WTA Race Update: The final sprint to Riyadh — Pegula steady, Andreeva shaky, Rybakina and Paolini battling to the wire

Following the China Open, the WTA Race has defined new qualifiers for the WTA Finals—with five of the eight total spots now secured for Riyadh. The China Open champion, Amanda Anisimova, was one of those who secured her place in the WTA Finals, leaving only three spots left to be determined. The Wuhan Open is the key event that could significantly change the standings.

All four Grand Slam champions of the season have already secured their spots. Aryna Sabalenka (9,620 points) leads the Race with a lead of over 1,300 points over her immediate pursuer, Iga Świątek (8,273 points). The Belarusian—the US Open champion—has the first chance to end the season at World No. 1, while Świątek—the Wimbledon champion—still maintains hopes of taking the top ranking by the end of the season with a good result in Wuhan and then at the WTA Finals.

The third spot belongs to Anisimova, who, as the China Open champion, added 1,000 points and a chance to climb to third place in the Race. The 24-year-old star will have the chance to become the American No. 1 by the end of the year if she maintains her position, though three of her compatriots are still close behind.

The other confirmed names include Roland Garros champion Coco Gauff (5,584 points), who sits in 4th place, and Australian Open champion Madison Keys (4,450 points), who is currently 6th in the Race. Although Keys is not yet mathematically guaranteed to finish in the top 8 (the qualification cut is at 5,030 points), Major champions only need to finish the year in the Top-20 to secure their qualification spot for the WTA Finals. Therefore, even if she finishes outside the top 8, Keys has secured her place in Riyadh.

Three spots remain to be clinched, and the player at the forefront to secure the next one is also American, Jessica Pegula (4,598 points)—5th in the Race with a slight advantage over Keys. She has not yet guaranteed her spot, but a deep run in Wuhan will confirm her place in the WTA Finals for the fourth consecutive year—and she would potentially become the 4th American to qualify this season, as well as the oldest at 31 years old. Consecutive campaigns to the semifinals at the US Open and China Open gave a good points boost to Pegula, who was watching from afar a couple of months ago but managed to turn her season around and take advantage of the hard-court tournaments.

With Pegula virtually confirmed for the Finals, the 7th spot would currently be held by 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva (4,319 points), who is not in great form after early eliminations at the US Open, China Open, and most recently, the Wuhan Open first round. Her two early-season WTA 1000 titles (Dubai, Indian Wells) have kept her in the top zone all season, and she still has one last tournament to confirm her qualification, as she will compete in the WTA 500 Ningbo Open next week. Few scenarios could exclude Andreeva, but she cannot yet take her qualification for granted, despite maintaining a comfortable distance from her two pursuers, Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini.

The 8th spot appears tight until the very last moment, and this week in Wuhan will be key for both players. To date, Rybakina is in 8th position with 3,806 points, while Paolini follows closely with 3,751 points—just over 50 points separating them. As both compete in the Wuhan Open—currently in the Round of 32—every win will be crucial, and the player who can reach at least one round further than her rival will temporarily take the eighth spot at the end of the tournament.

Paolini and Rybakina are on separate sides of the draw, and while it seems unlikely, there are still scenarios where both could qualify and frustrate Andreeva's ambitions in the final part of the year. If we were to see a Rybakina–Paolini final in Wuhan, both could displace Andreeva to 9th position, leaving everything uncertain during the last weeks of competition.

Both the Kazakh and the Italian know that the final spot for the WTA Finals is tight, and for this reason, both will have a busier end-of-year schedule than the rest of the players in the top zone. After the Wuhan Open, both Paolini and Rybakina will compete in the WTA 500 Ningbo Open and Tokyo Open, where again every victory could be key in defining the qualifier. Although it is most likely that the last spot will be decided between the two, the possibility of both displacing Andreeva remains latent.

Nevertheless, other names are not ruled out, although they are much further behind. Russia's Ekaterina Alexandrova (3,136 points) is still more than 600 points behind Rybakina. This means she still has a chance if she wins the title this week in Wuhan—or at least reaches the final and performs well in the next two tournaments she will play (also Ningbo and Tokyo). Other names that could secure a last-minute qualification include Clara Tauson, Belinda Bencic, Linda Noskova, and Naomi Osaka.