Preview US Open 2024 Women's Semi-Final: Favourite Aryna Sabalenka faces hometown hero Emma Navarro

The first semi-final match of the US Open will be contested between Emma Navarro and Aryna Sabalenka, so let’s take a close look at what might happen in this one with our Match Preview.

Emma Navarro is a player that isn’t well known in tennis circles even though she’s been around for a while. She spent much of her earlier career grinding out matches on the ITF level, which allowed her to make a smooth transition to the WTA Tour. Once she did, the American was immediately one of the better players and quickly progressed through the rankings.

This year has been the first year she’s regularly among the top players, and she’s done really well for herself. With the most recent run at the US Open, Navarro is through to the Top 10, which is a major milestone for a player who not that long ago wasn’t even in the Top 100.

All of what she’s achieved is a direct product of her work, though, as she’s been working really hard and earning her wins the hard-fashioned way. Even this semi-final in New York didn’t come easy, but she had to grind through the matches. Perhaps her win over Paula Badosa was actually her easiest match overall because it didn’t go the distance. She’s a very interesting player in the context of modern tennis. She doesn’t have the overwhelming power like some players have, but she is rather aggressive.

She is a very smart player who utilizes different ways of winning a point, not afraid to really go forward either. It’s great to have a player who mixes as much as she does because as exciting as hard-hitting tennis is, it does get a bit repetitive at times. There are only so many tennis matches you can watch where Sabalenka crushes forehands at a higher speed than ATP players. That hard-hitting style is generally what troubles Navarro the most. We saw that against Marta Kostyuk, who was pretty close to beating her.

When she faces a player who is a very natural hitter and smashes the ball really hard, she can get into some trouble. She has to improvise and wait for errors because she won’t hit through a player.

That doesn’t happen with even some weaker opponents, let alone some power hitters like Aryna Sabalenka. So with that in mind, where does that leave her chances for the final? It’s a very good question because they aren’t that great. If there is one player she wouldn’t want to face, it’s probably Sabalenka, but that’s true for all tennis players. The Belarusian tennis player has played and looked so strong.

She won the Cincinnati Open event without dropping a single set and dominated some pretty big names along the way. She bested both Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula, who have gone far in this draw as well, so we can safely say that she’s the best-performing player in the past 2-3 weeks. What works for Sabalenka is what always worked for her, and it’s the power. She’s just too overwhelming for her opponents, especially on return.

What changed recently compared to the past was her hitting the ball very consistently. She had this power a few years, but one of those balls was going wide or in the net. These days, she’s crushing multiple shots in a row without any problems and even cleaning the lines. That sort of precision and hitting ability makes her a nightmare to play on a court like this. Add in the serve, which has been really good lately as well, and you have a player that is almost impossible to beat.

And yet Emma Navarro did it earlier this year. It happened at the Indian Wells Masters, and it mostly came about because Sabalenka was pretty dreadful. She struggled with her timing and smashed many balls wide, which is the only way Navarro can beat her.

She can’t really get into a hitting contest with her. She needs to mix it up and change pace often so that Sabalenka makes a lot of errors. If she does, then great, she’s close to winning, but if she doesn’t, then you’re in trouble. You’re going to be in trouble anyway, so you might as well try something outrageous. That’s just what you have to do against the best in the world.

Another reason why Sabalenka lost that match was that it was the first time she faced Navarro. The American has an interesting style, so it can confuse you a little bit. The next time they faced was on clay in Rome, and Sabalenka was able to win that match much easier, beating her in two simple sets. Most people assume something similar will happen here, and it’s only logical. Everything we’ve seen from the players so far tells us that this is going to be a very tough one for the American.

She’s played superb tennis, but it’s mostly a matchup problem. There isn’t much she can do against a player like Sabalenka. The serve will be the most important part of her game.

If she doesn’t serve well and gives Sabalenka a lot of looks on the second serve, she’s going to get crushed. That’s exactly what happened to Qinwen Zheng because the opening shot was just too poor. Navarro has been up and down with her serve, and that’s not going to be good enough. She needs to be brilliant to win, and time will tell whether she will.

Overall, it should be an interesting semi-final because the crowd will be into it. They’ll have an American player to cheer for, and Navarro is actually a native New Yorker, so there is that connection as well. Overall, it should be a good one, with Sabalenka being the clear favourite. Whether she wins, though, will be seen on the day of the match, September 5th, 2024.