained	New total	Passes Muchova (4,735)?
Champion in both	+1,000	4,920	Yes, by 185
Champion in one, finalist in the other	+825	4,745	Only by 10, if all points count
Champion in one, semifinalist in the other	+695	4,615	No
Finalist in both	+650	4,570	No

The two-title route is the only one that clears the gap with a margin. The second route, a title and a final, leaves her 10 points ahead on paper and with no room for error in how the Race counts her best results. Whatever the exact route, Kostyuk has to win at least one of the two events, and she probably has to win both.

Her own season gives some reason to believe it is possible. She won Madrid in May as the 26th seed for her first WTA 1000 title, beating Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 7-5, and in Tokyo she would face a field that includes Rybakina, Svitolina and Iva Jovic. The path is difficult, but she has already shown that she can win a big title from outside the seeded group.

An alternate in the WTA Finals does not play unless a qualified player withdraws through injury or illness, and alternates are on site during the event. Iva Jovic is already listed as an alternate, and whichever of Muchova or Kostyuk misses the eighth place becomes one too.

Rank in Race	Player	Race points
9	~~Iga Swiatek~~	~~4,189~~
10	Marta Kostyuk (alternate)	3,920
11	Iva Jovic (alternate)	2,931
12	Maja Chwalińska	2,755
13	Diana Shnaider	2,613
14	Elise Mertens	2,540

Swiatek is not expected to be an option: she has lost her direct route, and with her injury and reported end of season, an appearance as an alternate is unlikely.

For Muchova, who is 29, a first Finals appearance would cap a year that began with her first WTA 1000 title. For Kostyuk, it would be a first appearance after a season in which she won Madrid and has played at the top of the tour.

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The race will be decided in the next two weeks. If Kostyuk loses to Alexandrova or fails to win in Ningbo, Muchova can plan for Indian Wells. If she wins Ningbo and does the same in Tokyo, the last spot will go to a player who would have looked unlikely to catch up before this month.

Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist

Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.

His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.

In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.

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